PSO based Neural Networks vs. Traditional Statistical Models for Seasonal Time Series Forecasting

Seasonality is a distinctive characteristic which is often observed in many practical time series. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are a class of promising models for efficiently recognizing and forecasting seasonal patterns. In this paper, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) approach is used to enhance the forecasting strengths of feedforward ANN (FANN) as well as Elman ANN (EANN) models for seasonal data. Three widely popular versions of the basic PSO algorithm, viz. Trelea-I, Trelea-II and Clerc-Type1 are considered here. The empirical analysis is conducted on three real-world seasonal time series. Results clearly show that each version of the PSO algorithm achieves notably better forecasting accuracies than the standard Backpropagation (BP) training method for both FANN and EANN models. The neural network forecasting results are also compared with those from the three traditional statistical models, viz. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Holt-Winters (HW) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The comparison demonstrates that both PSO and BP based neural networks outperform SARIMA, HW and SVM models for all three time series datasets. The forecasting performances of ANNs are further improved through combining the outputs from the three PSO based models.Comment: 4 figures, 4 tables, 31 references, conference proceeding

Simulating the Effect of Pay Table Standard Deviation on Pulls Per Losing Player at the Single-visit Level

While holding par constant, changes in the standard deviation of the pay table produced an inverse effect on pulls per losing player (PPLP), across six different virtual slot machines. This result establishes the standard deviation of a game as a crucial determinant of a slot player\u27s experience. Three different single-trip scenarios were examined via computer simulation, with 50,000 players engaging each game. For example, virtual players began with 100 units, terminating play at bankruptcy or 200 units. As players focus on the outcome of single visits, understanding the determinants of PPLP (or time on device) will help management engineer desirable customer experiences at the trip level. In part, this can be achieved by altering the product mix to better match the expectations of the clientele. Given the remarkable bankruptcy rate of the trip simulations, proxies for value such as PPLP serve as crucial evaluation standards in the satisfaction process

Association of maternal plasma or serum zinc concentration with the birth weight of the child

Background: Zinc is a divalent cation first isolated in 1509 and since then its importance has been increasingly recognised in human health and nutrition. Present study has been undertaken to confirm the association between maternal plasma or serum zinc concentration and birth weight.Methods: Present study was cross-sectional study conducted in tertiary care hospital. Newborns with a birth weight of < 2.5kg and their mothers labelled as study group while newborns with a birth weight of > 2.5kg and their mothers were considered as control group. The analysis for the serum concentration of zinc was done using the Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometric method (AAS), this method analytically the most reliable for routine assessment of serum zinc levels. The results deduced from the analysis were accordingly grouped to the study group / control group. We had a sub-group analysis based on the gestational age, as Preterm and Term.Results: Maternal serum levels of zinc 67.04 μg /dl±16.66, in the study group, was less as compared to the maternal serum levels of zinc in the control group with a mean level of 75.39 μg/dl±17.89. The results show a significant association between zinc levels and birth weight. Mean Maternal serum levels of zinc 67.04 μg /dl±16.66, in the study group, was less as compared to the maternal serum levels of zinc in the control group with a mean level of 75.39 μg/dl±17.89. The results show a significant association between zinc levels and birth weight.Conclusions: Present study showed a positive correlation of maternal zinc levels with birth weight and prematurity. Hence, we recommend routine zinc supplementation could be included with other nutritional supplements during pregnancy

Prevalence of polycystic ovarian syndrome among adolescent girls: a prospective study

Background: PCOS is a complex   endocrine   disorder which is most common in women of reproductive age. PCOS may first present in adolescence, but the incidence of PCOS in adolescence is not known, as diagnostic criteria for PCOS in the adolescent age-group is still not defined, PCOS symptoms tend to overlap with normal pubertal changes making the diagnosis even more challenging. The objective is to study prevalence and symptomatology of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) in adolescent girls.Methods: Prospective study between November 2017 and March 2018. 117 adolescent girls aged 15 to19 years attending OPD with oligomenorrhea and/or hirsutism were advised for biochemical, hormonal, and ultrasonographic evaluation for diagnosis of PCOS on the basis of Rotterdam’s criteria at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Government Maternity Hospital, Osmania Medical College, Hyderabad.Results: Prevalence of PCOS in the study was 11.96% in the study group.Conclusions: PCOS is increasingly encountered during adolescence, although the overall prevalence is low and evaluation of PCOS in adolescents is challenging. At this age, life style modification is imperative to prevent long-term metabolic and reproductive complications

SYNTHESIS AND ANTICONVULSANT ACTIVITY (CHEMO SHOCK) OF N-1(SUBSTITUTED-N-4[(4-OXO-3-PHENYL-3, 4-DIHYDRO-QUINAZOLINE-2-YLMETHYL) SEMICARBAZONES

Objective: This work is designed at finding new structure leads with potential anticonvulsant activities of 4(3H)-quinazolinone pharmacophore scaffold.Methods: A new series of 4(3H)-quinazolinone pharmacophore was designed with substituted moieties possesses different electronic environment in the hope of developing potent and safe new effective compounds. In such fashion, in this paper, we report the synthesis and anticonvulsant activity (Chemo shock) of N-1(substituted-N-4[(4-oxo-3-phenyl-3, 4-dihydro-quinazoline-2-ylmethyl) semicarbazones 3A-d (1-7), 3B-d (1-7), 3C-d (1-7), their chemical structure were characterized using IR,  H-H NMR, and elemental analysis techniques. Their anticonvulsant activity was evaluated using chemicals strychnine, thiosemicarbazide and 4-aminopyridine induced seizure models at a dose of 30, 100, 300 mg/kg unto 2 hrs tests in mice. The rotarod assay was performed in mice to evaluate the neurotoxicity of the compounds. 1Results: Compounds 3C (d-4), 3B (d-4), and 3A (d-4) were observed to be most feasible to act against glutamate receptor for anticonvulsant activity.Conclusions: The results obtained revealed that numbers of novel quinazolinone semicarbazone derivatives are effective in chemical to induce (chemo shock) model and showing good anticonvulsant activity.Keywords: Quinazolinone, Semicarbazones, Strychnine, Thiosemicarbazide, 4-aminopyridine, Anticonvulsant activity, Chemo shock

Bacterial flora associated with the selected life stages and organs of farmed giant freshwater prawn Macrobrachium rosenbergii (de Man)

Bacteria associated with different life stages of giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii de Man) were analyzed. The gill, hepatopancreas, haemolymph of brood and juveniles as well as the egg, larvae and larval rearing water were sampled to understand the quantity and the quality of bacteria associated with the animals.A total number of 93 representative isolates were identified. The identified bacterial isolates could be distributed in to 14 genera. A mean bacterial total plate count (TPC) of 4.5x105 colony forming units (cfu) g-1 in eggs, 6.0x106 cfu g-1 in larvae and 4.6x105 cfu ml-1 in water were observed. Among all the organs highest TPC of 3.5x107 cfu g-1 were observed in juvenile’s gills. The brood haemolymph was found to be devoid of any bacteria. Identification of isolates representing different colony morphotype indicated that 89.77% of the bacterial population was gram negative dominated by Aeromonas hydrophilla (16.74%), Enterobacter aerogenes (12.09%) and Citrobacter frundii (10.16%). Among Gram-positive bacteria Bacillus, Streptococcus and Micrococcus were identified. Study of quantitative and qualitative aspects of bacterial prevalence with the different life stages of M. rosenbergii would be helpful in identification of disease causing bacteria and therefore in better management of M.rosenbergii culture