The Free Trade Agreement Morocco-EU: a simulation of the impact on EU exports.

We analyse the effect due of the next FTA between Morocco and the EU on bilateral Moroccan imports. As our main contribution to the existing literature, we include in our gravity equation tariff data at the industry level. This allows to better estimate trade determinants and also makes possible to perform simulations of the tariff dismantling taking into account its different path for each industry and year. A complete tariff dismantling will double the average yearly trade growth observed in the years just before the transition period to the FTA begun. The average effect follows the tariff reduction schedule being greater at the beginning and at the end of the transition period. The effect is positive for all EU Member States but exports growth to Morocco is greater for Portugal, Greece, Slovakia, Lithuania and Spain and lower for Germany, Denmark, Finland, France and Sweden. By industries, the faster growth are predicted for Leather and leather products, Wood and wood products, Textiles and textile products, Rubber and plastic products and Pulp, paper an paper products and publishing and printing. Finally, we also find a positive effect of Moroccan immigration in the EU on bilateral trade.liberalisation; EU; Morocco; Free Trade Area; Tariff; Immigration; Liberalisation; gravity equation.

Do Endowments Matter for Vertical Intra-Industry Trade with Emergent Countries? Empirical Evidence for Spain.

In this paper, we study the nature of Spanish intra-industry trade and find that intra-industry trade with CEEC, Asian and Mediterranean countries has increased considerably since the middle of the Nineties. The second aim of the paper is to study if the comparative advantage argument also explains the vertical intra-industry trade between countries with different income levels. To this end we build physical, technological and human capital stocks for a large sample of countries. Results obtained with the panel techniques support the idea of a neo Ricardian explanation of VIIT rather than the neo-Hecksher-Ohlin explanation for intra-industry trade with emergent countries. Furthermore, our results suggest that the variables considered, mostly country-specific better explain vertical intra-industry trade than horizontal intra-industry trade. Results obtained with the Heckman method support the idea that IIT is more likely to occur with emergent countries with higher i ncome per capita and with OECD countries that have a more similar level of income to that of Spain. Differences in endowments play an important role to determine the volume of IIT rather than the probability of IIT to occur. An aditional contribution of this paper is to demonstrate that panel approach allows for more robust conclusions than OLS estimations when explaining intra-industry trade. The Heckman procedure to account for the zero flows also represents a major improvement respect to the standard approach.Intra-industry trade; Comparative Advantage, Spain, Vertical Differentiation, Panel data, Truncated models.

Offshoring, job satisfaction and job insecurity

This paper investigates the effects of offshoring on individual job satisfaction and perceived risk of job loss. The authors merge microdata from the German Socio-economic Panel dataset (SOEP) with indicators of insertion in global value chains at the industry level for the period 2000–2013. They test two hypotheses. First, the authors investigate whether workers in industries with higher offshoring intensity report lower job satisfaction and/or are more prone to be unsecure at their jobs. Second, they test whether these effects differ among four categories of collars. Their findings indicate that offshoring is associated with lower job satisfaction. The results are also indicative of some heterogeneity in the offshoring effect, with high skilled white-collar workers being mostly unaffected by offshoring and low skilled blue-collar workers showing the largest negative effects. Discriminating between manufacturing and services activities, the authors find that the extent of heterogeneity and the offshoring effect is relatively larger in manufacturing industries. They also find that the effect of offshoring intensity upon job satisfaction is more negative and significant in periods of economic decline. Finally, the results show that offshoring is not significantly related with job insecurity, a result that applies to all workers’ categories. Still, in a period of economic decline job insecurity may increase when the offshoring intensity rises.R&D Program in Social Sciences and Humanities by the Autonomous Community of Madrid, OPINBI project H2019/HUM-5793Junta de AndaluciaMinisterio de Ciencia, Innovacion y universidades (Spain) PGC2018-093506-B-I0

Intra-industry trade with emergent countries: what can we learn from spanish data?

In this paper, we study the nature of Spanish intra-industry trade and find that intra-industry trade with CEEC, Asian and Mediterranean countries has increased considerably since the middle of the Nineties. The second aim of the paper is to study if the comparative advantage argument also explains the vertical intra-industry trade between different income countries. According to OLS estimations, technological differences increase DVIIT while physical capital differences lead to its decrease. The results obtained applying the Heckman method support the idea that differences in physical capital reduce the probability of IIT to occur but the level of vertical and horizontal IIT is more accurately explained by the proximity of partners, similarity in development level and size of market than by the differences in physical capital endowments. The variables considered, mostly country-specific, do have the same impact on vertical and horizontal IIT with emergent countries.Comparative advantage

The Free Trade Agreement Morocco-EU: A simulation of the impact on bilateral flows

We analyse the effect due of the next FTA between Morocco and the EU on bilateral Moroccan imports. As our main contribution to the existing literature, we include in our gravity equation tariff data at the industry level. This allows to better estimate trade determinants and also makes possible to perform simulations of the tariff dismantling taking into account its different path for each industry and year. A complete tariff dismantling will double the average yearly trade growth observed in the years just before the transition period to the FTA begun. The average effect follows the tariff reduction schedule being greater at the beginning and at the end of the transition period. The effect is positive for all EU Member States but exports growth to Morocco is greater for Portugal, Greece, Slovakia, Lithuania and Spain and lower for Germany, Denmark, Finland, France and Sweden. By industries, the faster growth are predicted for Leather and leather products, Wood and wood products, Textiles and textile products, Rubber and plastic products and Pulp, paper an paper products and publishing and printing. Finally, we also find a positive effect of Moroccan immigration in the EU on bilateral trade.Liberalisation; EU; Morocco; Free Trade Area; Tariff; Immigration; gravity equation

Trade types with developed and developing countries what can we learn from Spanish data?

In this paper, we investigate the nature of Spanish intra-industry trade and find that intraindustry trade with CEEC, Asian and Mediterranean countries has increased considerably since the middle of the Nineties. The second aim of the paper is to study if the comparative advantage argument also explains vertical intra-.industry trade between different income countries. According to OLS estimations, technological differences do increase DVIIT while physical capital differences decreases it. Results obtained applying Heckman method support the idea that differences in physical capital reduce the probability of IIT to occur but the level of vertical and horizontal IIT is better explained by the proximity of partners, the similarity in development level and size of market than by differences in physical capital endowments. The variables considered, mostly country-specific do have the same impact on vertical and horizontal IIT with emergent countries.

EMU impact of on third countries' exports: a gravity approach

In this article we explore the impact of the euro adoption and the effect of the volatility of the real exchange rate on trade both on intra EMU trade and on EMU trade with third countries. To this end, we use a large database covering 93% of world trade that includes 80 countries during the period 1980-2009. We estimate a gravity equation using one of the most complete specifications in the literature to isolate the euro effect from other factors affecting trade, as regional trade agreements or exchange rate volatility. Our results show that the elimination of the volatility boosted export per se especially before 1999 and therefore, the possibility to peg to the euro could boost trade of third countries and between these third countries.Financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation SEJ2007-62081, and the Regional Programs P07-SEJ-03261 and SEJ‐340 of the Regional Government of Andalusia

Exchange-rate policies and trade in the MENA countries

Compared to the new European members (NEM) and to the new candidate countries, the Middle-East and North African (MENA) countries are a very heterogeneous and fragmented EU frontier. As far as monetary issues are concerned, exchange rate regimes are very different and bilateral exchange rates quite volatile. Moreover, weak trade integration and generalized capital controls constitute major obstacles to economic and financial integration. Existing works yet suggest that anchoring to the euro would undoubtedly be the best exchange-rate strategy for most MENA countries. Monetary integration and trade integration are interdependent. This is especially the case when trade flows are sensitive to the volatility of exchange rates or to movements in relative prices. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the potential of monetary integration in the South Mediterranean area, in a context of trade liberalization and of a strong orientation of trade flows towards the EU. The empirical part of the paper would rely on a gravity equation of trade which would include exchange rates volatility and relative prices, in order to gauge the impact of de facto exchange-rate and monetary conditions on trade integration. The sample of countries is large (OECD, NEM, MENA and Asian countries) in order both to have robust estimates and to investigate whether the MENA countries exhibit a specific sensitivity of trade flows to exchange-rate volatility and exchange-rate misalignments. The impact of the competitiveness of third countries will also be investigated. This latter issue is especially important, though seldom assessed, when it comes to the potential trade-diverting effect of the latest EU enlargement on MENA trade wit the EU. The gravity setting also allows simulating the consequences for the trade of MENA countries of a deeper monetary integration, by comparing the impact on trade of a regional monetary integration and of a euro peg

The Free Trade Agreement Morocco-EU: a simulation of the impact on EU exports

We analyse the effect due of the next FTA between Morocco and the EU on bilateral Moroccan imports. As our main contribution to the existing literature, we include in our gravity equation tariff data at the industry level. This allows to better estimate trade determinants and also makes possible to perform simulations of the tariff dismantling taking into account its different path for each industry and year. A complete tariff dismantling will double the average yearly trade growth observed in the years just before the transition period to the FTA begun. The average effect follows the tariff reduction schedule being greater at the beginning and at the end of the transition period. The effect is positive for all EU Member States but exports growth to Morocco is greater for Portugal, Greece, Slovakia, Lithuania and Spain and lower for Germany, Denmark, Finland, France and Sweden. By industries, the faster growth are predicted for Leather and leather products, Wood and wood products, Textiles and textile products, Rubber and plastic products and Pulp, paper an paper products and publishing and printing. Finally, we also find a positive effect of Moroccan immigration in the EU on bilateral trade.This paper has benefited financial support from the Centro de Estudios Andaluces (Junta de Andalucia, Spain) within the context of th e Research Project ECO12-2004

Inmigración y libre-comercio: ¿qué opinan los españoles y por qué?

España ha sido uno de los destinos preferidos de los emigrantes y ha registrado un claro proceso de apertura comercial. Sin embargo, en el contexto actual de fuerte desempleo, las políticas de inmigración y libre-comercio son cuestionadas. Este trabajo examina la influencia de los factores económicos, culturales y sociales en las opiniones sobre estas facetas de la globalización. Se encuentra que los españoles tienen actitudes más favorables hacia el libre-comercio y más desfavorables hacia la inmigración que el promedio de la Unión Europea. Además, estas actitudes no son explicadas por los sentimientos nacionalistas o la religión. En línea con las predicciones del modelo Heckscher-Ohlin, los más educados apoyan el libre-comercio y también se oponen a la inmigración. Además, se encuentra evidencia a favor del modelo Ricardo-Viner: los empleados en sectores con ventaja comparativa apoyan el libre-comercio y aquellos empleados en los sectores agricultura y servicios se oponen a la inmigración.: preferencias, proteccionismo, libre comercio, globalización, inmigración, España