National and subnational mortality effects of metabolic risk factors and smoking in Iran: a comparative risk assessment

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mortality from cardiovascular and other chronic diseases has increased in Iran. Our aim was to estimate the effects of smoking and high systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), total cholesterol (TC), and high body mass index (BMI) on mortality and life expectancy, nationally and subnationally, using representative data and comparable methods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used data from the Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance Survey to estimate means and standard deviations for the metabolic risk factors, nationally and by region. Lung cancer mortality was used to measure cumulative exposure to smoking. We used data from the death registration system to estimate age-, sex-, and disease-specific numbers of deaths in 2005, adjusted for incompleteness using demographic methods. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain the effect of risk factors on disease-specific mortality. We estimated deaths and life expectancy loss attributable to risk factors using the comparative risk assessment framework.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 2005, high SBP was responsible for 41,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 38,000, 44,000) deaths in men and 39,000 (36,000, 42,000) deaths in women in Iran. High FPG, BMI, and TC were responsible for about one-third to one-half of deaths attributable to SBP in men and/or women. Smoking was responsible for 9,000 deaths among men and 2,000 among women. If SBP were reduced to optimal levels, life expectancy at birth would increase by 3.2 years (2.6, 3.9) and 4.1 years (3.2, 4.9) in men and women, respectively; the life expectancy gains ranged from 1.1 to 1.8 years for TC, BMI, and FPG. SBP was also responsible for the largest number of deaths in every region, with age-standardized attributable mortality ranging from 257 to 333 deaths per 100,000 adults in different regions.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Management of blood pressure through diet, lifestyle, and pharmacological interventions should be a priority in Iran. Interventions for other metabolic risk factors and smoking can also improve population health.</p

Measuring Under-Five Mortality: Validation of New Low-Cost Methods

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What Can We Conclude from Death Registration? Improved Methods for Evaluating Completeness

Julie Rajaratnam and colleagues evaluate the performance of a suite of demographic methods that estimate the fraction of deaths registered and counted by civil registration systems, and identify three variants that generally perform the best

Acharya et al. Respond.

The Sure Start Project was implemented at a large scale and involved pregnant women and subsequent perinatal period. No mothers who had received benefits from the Sure Start programs were affected by stoppage of funding in 2011. Policymakers were informed of the results of the Sure Start projects through various dissemination mechanisms: program report, individual contact, and formal presentations. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print May 14, 2015: e1. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2015.302725)

Evaluating a Large-Scale Community-Based Intervention to Improve Pregnancy and Newborn Health Among the Rural Poor in India.

Objectives. We evaluated the effectiveness of the Sure Start project, which was implemented in 7 districts of Uttar Pradesh, India, to improve maternal and newborn health. Methods. Interventions were implemented at 2 randomly assigned levels of intensity. Forty percent of the areas received a more intense intervention, including community-level meetings with expectant mothers. A baseline survey consisted of 12 000 women who completed pregnancy in 2007; a follow-up survey was conducted for women in 2010 in the same villages. Our quantitative analyses provide an account of the project's impact. Results. We observed significant health improvements in both intervention areas over time; in the more intensive intervention areas, we found greater improvements in care-seeking and healthy behaviors. The more intensive intervention areas did not experience a significantly greater decline in neonatal mortality. Conclusions. This study demonstrates that community-based efforts, especially mothers' group meetings designed to increase care-seeking and healthy behaviors, are effective and can be implemented at large scale

Worldwide mortality in men and women aged 15-59 years from 1970 to 2010: a systematic analysis

Background: Adult deaths are a crucial priority for global health. Causes of adult death are important components of Millennium Development Goals 5 and 6. However, adult mortality has received little policy attention, resources, or monitoring efforts. This study aimed to estimate worldwide mortality in men and women aged 15-59 years. Methods: We compiled a database of 3889 measurements of adult mortality for 187 countries from 1970 to 2010 using vital registration data and census and survey data for deaths in the household corrected for completeness, and sibling history data from surveys corrected for survival bias. We used Gaussian process regression to generate yearly estimates of the probability of death between the ages of 15 years and 60 years (45q15) for men and women for every country with uncertainty intervals that indicate sampling and non-sampling error. We showed that these analytical methods have good predictive validity for countries with missing data. Findings: Adult mortality varied substantially across countries and over time. In 2010, the countries with the lowest risk of mortality for men and women are Iceland and Cyprus, respectively. In Iceland, male 45q15 is 65 (uncertainty interval 61-69) per 1000; in Cyprus, female 45q15 is 38 (36-41) per 1000. Highest risk of mortality in 2010 is seen in Swaziland for men (45q15 of 765 [692-845] per 1000) and Zambia for women (606 [518-708] per 1000). Between 1970 and 2010, substantial increases in adult mortality occurred in sub-Saharan Africa because of the HIV epidemic and in countries in or related to the former Soviet Union. Other regional trends were also seen, such as stagnation in the decline of adult mortality for large countries in southeast Asia and a striking decline in female mortality in south Asia. Interpretation: The prevention of premature adult death is just as important for global health policy as the improvement of child survival. Routine monitoring of adult mortality should be given much greater emphasis. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Age-specific and sex-specific mortality in 187 countries, 1970-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

Estimation of the number and rate of deaths by age and sex is a key first stage for calculation of the burden of disease in order to constrain estimates of cause-specific mortality and to measure premature mortality in populations. We aimed to estimate life tables and annual numbers of deaths for 187 countries from 1970 to 2010