Exchangeable Fragmentation-Coalescence processes and their equilibrium measures

We define and study a family of Markov processes with state space the compact set of all partitions of N that we call exchangeable fragmentation-coalescence processes. They can be viewed as a combination of exchangeable fragmentation as defined by Bertoin and of homogenous coalescence as defined by Pitman and Schweinsberg or Mohle and Sagitov. We show that they admit a unique invariant probability measure and we study some properties of their paths and of their equilibrium measure

Critical branching Brownian motion with absorption: survival probability

We consider branching Brownian motion on the real line with absorption at zero, in which particles move according to independent Brownian motions with the critical drift of $-\sqrt{2}$. Kesten (1978) showed that almost surely this process eventually dies out. Here we obtain upper and lower bounds on the probability that the process survives until some large time $t$. These bounds improve upon results of Kesten (1978), and partially confirm nonrigorous predictions of Derrida and Simon (2007)

A small-time coupling between Λ\Lambda-coalescents and branching processes

We describe a new general connection between $\Lambda$-coalescents and genealogies of continuous-state branching processes. This connection is based on the construction of an explicit coupling using a particle representation inspired by the lookdown process of Donnelly and Kurtz. This coupling has the property that the coalescent comes down from infinity if and only if the branching process becomes extinct, thereby answering a question of Bertoin and Le Gall. The coupling also offers new perspective on the speed of coming down from infinity and allows us to relate power-law behavior for $N^{\Lambda}(t)$ to the classical upper and lower indices arising in the study of pathwise properties of L\'{e}vy processes.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AAP911 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The genealogy of branching Brownian motion with absorption

We consider a system of particles which perform branching Brownian motion with negative drift and are killed upon reaching zero, in the near-critical regime where the total population stays roughly constant with approximately N particles. We show that the characteristic time scale for the evolution of this population is of order $(\log N)^3$, in the sense that when time is measured in these units, the scaled number of particles converges to a variant of Neveu's continuous-state branching process. Furthermore, the genealogy of the particles is then governed by a coalescent process known as the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent. This validates the nonrigorous predictions by Brunet, Derrida, Muller and Munier for a closely related model.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOP728 the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Beta-coalescents and continuous stable random trees

Coalescents with multiple collisions, also known as $\Lambda$-coalescents, were introduced by Pitman and Sagitov in 1999. These processes describe the evolution of particles that undergo stochastic coagulation in such a way that several blocks can merge at the same time to form a single block. In the case that the measure $\Lambda$ is the $\operatorname {Beta}(2-\alpha,\alpha)$ distribution, they are also known to describe the genealogies of large populations where a single individual can produce a large number of offspring. Here, we use a recent result of Birkner et al. to prove that Beta-coalescents can be embedded in continuous stable random trees, about which much is known due to the recent progress of Duquesne and Le Gall. Our proof is based on a construction of the Donnelly--Kurtz lookdown process using continuous random trees, which is of independent interest. This produces a number of results concerning the small-time behavior of Beta-coalescents. Most notably, we recover an almost sure limit theorem of the present authors for the number of blocks at small times and give the multifractal spectrum corresponding to the emergence of blocks with atypical size. Also, we are able to find exact asymptotics for sampling formulae corresponding to the site frequency spectrum and the allele frequency spectrum associated with mutations in the context of population genetics.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009117906000001114 the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Small-time behavior of beta coalescents

For a finite measure $\varLambda$ on $[0,1]$, the $\varLambda$-coalescent is a coalescent process such that, whenever there are $b$ clusters, each $k$-tuple of clusters merges into one at rate $\int_0^1x^{k-2}(1-x)^{b-k}\varLambda(\mathrm{d}x)$. It has recently been shown that if $1<\alpha<2$, the $\varLambda$-coalescent in which $\varLambda$ is the $\operatorname {Beta}(2-\alpha,\alpha)$ distribution can be used to describe the genealogy of a continuous-state branching process (CSBP) with an $\alpha$-stable branching mechanism. Here we use facts about CSBPs to establish new results about the small-time asymptotics of beta coalescents. We prove an a.s. limit theorem for the number of blocks at small times, and we establish results about the sizes of the blocks. We also calculate the Hausdorff and packing dimensions of a metric space associated with the beta coalescents, and we find the sum of the lengths of the branches in the coalescent tree, both of which are determined by the behavior of coalescents at small times. We extend most of these results to other $\varLambda$-coalescents for which $\varLambda$ has the same asymptotic behavior near zero as the $\operatorname {Beta}(2-\alpha,\alpha)$ distribution. This work complements recent work of Bertoin and Le Gall, who also used CSBPs to study small-time properties of $\varLambda$-coalescents.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AIHP103 the Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincar\'e - Probabilit\'es et Statistiques (http://www.imstat.org/aihp/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Critical branching Brownian motion with absorption: particle configurations

We consider critical branching Brownian motion with absorption, in which there is initially a single particle at $x > 0$, particles move according to independent one-dimensional Brownian motions with the critical drift of $-\sqrt{2}$, and particles are absorbed when they reach zero. Here we obtain asymptotic results concerning the behavior of the process before the extinction time, as the position $x$ of the initial particle tends to infinity. We estimate the number of particles in the system at a given time and the position of the right-most particle. We also obtain asymptotic results for the configuration of particles at a typical time

Large deviations for Branching Processes in Random Environment

A branching process in random environment $(Z_n, n \in \N)$ is a generalization of Galton Watson processes where at each generation the reproduction law is picked randomly. In this paper we give several results which belong to the class of {\it large deviations}. By contrast to the Galton-Watson case, here random environments and the branching process can conspire to achieve atypical events such as $Z_n \le e^{cn}$ when $c$ is smaller than the typical geometric growth rate $\bar L$ and $Z_n \ge e^{cn}$ when $c > \bar L$. One way to obtain such an atypical rate of growth is to have a typical realization of the branching process in an atypical sequence of environments. This gives us a general lower bound for the rate of decrease of their probability. When each individual leaves at least one offspring in the next generation almost surely, we compute the exact rate function of these events and we show that conditionally on the large deviation event, the trajectory $t \mapsto \frac1n \log Z_{[nt]}, t\in [0,1]$ converges to a deterministic function $f_c :[0,1] \mapsto \R_+$ in probability in the sense of the uniform norm. The most interesting case is when $c < \bar L$ and we authorize individuals to have only one offspring in the next generation. In this situation, conditionally on $Z_n \le e^{cn}$, the population size stays fixed at 1 until a time $\sim n t_c$. After time $n t_c$ an atypical sequence of environments let $Z_n$ grow with the appropriate rate ($\neq \bar L$) to reach $c.$ The corresponding map $f_c(t)$ is piecewise linear and is 0 on $[0,t_c]$ and $f_c(t) = c(t-t_c)/(1-t_c)$ on $[t_c,1].

Accessibility percolation with backsteps

Consider a graph in which each site is endowed with a value called \emph{fitness}. A path in the graph is said to be "open" or "accessible" if the fitness values along that path is strictly increasing. We say that there is accessibility percolation between two sites when such a path between them exists. Motivated by the so called House-of-Cards model from evolutionary biology, we consider this question on the $L$-hypercube $\{0,1\}^L$ where the fitness values are independent random variables. We show that, in the large $L$ limit, the probability that an accessible path exists from an arbitrary starting point to the (random) fittest site is no more than $x^*_{1/2}= 1-\frac12\sinh^{-1}(2) =0.27818\ldots$ and we conjecture that this probability does converge to $x^*_{1/2}$. More precisely, there is a phase transition on the value of the fitness $x$ of the starting site: assuming that the fitnesses are uniform in $[0,1]$, we show that, in the large $L$ limit, there is almost surely no path to the fittest site if $x>x^*_{1/2}$ and we conjecture that there are almost surely many paths if $x<x^*_{1/2}$. If one conditions on the fittest site to be on the opposite corner of the starting site rather than being randomly chosen, the picture remains the same but with the critical point being now $x^*_1= 1-\sinh^{-1}(1)= 0.11863\ldots$. Along the way, we obtain a large $L$ estimation for the number of self-avoiding paths joining two opposite corners of the $L$-hypercube