Modeling of Atmospheric Transport and Deposition of Heavy Metals in the Katowice Province

A large part of Poland's heavy industry, notably hard coal mining, ferrous and nonferrous metallurgy and power generation, is located in the Katowice province. Therefore, this heavy industrialized region, which is populated by four million people, experiences considerable problems with air pollution. In the METKAT study launched by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis we attempt to model atmospheric depositions of arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn) which are among the highest in Europe. The applied modeling approach consists of performing detailed simulations of atmospheric transport and deposition of heavy metals with horizontal grid spacing of 5 km within one 150x150 km cell of the EMEP grid covering the Katowice province. For this purpose we implemented the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion and Deposition (LPDD) model driven by two mesoscale/regional meteorological models. Preliminary deposition calculations for the entire 1992 year and a series of sensitivity experiments for cadmium were run using relatively simple but computationally efficient hydrostatic meteorological model (MESO). The deposition results from the MESO/LPDD modeling applied to the mesoscale domain were supplemented by contributions from other emission sources in Europe calculated with the aid of the Heavy Metals Eulerian Transport (HMET) model. The performed sensitivity tests indicate that the calculated depositions depend primarily on the quality of emission data (magnitude, spatial distribution and aggregation). Also land use data seem to be relatively important when estimating the location and magnitude of peak depositions. The proposed modeling approach shows some potential to reproduce local maxima in the deposition fluxes of heavy metals which cannot be resolved by long range transport models. However, very high Cd deposition values observed in the region cannot be reproduced by the model with available emission inventory even when emission from selected sources was increased by two orders of magnitude. The model calculations do not take into account reemission of particulates from post-mining areas and waste dumps, which may contribute considerably to ambient concentrations. A receptor-oriented modeling approach based on an influence function concepts is proposed as a tool to further investigate contributions of different potential emission sources to the observed depositions. A series of additional 24-hour simulations for idealized synoptic conditions were run with the LPDD model linked to the Colorado State University RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System). The purpose of these simulations was to investigate the potential effect of regional scale topography on mesoscale atmospheric transport within the Katowice province. Although the terrain of this province is not very complicated, the Sudeten and Carpathian Mountains surrounding this region from the south may significantly affect transport and deposition there

A Time Dependent Zonally Averaged Energy Balance Model to be Incorporated into IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect)

This paper is the first report of a collaborative effort between IIASA and The Netherlands' National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RTVM), Bilthoven, on developing an integrated model for assessing, in a time-dependent manner, the socio-economic and ecological effects of a given greenhouse gas scenario. This involves linking greenhouse gas emission accounting frameworks, models for calculating changes with time of greenhouse gas concentrations and climatic change, and ecological changes such as shifts in growing zones for natural vegetation and agricultural crops, and effects on forest growth, water supply and sea level rise. This paper reports on one of the first steps in this linkage: modifying the climate module of RTVM's Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) to provide appropriate temperature and precipitation scenarios for the ecological models. The work follows in the tradition of both institutions in developing science-based tools for policy analysis

Heavy Metals Contamination in Eastern Europe: Background Load from the Atmosphere

In recent years there has been an increased interest in trace metals in the atmosphere and the environmental effects of their deposition. This is to large extent because heavy metals can accumulate in the biosphere and may be toxic to living systems. On the basis of IIASA's TRACE model, the total (wet plus dry) deposition of As, Cd, Pb and Zn has been estimated for Eastern Europe. These are annual averages for rural areas, and relate to the situation in Europe in the mid-1980s. The maximum deposition value is 3.5 mg m^{-2} yr^{-1} for As, 1.5 mg m^{-2} yr^{-1} for Cd and 50 mg m^{-2} yr^{-1} for Zn. All these maxima occur in Southern Poland. The highest total deposition of Pb (15.0-20.0 mg m^{-2} yr^{-1}) has been computed for western Czechoslovakia and also for southern Poland. Deposition levels throughout most of Eastern Europe are at least one or two orders of magnitude greater than observed in remote parts of the world. The annual average concentration of metals in some rural areas are lower, but within a factor of two of drinking water guidelines. This is cause for concern because some short-term concentrations are almost assuredly much higher than the annual average. Because of long-range transport, there is a very significant transboundary exchange of heavy metals within Eastern Europe. As with acid-causing pollutants, the problem of heavy metals contamination in the region depends on the reduction of this transboundary pollution

IIASA's Work on Climate Change: Assessing Environmental Impacts

This Status Report is adapted from a lecture presented by Matthias Jonas at the Institute for Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna, May 1992. In his lecture, Dr. Jonas clearly summarizes the status of the work being carried out within the Climate Change Projections Study at IIASA. This work involves linking a policy-oriented climate change model, the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE), to models of ecological change such as the Global Vegetation Model, the Timber Assessment Model, and the Regional Acidification INformation and Simulation (RAINS) model. These models were at least partially developed at IIASA. The result of this linkage work, which is being carried out in collaboration with the Netherlands National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM), and possibly other institutes, is intended to be a tool to help policy makers assess in a rapid and time-dependent way changes in regional ecology resulting from various greenhouse gas emission scenarios

Modeling Atmospheric Transport of Heavy Metals Over Europe in the 50 km Grid System

Within the framework of the collaborative project between IIASA and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute in Oslo, a new version of the Heavy Metals Eulerian Transport (HMET) model has been developed. This new version is presented in this paper, as well as the results of the model simulation for one year period of transport (1992). The main difference between the old version (here termed as HNIET-150), and a new version called HNIET-50, is the model grid size reduced from 150km in the old approach, to 50km in the latest model version. Higher spatial resolution is important for estimating atmospheric load of heavy metals to European soils. The HMET-50 model was used to simulate atmospheric transport and deposition in Europe of arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn). Necessary emission data for this simulation were compiled at IIASA. Meteorological input for the HMET-50 model was prepared at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute in Oslo. Maps of computed total depositions in Europe for all metals are presented. In addition, concentration maps, as well as dry and wet deposition maps, for all metals are also shown in the paper. The change of the model grid size influenced the locations of the deposition maxima. Because of the better resolution of emissions, computed concentrations are slightly closer to measured values. However, this fact has to be confirmed when more measurements for 1992 become available

Numerical Approximation of the Transport Equation: Comparison of Five Positive Definite Algorithms

IIASA's Regional Acidification INformation and Simulation (RAINS) model will be used to develop and assess international control strategies to reduce emissions of acidifying pollutants. These strategies will involve the expenditure of large sum of money; it is important, therefore, to assess the effect of uncertainties in the model on its results. An important component of the RAINS model is its atmospheric transport component; this paper reports the results of examining several algorithms for solution of the atmospheric transport equation. It also represents a joint effort between IIASA scientists and those in the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics in Vienna

Estimation of GCM Temperature Trends for Different Emission Scenarios with the help of the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE)

How useful are General Circulation Models (GCMs) for policy makers? Of course, they are considered to be the most powerful models that are presently available for predicting future climates and for carrying out research. Their disadvantage is that they are very time-consuming and very expensive to run for any greenhouse gas emission or concentration scenario. For that reason, GCMs have been run only for a small number of scenarios. However, policy makers are interested in being able to analyze a large number of scenarios. The Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) developed by the National Institute for Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM) in the Netherlands is a scientifically based, policy oriented model that can calculate the effect of different greenhouse gas emissions on global surface air temperature and sea level rise. The major advantage of IMAGE is its quick turnaround time. Its disadvantage is that it gives only global values of surface temperature and sea level rise, which have insufficient spatial resolution to estimate ecological impacts on a regional basis. We propose a methodology for combining the fast turnaround time and time-dependent surface temperature results of IMAGE with the spatial resolution of GCMs to provide a linkage between IMAGE and models of ecological change that could provide policy-makers with valuable information about the consequences of different levels of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions

Cadmium, Zinc and Lead Load to Agricultural Land in the Upper Oder and Elbe Basins During the Period 1955-1994

This paper presents the results of an analysis on the total load of cadmium, zinc and lead to agricultural soils during the period 1955-1994. Total heavy metal load will serve as input for the soil modeling part of the wider IIASA study on "Regional Material Balance Approaches to Long Term Environmental Planning." The project area embraces the northwestern part of the Czech Republic (Bohemia and Morawia), southwestern Poland (Upper and Lower Silesia), and the south of the former G.D.R. (Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt, Brandenburg, Thueringen). Agricultural soils receive heavy metal via atmospheric deposition and via certain agricultural practices, the most important ones are: P-fertilizer application and manuring. Atmospheric deposition loads were derived from computations within the atmospheric modeling part of the IIASA IND Project. On the basis of a literature search focusing on the countries of the project area heavy metal concentration factors for P-fertilizer and manure were established. The fertilizer and manure application during the study period was derived from diverse statistical sources. The analysis shows the importance of regional differences and of the changes in time. This refers to both, the total load of heavy metals to the soils and the share of agricultural or atmospheric load in total load. The atmospheric load is highest in the 60s or 70s and then shows a downward trend. The highest P-fertilizer and manure application rates are in the 70s or 80s (and consequently the heavy metal load due to these practices is high). After the economic changes in 1989 there is a sharp decline in fertilizer application. The agricultural share in total load is very low in the case of lead, amounting to less than 10% during the whole period. Agricultural share in total load of cadmium and zinc varies considerable over time and shows high regional differences. For cadmium the agricultural share in total load ranges between 10 and 60 percent, in the case of zinc between 30 and 80 percent. A general feature here is, the higher the total load, the higher the share in atmospheric deposition. A preliminary mass balance for cadmium and lead in soils shows possible implications for long-term build up of heavy metals in soils. The release of Cadmium from soils via erosion and leaching contributes as so called diffuse load to total Cadmium load to rivers. The mass balance gives estimates for this diffuse load. Finally sources of uncertainties are discussed. They refer in particular to spatial variations that cannot be traced in this type of analysis. Close to major heavy metal emittents or in areas where uncontrolled sewage sludge application took place, the heavy metal load may be significantly higher than estimated in this study