Cigarette Tax Revenues and Tobacco Control in Japan

The hypotheses of non-addiction, myopia and rational addiction are tested using annual, quarterly and monthly data. Changes in the prices of Japanese cigarettes can be viewed as exogenous from the point of view of consumer behavior, because the Japanese government controls cigarette prices. The empirical results of this paper support the addiction hypothesis. The short-run and long-run price elasticities range from -0.338 to -0.421, and from -0.679 to -0.686, respectively; thus, increases in tax revenues in the long-run are likely to be smaller than those in the short-run. As a result, tax increases would be an effective means of curbing smoking and reducing its social cost. Furthermore, the debt compensation programs for the Japan Railway and the National Forestry will not go according to plan, unless revenues are increased in the future.smoking, rational addiction, tax revenues

Responses of Consumers to the Mandatory Disclosure of Information: Evidence from Natural Experiments in Japanese Inter-brand Cigarette Demands

I estimated inter-brand cigarette demands with nicotine, tar content and policy event information in Japan during 1950-84. The demand for all brands increased but the demand for plain (non-filter) brands decreased due to the dissemination ofgA Note about Health Damage from Smoking h in 1964. The demand for all brands increased but the demand for high-nicotine brands decreased due to the disclosure of nicotine and tar content in 1967 and the labeling warnings in 1972, however consumers had still preferred high-nicotine brands after 1972. Contrastively, the demand for high-tar brands increased in 1967 but decreased in 1972, and consumers had switched to prefer low-tar brands after 1972. Disclosure did not reduce the intake of nicotine but reduced the intake of tar, accordingly disclosure may benefit consumers by reducing the health risk as tar causes cancers. In line with changes in inter-brand demands, the monopolistic firm discontinued old products with poorer quality (plain, high-tar) but provided new better ones (filter-tipped, low-tar).disclosure, nicotine, tar, cigarette, inter-brand, panel estimation, difference in difference

Response of Consumers to the Mandatory Disclosure of Information : Evidence from Natural Experiments in Japanese Inter-brand Cigarette Demands

†I thank Kazuo Ogawa for advice and guidance while writing this paper; Charles Yuj

The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data

In this paper, we conduct a dynamic panel analysis of the determinants of the household saving rate in China using a life cycle model and panel data on Chinese provinces for the 1995-2004 period from China's household survey. We find that China's household saving rate has been high and rising and that the main determinants of variations over time and over space therein are the lagged saving rate, the income growth rate, and (in some cases) the real interest rate and the inflation rate. However, we find that the variables relating to the age structure of the population usually do not have a significant impact on the household saving rate. These results provide mixed support for the life cycle hypothesis, are consistent with the existence of inertia or persistence, and imply that China's household saving rate will remain high for some time to come.

The determinants of household saving in China: a dynamic panel analysis of provincial data

In this paper, we conduct a dynamic panel analysis of the determinants of the household saving rate in China using a life cycle model and panel data on Chinese provinces for the 1995-2004 period from China's household survey. We find that China's household saving rate has been high and rising and that the main determinants of variations over time and over space therein are the lagged saving rate, the income growth rate, and (in some cases) the real interest rate and the inflation rate. However, we find that the variables relating to the age structure of the population usually do not have a significant impact on the household saving rate. These results provide mixed support for the life cycle hypothesis as well as the permanent income hypothesis, are consistent with the existence of inertia or persistence, and imply that China's household saving rate will remain high for some time to come.Saving and investment - China

The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data

In this paper, we conduct a dynamic panel analysis of the determinants of the household saving rate in China using a life cycle model and panel data on Chinese provinces for the 1995-2004 period from China?s household survey. We find that China?s household saving rate has been high and rising and that the main determinants of variations over time and over space therein are the lagged saving rate, the income growth rate, (in many cases) the real interest rate, and (in some cases) the inflation rate. However, we find that the variables relating to the age structure of the population have the expected impact on the household saving rate in only one of the four samples. These results provide mixed support for the life cycle hypothesis as well as the permanent income hypothesis, are consistent with the existence of inertia or persistence, and imply that China?s household saving rate will remain high for some time to come.

Rational Addiction with Optimal Inventories: Theory and Evidence from Cigarette Purchases in Japan

A model of rational addiction (RA) with optimal inventories is developed and empirically tested using data on purchases in Japan. If a consumer has information regarding a future price increase, then she may hoard addictive goods; in this case, the optimal inventory period increases with the price hike but decreases with the inventory cost. Owing to the creation of such inventories by consumers, the absolute value of the price elasticity of demand is smaller in the case of a price increase than in that of a price decrease, and this difference is especially salient in the short-run. The evidence provided by daily cigarette purchases is consistent with this asymmetric price effect. Monthly cigarette purchase data do not support the RA hypothesis when inventory is ignored, as inventory becomes an omitted variable that correlates with price; however, this hypothesis does find support if inventory is identified in the demand equation.

Rational Addiction with Optimal Inventories : Theory and Evidence from Cigarette Purchases in Japan

* Revised： Rational Addiction with an Optimal Inventory:Theory and Evidence from Japanese Daily and Monthly Purchases [04-01, 2004