Network Effects in Alternative Fuel Adoption: Empirical Analysis of the Market for Ethanol

This paper investigates the importance of network effects in the demand for ethanol-compatible vehicles and the supply of ethanol fuel retailers. An indirect network effect, or positive feedback loop, arises in this context due to spatially-dependent complementarities in the availability of ethanol fuel and the installed base of ethanol-compatible vehicles. Marketers and social planners are interested in whether these effects exist, and if so, how policy might accelerate adoption of the ethanol fuel standard within a targeted population. To measure these feedback effects, I develop an econometric framework that considers the simultaneous determination of ethanol-compatible vehicle demand and ethanol fuel supply in local markets. The demand-side of the model considers the automobile purchase decisions of consumers and fleet operators, and the supply-side model considers the ethanol market entry decisions of competing fuel retailers. I propose new estimators that address the endogeneity induced by the co-determination of alternative fuel vehicle demand and alternative fuel supply. I estimate the model using zip code level panel data from six states over a six year period. I find the network effect to be highly signifi cant, both statistically and economically. Under typical market conditions, entry of an additional ethanol fuel retailer leads to a 12% increase in consumer demand for ethanol-compatible vehicles. The entry model estimates imply that a monopolist requires a local installed base of at least 204 ethanol-compatible vehicles to be pro table. As an application, I demonstrate how the model estimates can inform the promotional strategy of a vehicle manufacturer. Counter-factual simulations indicate that subsidizing fuel retailers to offer ethanol can be an effective policy to indirectly increase ethanol-compatible vehicle sales

How stationary are the internal tides in a high-resolution global ocean circulation model?

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/107442/1/jgr_shriveretal_internaltidenonstationarity_2014.pd

How stationary are the internal tides in a high‐resolution global ocean circulation model?

The stationarity of the internal tides generated in a global eddy‐resolving ocean circulation model forced by realistic atmospheric fluxes and the luni‐solar gravitational potential is explored. The root mean square (RMS) variability in the M 2 internal tidal amplitude is approximately 2 mm or less over most of the ocean and exceeds 2 mm in regions with larger internal tidal amplitude. The M 2 RMS variability approaches the mean amplitude in weaker tidal areas such as the tropical Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean, but is smaller than the mean amplitude near generation regions. Approximately 60% of the variance in the complex M 2 tidal amplitude is due to amplitude‐weighted phase variations. Using the RMS tidal amplitude variations normalized by the mean tidal amplitude (normalized RMS variability (NRMS)) as a metric for stationarity, low‐mode M 2 internal tides with NRMS < 0.5 are stationary over 25% of the deep ocean, particularly near the generation regions. The M 2 RMS variability tends to increase with increasing mean amplitude. However, the M 2 NRMS variability tends to decrease with increasing mean amplitude, and regions with strong low‐mode internal tides are more stationary. The internal tide beams radiating away from generation regions become less stationary with distance. Similar results are obtained for other tidal constituents with the overall stationarity of the constituent decreasing as the energy in the constituent decreases. Seasonal variations dominate the RMS variability in the Arabian Sea and near‐equatorial oceans. Regions of high eddy kinetic energy are regions of higher internal tide nonstationarity. Key Points Internal tide stationarity measured by RMS variability normalized by amplitude Internal tide stationarity correlated with tidal amplitude Strong mesoscale eddies or currents decrease stationarity of internal tidesPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/107478/1/jgrc20664.pd

Nonlinear cascades of surface oceanic geostrophic kinetic energy in the frequency domain

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/111877/1/jpo_frequencycascades_2012.pd

Indirect Evidence For Substantial Damping of Low-Mode Internal Tides In the Open Ocean

A global high-resolution ocean circulation model forced by atmospheric fields and the M2 tidal constituent is used to explore plausible scenarios for the damping of low-mode internal tides. The plausibility of different damping scenarios is tested by comparing the modeled barotropic tides with TPXO8, a highly accurate satellite-altimetry-constrained tide model, and by comparing the modeled coherent baroclinic tide amplitudes against along-track altimetry. Five scenarios are tested: (1) a topographic internal wave drag, argued here to represent the breaking of unresolved high vertical modes, applied to the bottom flow (default configuration), (2) a wave drag applied to the barotropic flow, (3) absence of wave drag, (4) a substantial increase in quadratic bottom friction along the continental shelves (with wave drag turned off), and (5) application of wave drag to the barotropic flow at the same time that quadratic bottom friction is substantially increased along the shelves. Of the scenarios tested here, the default configuration (1) yields the most accurate tides. In all other scenarios (2–5), the lack of damping on open ocean baroclinic motions yields baroclinic tides that are too energetic and travel too far from their sources, despite the presence of a vigorous mesoscale eddy field which can scatter and decohere internal tides in the model. The barotropic tides are also less accurate in the absence of an open ocean damping on barotropic motions, that is, in scenarios (3) and (4). The results presented here suggest that low-mode internal tides experience substantial damping in the open ocean

On eddy viscosity, energy cascades, and the horizontal resolution of gridded satellite altimeter products

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 43 (2013): 283–300, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-11-0240.1.Motivated by the recent interest in ocean energetics, the widespread use of horizontal eddy viscosity in models, and the promise of high horizontal resolution data from the planned wide-swath satellite altimeter, this paper explores the impacts of horizontal eddy viscosity and horizontal grid resolution on geostrophic turbulence, with a particular focus on spectral kinetic energy fluxes Π(K) computed in the isotropic wavenumber (K) domain. The paper utilizes idealized two-layer quasigeostrophic (QG) models, realistic high-resolution ocean general circulation models, and present-generation gridded satellite altimeter data. Adding horizontal eddy viscosity to the QG model results in a forward cascade at smaller scales, in apparent agreement with results from present-generation altimetry. Eddy viscosity is taken to roughly represent coupling of mesoscale eddies to internal waves or to submesoscale eddies. Filtering the output of either the QG or realistic models before computing Π(K) also greatly increases the forward cascade. Such filtering mimics the smoothing inherent in the construction of present-generation gridded altimeter data. It is therefore difficult to say whether the forward cascades seen in present-generation altimeter data are due to real physics (represented here by eddy viscosity) or to insufficient horizontal resolution. The inverse cascade at larger scales remains in the models even after filtering, suggesting that its existence in the models and in altimeter data is robust. However, the magnitude of the inverse cascade is affected by filtering, suggesting that the wide-swath altimeter will allow a more accurate determination of the inverse cascade at larger scales as well as providing important constraints on smaller-scale dynamics.BKA received support from Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-11-1-0487, National Science Foundation (NSF) Grants OCE-0924481 and OCE- 09607820, and University of Michigan startup funds. KLP acknowledges support from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution bridge support funds. RBS acknowledges support from NSF grants OCE-0960834 and OCE-0851457, a contract with the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, and a NASA subcontract to Boston University. JFS and JGR were supported by the projects ‘‘Global and remote littoral forcing in global ocean models’’ and ‘‘Agesotrophic vorticity dynamics of the ocean,’’ respectively, both sponsored by the Office of Naval Research under program element 601153N.2013-08-0

Global modeling of internal tides within an eddying ocean general circulation model

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/91777/1/25-2_arbic_hi.pd

Social Ties and User Generated Content: Evidence from an Online Social Network

We use variation in wind speeds at surfing locations in Switzerland as exogenous shifters of users' propensity to post content about their surfing activity onto an online social network. We exploit this variation to test whether users' social ties on the network have a causal effect on their content generation, and whether conent generation in turn has a similar causal effect on the users' abilty to form social ties. Economically significant causal effects of this kind can produce positive feedback that generate multiplier e&curren;ects to interventions that subsidize tie formation. We argue these interventions can therefore be the basis of a strategy by the rm to indirectly faciliate content generation on the site. The exogenous variation provided by wind speeds enable us to measure this feedback empirically and to assess the return on investment from such policies. We use a detailed dataset from an online social network that comprises the complete details of social tie formation and content generation on the site. The richness of he data enable us to control for several spurious confounds that have typically plagued empirical analysis of social interactions. Our results show evidence for significant positive feedback in user generated content. We discuss the implications of the estimates for the management of the content and the growth of the network

Effects of stencil width on surface ocean geostrophic velocity and vorticity estimation from gridded satellite altimeter data

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90421/1/2011JC007367.pd