Phase transition in the globalization of trade

Globalization processes interweave economic structures at a worldwide scale, trade playing a central role as one of the elemental channels of interaction among countries. Despite the significance of such phenomena, measuring economic globalization still remains an open problem. More quantitative treatments could improve the understanding of globalization at the same time that help a formal basis for comparative economic history. In this letter, we investigate the time evolution of the statistical properties of bilateral trade imbalances between countries in the trade system. We measure their cumulative probability distribution at different moments in time to discover a sudden transition circa 1960 from a regime where the distribution was always represented by a steady characteristic function to a new state where the distribution dilates as time goes on. This suggests that the rule that was governing the statistical behavior of bilateral trade imbalances until the 60's abruptly changed to a new form persistent in the last decades. In the new regime, the figures for the different years collapse into a universal master curve when rescaled by the corresponding global gross domestic product value. This coupling points to an increased interdependence of world economies and its onset corresponds in time with the starting of the last globalization wave.Comment: Final versio

Galactic Cannibalism: the Origin of the Magellanic Stream

We are in a privileged location in the Universe which allows us to observe galactic interactions from close range -- the merger of our two nearest dwarf satellite galaxies, the LMC and SMC. It is important to understand the local merger process before we can have confidence in understanding mergers at high redshift. We present high resolution Nbody+SPH simulations of the disruption of the LMC and SMC and the formation of the Magellanic Stream, and discuss the implications for galaxy formation and evolution.Comment: 2 pages, 1 figure, to appear in "The Evolution of Galaxies II: Basic Building Blocks", (2002) ed. M. Sauvage et al. (Kluwer

High-resolution N-body Simulations of Galactic Cannibalism: The Magellanic Stream

Hierarchical clustering represents the favoured paradigm for galaxy formation throughout the Universe; due to its proximity, the Magellanic system offers one of the few opportunities for astrophysicists to decompose the full six-dimensional phase-space history of a satellite in the midst of being cannibalised by its host galaxy. The availability of improved observational data for the Magellanic Stream and parallel advances in computational power has led us to revisit the canonical tidal model describing the disruption of the Small Magellanic Cloud and the consequent formation of the Stream. We suggest improvements to the tidal model in light of these recent advances.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, LaTeX (gcdv.sty). Refereed contribution to the 5th Galactic Chemodynamics conference held in Swinburne, July 2003. Accepted for publication in PASA. Version with high resolution figures available at http://astronomy.swin.edu.au/staff/tconnors/publications.htm

Ecological Risk Assessment for the Temperate Demersal Elasmobranch Resource

In March 2021, the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (Department) convened an ecological risk assessment (ERA) of the fisheries that access the Temperate Demersal Elasmobranch Resource (Resource). ERAs are conducted by the Department as part of its Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management framework

An analysis of life expectancy and economic production using expectile frontier zones

The wealth of a country is assumed to have a strong non-linear influence on the life expectancy of its inhabitants. We follow up on research by Preston and study the relationship with gross domestic product. Smooth curves for the average but also for upper frontiers are constructed by a combination of least asymmetrically weighted squares and P-splines. Guidelines are given for optimizing the amount of smoothing and the definition of frontiers. The model is applied to a large set of countries in different years. It is also used to estimate life expectancy performance for individual countries and to show how it changed over time

Upstream cyclone influence on the predictability of block onsets over the Euro-Atlantic region

Atmospheric blocking has been shown to be a phenomenon that models struggle to predict accurately, particularly the onset of a blocked state following a more zonal flow. This struggle is, in part, due to the lack of a complete dynamical theory for block onset and maintenance. Here, we evaluate the impact cyclone representation had on the forecast of block onset in two case studies from the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment field campaign and the 20 most unpredictable block onsets over the Euro-Atlantic region in medium-range forecasts from the ECMWF. The six-day forecast of block onset in the case studies is sensitive to changes in the forecast location and intensity of upstream cyclones (one cyclone for one case and two for the other case) in the days preceding the onset. Ensemble sensitivity analysis reveals that this is often the case in unpredictable block onset cases: a one-standard deviation change in 1000-hPa geopotential height near an upstream cyclone, or 320-K potential vorticity near the tropopause, two or three days prior to block onset is associated with more than a 10% change in block area on the analyzed onset day in 17 of the 20 onset cases. These results imply that improvement in the forecasts of upstream cyclone location and intensity may help improve block onset forecasts

Lessons from history of socioeconomic improvements: a new approach to treating multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis

Summary This study investigated the trends in tuberculosis mortality through time in Switzerland. Information on the decline in mortality before chemotherapies were introduced may be useful in developing countries where drug-resistant tuberculosis is now becoming a major problem. Swiss data were collected from historical records and comparative data were obtained from the literature for England and Wales, New York, Japan, Brazil and Sierra Leone. Logistic curves were fitted to examine the rate of decline before introduction of pharmacotherapies and these show that the decline would have continued without the introduction of chemical therapies, including antibiotics. In Switzerland, England and Wales and New York, the decline had occurred long before the introduction of specific anti-tuberculosis agents. In Brazil and Japan, chemical therapy was co-incident with the decline in tuberculosis mortality rates. Overall, it is suggested that the effective control of tuberculosis can be achieved through a combination of chemical interventions, conservative therapy (rest, good nutrition, ventilation, etc.) as well as public health interventions addressing hygiene, nutrition, reducing exposure to infections and educating the population about tuberculosis

An attempt to observe economy globalization: the cross correlation distance evolution of the top 19 GDP's

Economy correlations between the 19 richest countries are investigated through their Gross Domestic Product increments. A distance is defined between increment correlation matrix elements and their evolution studied as a function of time and time window size. Unidirectional and Bidirectional Minimal Length Paths are generated and analyzed for different time windows. A sort of critical correlation time window is found indicating a transition for best observations. The mean length path decreases with time, indicating stronger correlations. A new method for estimating a realistic minimal time window to observe correlations and deduce macroeconomy conclusions from such features is thus suggested.Comment: to be published in the Dyses05 proceedings, in Int. J. Mod Phys C 15 pages, 5 figures, 1 tabl