Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Perioperative intravenous contrast administration and the incidence of acute kidney injury after major gastrointestinal surgery: prospective, multicentre cohort study

Abstract Background This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score-matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score-matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery. Results A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score-matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498). Conclusion There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast-enhanced CT. </jats:sec

Impact of postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery on 1-year survival and renal outcomes: a national multicentre cohort study

Abstract Background The intermediate-term impact of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients after major gastrointestinal and liver surgery has not been well characterized. This study aimed to evaluate the 1-year mortality rate and renal outcomes associated with postoperative AKI in a national prospective cohort. Methods This prospective multicentre, observational cohort with 1-year postoperative follow-up included adults undergoing major gastrointestinal and liver surgery across the UK and Ireland between 23 September and 18 November 2015. AKI was defined according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria. The primary outcome was death at 1-year after surgery, and the secondary outcome was Major Adverse Kidney Events (MAKE-365). Cox proportionate and multilevel logistic regression were used to account for case mix. Results Of 5745 patients across 173 centres, 1-year follow-up data was completed for 3504 patients (62.2 per cent, 126 centres), with attrition largely explained by centre non-participation (63.1 per cent). Some 13.6 per cent (475 of 3504) patients developed AKI by 7 days after surgery (stage 1: 9.2 per cent; stage 2/3: 4.3 per cent). At 1 year, 10.8 per cent (378 patients) experienced a MAKE-365 endpoint (303 patients had died, 61 had renal replacement therapy and 78 had renal dysfunction). Patients who experienced AKI by 7 days after surgery had a higher hazard of death at 1 year for KDIGO stage 1 (hazard ratio 1.50 (95 per cent c.i. 1.08 to 2.08), P = 0.016) and KDIGO stage 2/3 (hazard ratio 2.96 (95 per cent c.i. 2.02 to 4.33), P &amp;lt; 0.001). Both KDIGO stage 1 (odds ratio 2.09 (95 per cent c.i. 1.50 to 2.92), P &amp;lt; 0.001) and stage 2/3 (odds ratio 9.26 (95 per cent c.i. 6.31 to 13.59), P &amp;lt; 0.001) AKI were independently associated with MAKE-365. Conclusion AKI events within 7 days after gastrointestinal or liver surgery are associated with significantly worse survival and renal outcomes at 1 year. </jats:sec