Readdressing the trade effect of the Euro: Allowing for currency misalignment

We know that euro-area member countries have absorbed asymmetric shocks in ways that are inconsistent with a common nominal anchor. Based on a reformulation of the gravity model that allows for such bilateral misalignment, we disentangle the conventional trade cost channel and trade effects deriving from 'implicit currency misalignment'. Econometric estimation reveals that the currency misalignment channel exerts a significant trade effect on bilateral exports. We retrieve country specific estimates of the euro effect on trade based on misalignment. This reveals asymmetric trade effects and heterogeneous outlooks across countries for the costs and benefits from adopting the euro. --Euro,gravity model,exchange rates,purchasing power parity,trade imbalances

Readdressing the trade effect of the Euro : allowing for currency misalignment

We know that euro-area member countries have absorbed asymmetric shocks in ways that are inconsistent with a common nominal anchor. Based on a reformulation of the gravity model that allows for such bilateral misalignment, we disentangle the conventional trade cost channel and trade effects deriving from “implicit currency misalignment”. Econometric estimation reveals that the currency misalignment channel exerts a significant trade effect on bilateral exports. We retrieve country specific estimates of the euro effect on trade based on misalignment. This reveals asymmetric trade effects and heterogeneous outlooks across countries for the costs and benefits from adopting the euro

Simulating Changes in Regional Air Pollution over the Eastern United States Due to Changes in Global and Regional Climate and Emissions

[1] To simulate ozone (O3) air quality in future decades over the eastern United States, a modeling system consisting of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model, the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale regional climate model (MM5), and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model has been applied. Estimates of future emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors are based on the A2 scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), one of the scenarios with the highest growth of CO2 among all IPCC scenarios. Simulation results for five summers in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s indicate that summertime average daily maximum 8-hour O3 concentrations increase by 2.7, 4.2, and 5.0 ppb, respectively, as a result of regional climate change alone with respect to five summers in the 1990s. Through additional sensitivity simulations for the five summers in the 2050s the relative impact of changes in regional climate, anthropogenic emissions within the modeling domain, and changed boundary conditions approximating possible changes of global atmospheric composition was investigated. Changed boundary conditions are found to be the largest contributor to changes in predicted summertime average daily maximum 8-hour O3 concentrations (5.0 ppb), followed by the effects of regional climate change (4.2 ppb) and the effects of increased anthropogenic emissions (1.3 ppb). However, when changes in the fourth highest summertime 8-hour O3 concentration are considered, changes in regional climate are the most important contributor to simulated concentration changes (7.6 ppb), followed by the effect of increased anthropogenic emissions (3.9 ppb) and increased boundary conditions (2.8 ppb). Thus, while previous studies have pointed out the potentially important contribution of growing global emissions and intercontinental transport to O3 air quality in the United States for future decades, the results presented here imply that it may be equally important to consider the effects of a changing climate when planning for the future attainment of regional-scale air quality standards such as the U.S. national ambient air quality standard that is based on the fourth highest annual daily maximum 8-hour O3 concentration

Myocardial Perfusion Reserve but not fibrosis predicts outcomes in initially asymptomatic patients with moderate to severe aortic stenosis : the PRognostic Importance of MIcrovascular Dysfunction in AS study- PRIMID AS

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Advancing uracil-excision based cloning towards an ideal technique for cloning PCR fragments

The largely unused uracil-excision molecular cloning technique has excellent features in most aspects compared to other modern cloning techniques. Its application has, however, been hampered by incompatibility with proof-reading DNA polymerases. We have advanced the technique by identifying PfuCx as a compatible proof-reading DNA polymerase and by developing an improved vector design strategy. The original features of the technique, namely simplicity, speed, high efficiency and low cost are thus combined with high fidelity as well as a transparent, simple and flexible vector design. A comprehensive set of vectors has been constructed covering a wide range of different applications and their functionality has been confirmed

Herpes simplex virus type 2 antibody detection performance in Kisumu, Kenya, using the Herpeselect ELISA, Kalon ELISA, Western blot and inhibition testing

In certain parts of Africa, type-specific HSV type-2 ELISAs may have limited specificity. To date, no study has been conducted to validate HerpeSelect and Kalon type-specific HSV-2 ELISAs using both the Western blot (WB) and Recombinant gG ELISA inhibition testing as reference standards

Assessment of the MACC reanalysis and its influence as chemical boundary conditions for regional air quality modeling in AQMEII-2

The Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) has now reached its second phase which is dedicated to the evaluation of online coupled chemistry-meteorology models. Sixteen modeling groups from Europe and five from North America have run regional air quality models to simulate the year 2010 over one European and one North American domain. The MACC re-analysis has been used as chemical initial (IC) and boundary conditions (BC) by all participating regional models in AQMEII-2. The aim of the present work is to evaluate the MACC re-analysis along with the participating regional models against a set of ground-based measurements (O3, CO, NO, NO2, SO2, SO42−) and vertical profiles (O3 and CO). Results indicate different degrees of agreement between the measurements and the MACC re-analysis, with an overall better performance over the North American domain. The influence of BC on regional air quality simulations is analyzed in a qualitative way by contrasting model performance for the MACC re-analysis with that for the regional models. This approach complements more quantitative approaches documented in the literature that often have involved sensitivity simulations but typically were limited to only one or only a few regional scale models. Results suggest an important influence of the BC on ozone for which the underestimation in winter in the MACC re-analysis is mimicked by the regional models. For CO, it is found that background concentrations near the domain boundaries are rather close to observations while those over the interior of the two continents are underpredicted by both MACC and the regional models over Europe but only by MACC over North America. This indicates that emission differences between the MACC re-analysis and the regional models can have a profound impact on model performance and points to the need for harmonization of inputs in future linked global/regional modeling studies

Children's Divergent Thinking Improves When They Understand False Beliefs

This research utilized longitudinal and cross sectional methods to investigate the relation between the development of a representational theory of mind and children's growing ability to search their own minds for appropriate problem solutions. In the first experiment 59 pre-school children were given three false-belief tasks and a divergent thinking task. Those children who passed false-belief tasks produced significantly more items, as well as more original items, in response to divergent thinking questions than those children who failed. This significant association persisted even when chronological age, verbal and nonverbal general ability were partialed out. In a second study 20 children who failed the false-belief tasks in the first experiment were re-tested three months later. Again, those who now passed the false-belief tasks were significantly better at the divergent thinking task than those who continued to fail. The associations between measures of divergent thinking and understanding false-beliefs remained significant when controlling for the covariates. Earlier divergent thinking scores did not predict false-belief understanding three months later. Instead, children who passed false-belief tasks on the second measure improved significantly in relation to their own earlier performance and improved significantly more than children who continued to fail. False-belief task performance was significantly correlated to the amount of intra-individual improvement in divergent thinking even when age, verbal and nonverbal skills were partialed out. These findings suggest that developments in common underlying skills are responsible for the improvement in understanding other minds and searching one's own. Changes in representational and executive skills are discussed as potential causes for the improvement