THE FEDERAL CROP INSURANCE PROGRAM - AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN ACREAGE RESPONSE AND PARTICIPATION

The extent to which crop insurance programs have resulted in additional land being brought into production has been a topic of considerable debate. We extend a multi-equation structural model of crop acreage response, insurance participation, CRP enrollment, and input usage developed in Goodwin and Vandeveer (2000) to wheat and barley production in the "Northern Great Plains" region. We also update earlier results for corn and soybean production in the "Heartland" region. Our results confirm earlier findings that increased participation in insurance programs provoke a statistically significant acreage response. This response is, however, relatively modest. We find that cross-the-board decreases of 50% in insurance premiums significantly increase participation but result in acreage increases of about 0.5% for barley and 3.7% for wheat. In the modern period (1997-1998),expanded insurance participation brought about by premium rate reductions has almost no effect on acreage. Our results for the recent period show a shifting in coverage toward revenue insurance.Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Moving-base visual simulation study of decoupled controls during approach and landing of a STOL transport aircraft

The simulation employed all six rigid-body degrees of freedom and incorporated aerodynamic characteristics based on wind-tunnel data. The flight instrumentation included a localizer and a flight director which was used to capture and to maintain a two-segment glide slope. A closed-circuit television display of a STOLport provided visual cues during simulations of the approach and landing. The decoupled longitudinal controls used constant prefilter and feedback gains to provide steady-state decoupling of flight-path angle, pitch angle, and forward velocity. The pilots were enthusiastic about the decoupled longitudinal controls and believed that the simulator motion was an aid in evaluating the decoupled controls, although a minimum turbulence level with root-mean-square gust intensity of 0.3 m/sec (1 ft/sec) was required to mask undesirable characteristics of the moving-base simulator

Fixed-base simulation study of decoupled controls during approach and landing of a STOL transport airplane

A fixed-base visual simulation study has been conducted to evaluate the use of decoupled controls as a means for reducing pilot workload during approach and landing of an externally blown jet-flap short take-off and landing (STOL) transport. All six rigid-body degrees of freedom were employed with the aerodynamic characteristics based on wind-tunnel data. The primary piloting task was to use a flight director to capture and maintain a two-segment glide slope, with a closed-circuit television display of a STOL airport used during simulations of the flare and landing. The decoupled longitudinal controls used constant prefilter and feedback gains to provide steady-state decoupling of flight-path angle, pitch angle, and forward velocity. The pilots were enthusiastic about the decoupled longitudinal controls but believed the decoupled concept offered no significant advantage over conventional controls in the lateral mode

Simulator study of stall/post-stall characteristics of a fighter airplane with relaxed longitudinal static stability

A real-time piloted simulation was conducted to evaluate the high-angle-of-attack characteristics of a fighter configuration based on wind-tunnel testing of the F-16, with particular emphasis on the effects of various levels of relaxed longitudinal static stability. The aerodynamic data used in the simulation was conducted on the Langley differential maneuvering simulator, and the evaluation involved representative low-speed combat maneuvering. Results of the investigation show that the airplane with the basic control system was resistant to the classical yaw departure; however, it was susceptible to pitch departures induced by inertia coupling during rapid, large-amplitude rolls at low airspeed. The airplane also exhibited a deep-stall trim which could be flown into and from which it was difficult to recover. Control-system modifications were developed which greatly decreased the airplane susceptibility to the inertia-coupling departure and which provided a reliable means for recovering from the deep stall

SWIRP (Submm-Wave and Long Wave InfraRed Polarimeter); Development and Characterization of a Sub-Mm Polarimeter for Ice Cloud Investigations

A major source of uncertainty in climate models is the presence, shape and distribution of ice particles in the uppermost layers of the clouds. The effects of this component are poorly constrained, turning ice particles into an almost-free variable in many climate models.NASA-GSFC is developing a new instrument aimed at measuring the size and shape of ice particles. The instrument consists of two sub-mm polarimeters (at 220 and 670 GHz) coupled with a long-wave infrared polarimeter at 10 micron. Each polarimeter has identical V-pol and H-pol channels; the axes of polarization are defined geometrically by the orientation of the waveguide elements, and the purity has been measured in the lab. The instrument is configured as a conical scanner, suitable for deployment as a payload on a small satellite or on a high-altitude sub-orbital platform. From a 400 km orbit, the instrument has a 3dB spatial resolution of 20 (10) km at 220 (670) GHz and a swath of 600 km over 180 degrees of view.The BAPTA (Bearing And Power Transfer Assembly) carries heritage from the SSMIS design, now in its 22nd year of on-orbit operation, but with a much reduced SWaP (Size Weight and Power) footprint, suitable for a small satellite.The main components of the instrument have been fabricated and are undergoing final testing prior to their integration as a single unit. The sub-mm channels have dedicated secondary reflectors which illuminate a shared primary reflector. The receiving units are placed behind the focal point of the optical arrangement, so that all beams equally illuminate the primary reflector and are almost co-located on the ground (within a single 220 GHz footprint). Primary and secondary beam patterns have been measured and verified to match the as-designed expectations. A Zytex (TM) window is deployed to protect the secondary reflectors and the feed horns from debris and other contaminants, and to reduce the heat load from the active (hot) IR calibration unit. The insertion loss of Zytex has been measured and is accounted in the calibration equation of the sub-mm channels.The radiometric performance of the sub-mm receivers has been characterized in the lab and under operational conditions of temperature and pressure.This paper discusses the design constraints on the sub-mm components, details of the scientific goals and their flowdown, and describes the characterization of the polarimeters. Options to optimize the layout and distribution of the masses within the assembly, with the goal of making the instrument even more compact and fully-compatible with cubesat-class satellites will be presented

Life History of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid, \u3cem\u3eAdelges tsugae\u3c/em\u3e Annand, on Eastern Hemlock, \u3cem\u3eTsuga canadensis\u3c/em\u3e (L.) Carriere, in the Southern Appalachians and Assessment of Egg Releases of \u3cem\u3eSasajiscymnus tsugae\u3c/em\u3e (Sasaji and McClure) for Its Management

Studies were conducted in 2005 and 2006 at Baxter Orchard, Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee to optimize survival of Sasajiscymnus tsugae (St) (Sasaji and McClure) released as eggs on eastern hemlock, Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carriere, for biological control of Adelges tsugae (HWA) Annand. Studies investigated annual abundance and seasonality of HWA lifestages, weekly field and laboratory survival of St, and survival of St egg cohorts of various ages and densities. HWA was determined to be bivoltine on eastern hemlock in Tennessee with an aestivation period between July and October. Lifestages preferred as food by St were present from February through June with peak abundance ca. late March. Weekly survival of St placed in the field and laboratory as eggs was investigated. Less than 10% of St eggs placed in the field between 8 February to 22 March survived because of freezing field temperatures. Survival rose to 30-40% on 30 March and persisted at that level until 7 June, when survival decreased below 10% due to scarcity of food. Studies were conducted to investigate the effect of St egg density on survival of St. Four densities of St eggs (50, 100, 150, and 200 eggs/container) were placed in the field and laboratory. In the laboratory, survival was higher for lower densities of St eggs, implying cannibalism increases with density. Three egg age classes (0-2, 3-5, and 6-8 days old) were used to test the effect of St egg age on survival. St in field cages showed poor survival, likely due to freezing temperatures. However, the oldest (6-8 day) age class showed significantly greater survival in the field than the younger age classes. The two oldest age classes showed significantly greater survival than the youngest (0-2 day) age class in the laboratory. Results of multiple studies over two years support the release of St eggs to enhance biological control efforts against HWA. Studies showed St established as eggs in the field could successfully develop into adults. Survival of St from egg releases is highest when St eggs are released between late March and May, in low densities, and in older age classes

Isoscalar Giant Dipole Resonance and Nuclear Matter Incompressibility Coefficient

We present results of microscopic calculations of the strength function, S(E), and alpha-particle excitation cross sections sigma(E) for the isoscalar giant dipole resonance (ISGDR). An accurate and a general method to eliminate the contributions of spurious state mixing is presented and used in the calculations. Our results provide a resolution to the long standing problem that the nuclear matter incompressibility coefficient, K, deduced from sigma(E) data for the ISGDR is significantly smaller than that deduced from data for the isoscalar giant monopole resonance (ISGMR).Comment: 4 pages using revtex 3.0, 3 postscript figures created by Mathematica 4.

Evidence-based decision support for pediatric rheumatology reduces diagnostic errors.

BACKGROUND: The number of trained specialists world-wide is insufficient to serve all children with pediatric rheumatologic disorders, even in the countries with robust medical resources. We evaluated the potential of diagnostic decision support software (DDSS) to alleviate this shortage by assessing the ability of such software to improve the diagnostic accuracy of non-specialists. METHODS: Using vignettes of actual clinical cases, clinician testers generated a differential diagnosis before and after using diagnostic decision support software. The evaluation used the SimulConsult® DDSS tool, based on Bayesian pattern matching with temporal onset of each finding in each disease. The tool covered 5405 diseases (averaging 22 findings per disease). Rheumatology content in the database was developed using both primary references and textbooks. The frequency, timing, age of onset and age of disappearance of findings, as well as their incidence, treatability, and heritability were taken into account in order to guide diagnostic decision making. These capabilities allowed key information such as pertinent negatives and evolution over time to be used in the computations. Efficacy was measured by comparing whether the correct condition was included in the differential diagnosis generated by clinicians before using the software ( unaided ), versus after use of the DDSS ( aided ). RESULTS: The 26 clinicians demonstrated a significant reduction in diagnostic errors following introduction of the software, from 28% errors while unaided to 15% using decision support (p \u3c 0.0001). Improvement was greatest for emergency medicine physicians (p = 0.013) and clinicians in practice for less than 10 years (p = 0.012). This error reduction occurred despite the fact that testers employed an open book approach to generate their initial lists of potential diagnoses, spending an average of 8.6 min using printed and electronic sources of medical information before using the diagnostic software. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that decision support can reduce diagnostic errors and improve use of relevant information by generalists. Such assistance could potentially help relieve the shortage of experts in pediatric rheumatology and similarly underserved specialties by improving generalists\u27 ability to evaluate and diagnose patients presenting with musculoskeletal complaints. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT02205086

Accretion of Planetary Material onto Host Stars

Accretion of planetary material onto host stars may occur throughout a star's life. Especially prone to accretion, extrasolar planets in short-period orbits, while relatively rare, constitute a significant fraction of the known population, and these planets are subject to dynamical and atmospheric influences that can drive significant mass loss. Theoretical models frame expectations regarding the rates and extent of this planetary accretion. For instance, tidal interactions between planets and stars may drive complete orbital decay during the main sequence. Many planets that survive their stars' main sequence lifetime will still be engulfed when the host stars become red giant stars. There is some observational evidence supporting these predictions, such as a dearth of close-in planets around fast stellar rotators, which is consistent with tidal spin-up and planet accretion. There remains no clear chemical evidence for pollution of the atmospheres of main sequence or red giant stars by planetary materials, but a wealth of evidence points to active accretion by white dwarfs. In this article, we review the current understanding of accretion of planetary material, from the pre- to the post-main sequence and beyond. The review begins with the astrophysical framework for that process and then considers accretion during various phases of a host star's life, during which the details of accretion vary, and the observational evidence for accretion during these phases.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures (with some redacted), invited revie

Envisioning sustainable tourism futures: An evaluation of the futures wheel method

Methods for researching the future have grown both in variety and rigour, offering new opportunities for understanding sustainable tourism. This paper discusses the value of futures research as a tool for envisioning and planning sustainable tourism futures but observes that there is greater potential for the use of futures methods in tourism. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the usefulness of a particular method known as the futures wheel as a sustainable planning tool for tourism decision makers and researchers. The futures wheel method is combined with a grounded theory approach to capture and distil the tacit knowledge of three 'expert' think tanks. The evaluation suggests that the futures wheel is a useful tool for researching sustainable tourism futures but that its potential may be enhanced if it can be combined with other futures research methods