A systematic review and meta-analysis of seroprevalence surveys of ebolavirus infection.

Asymptomatic ebolavirus infection could greatly influence transmission dynamics, but there is little consensus on how frequently it occurs or even if it exists. This paper summarises the available evidence on seroprevalence of Ebola, Sudan and Bundibugyo virus IgG in people without known ebolavirus disease. Through systematic review, we identified 51 studies with seroprevalence results in sera collected from 1961 to 2016. We tabulated findings by study population, contact, assay, antigen and positivity threshold used, and present seroprevalence point estimates and 95% confidence intervals. We classified sampled populations in three groups: those with household or known case-contact; those living in outbreak or epidemic areas but without reported case-contact; and those living in areas with no recorded cases of ebolavirus disease. We performed meta-analysis only in the known case-contact group since this is the only group with comparable exposures between studies. Eight contact studies fitted our inclusion criteria, giving an overall estimate of seroprevalence in contacts with no reported symptoms of 3.3% (95% CI 2.4-4.4, P<0.001), but with substantial heterogeneity

Data for the paper on "Early school failure predicts teenage pregnancy and marriage: a large population-based cohort study in Northern Malawi"

The data originate from a demographic surveillance site (DSS) in Karonga district in northern Malawi covering a population of >35,000 individuals from approx. 8000 households since 2002. This is run by MEIRU (Malawi Epidemiology and Intervention Research Unit). Annual individual and household-level socio-demographic and schooling data were combined with data on participants’ sexual behaviour, including age at sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage to examine the relationship between school progression (drop-out and age-for-grade) and sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage

Data for the paper on “Does early growth failure influence later school performance? A cohort study in Karonga district, northern Malawi”

Anthropometric data collected as part of the baseline census of a demographic surveillance performed between 2002 and 2004 in the southern part of Karonga district in northern Malawi. Data was collected at birth, with follow-up after a year and with further rounds of anthropometric data for all children below the age of 10 between 2008-2011. Individual and household-level socio-demographic and schooling data were also combined to account for socio-economic and schooling histories of participants from 2007-2015, allowing us to examine the relationship between stunting in early years and school outcomes at older ages

Fertility intentions and use of contraception among monogamous couples in northern Malawi in the context of HIV testing: a cross-sectional analysis.

CONTEXT: Knowledge of HIV status may influence fertility desires of married men and women. There is little knowledge about the importance of this influence among monogamously married couples and how knowledge of HIV status influences use of contraception among these couples. METHODOLOGY: We carried out a cross-sectional analysis of interview data collected between October 2008 and September 2009 on men aged 15-59 years and women aged 15-49 years who formed 1766 monogamously married couples within the Karonga Prevention Study demographic surveillance study in northern Malawi. RESULTS: 5% of men and 4% of women knew that they were HIV positive at the time of interview and 81% of men and 89% of women knew that they were HIV negative. 73% of men and 83% of women who knew that they were HIV positive stated that they did not want more children, compared to 35% of men and 38% of women who knew they were HIV negative. Concordant HIV positive couples were more likely than concordant negative couples to desire to stop child bearing (odds ratio 11.5, 95%CI 4.3-30.7, after adjusting for other factors) but only slightly more likely to use contraceptives (adjusted odds ratio 1.5 (95%CI 0.8-3.3). CONCLUSION: Knowledge of HIV positive status is associated with an increase in the reported desire to cease childbearing but there was limited evidence that this desire led to higher use of contraception. More efforts directed towards assisting HIV positive couples to access and use reproductive health services and limit HIV transmission among couples are recommended

Systematic analysis of infectious disease outcomes by age shows lowest severity in school-age children.

The COVID-19 pandemic has ignited interest in age-specific manifestations of infection but surprisingly little is known about relative severity of infectious disease between the extremes of age. In a systematic analysis we identified 142 datasets with information on severity of disease by age for 32 different infectious diseases, 19 viral and 13 bacterial. For almost all infections, school-age children have the least severe disease, and severity starts to rise long before old age. Indeed, for many infections even young adults have more severe disease than children, and dengue was the only infection that was most severe in school-age children. Together with data on vaccine response in children and young adults, the findings suggest peak immune function is reached around 5-14 years of age. Relative immune senescence may begin much earlier than assumed, before accelerating in older age groups. This has major implications for understanding resilience to infection, optimal vaccine scheduling, and appropriate health protection policies across the life course

Trends and measurement of HIV prevalence in northern Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Most data on HIV prevalence in Malawi come from antenatal clinic (ANC) surveillance and are, therefore, subject to bias. OBJECTIVES: HIV prevalence and risk factors were measured using population-based data to assess the accuracy of ANC surveillance and changes in prevalence and risk factors for HIV over time. METHODS: HIV prevalence was measured in 1988-1993 and 1998-2001 in community controls from case-control studies of mycobacterial disease in Karonga District, Malawi. ANC surveillance studies in the district began in 1999. RESULTS: Age and area-standardized HIV prevalence in women aged 15-49 years in the community was 3.9% in 1988-1990, 12.5% in 1991-1993 and 13.9% in 1998-2001. For men, HIV prevalence was 3.7%, 9.2% and 11.4% in the same periods. In 1988-1993, HIV positivity was associated with occupations other than farming, with increased schooling and being born outside Karonga District. In 1998-2001, non-farmers were still at higher risk but the other associations were not seen. The age- and area-adjusted HIV prevalence in the ANC in 1999-2001 was 9.2%. The underestimate can be explained largely by marriage and mobility. Reduced fertility in HIV-positive individuals was demonstrated in both ANC and community populations. A previously recommended parity-based adjustment gave an estimated female HIV prevalence of 15.0%. CONCLUSIONS: HIV prevalence has increased and continues to be higher in non-farmers. The increase is particularly marked in those with no education. ANC surveillance underestimated HIV prevalence in the female population in all but the youngest age group. Although there were differences in sociodemographic factors, a parity-based adjustment gave a reasonable estimate of female HIV prevalence

Risk factors for developing clinical infection with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) amongst hospital patients initially only colonized with MRSA.

In hospital outbreaks of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) many patients are initially colonized without infection. The reasons why some progress to infection while others do not are not known. A cohort of 479 hospital patients, initially only colonized with MRSA, was followed prospectively for the development of MRSA infection. Risk factors for progression to infection were assessed using Cox proportional hazards survival analysis. Fifty-three patients (11.1%) developed 68 MRSA infections. Intensive care setting, administration of three or more antibiotics, ulcers, surgical wounds, nasogastric or endotracheal tubes, drains, and urinary or intravenous catheterization were all associated with increased rates of MRSA infection. Multivariate analysis showed that intensive care patients, compared with medical patients, had a higher rate of developing MRSA infection within the first four days of admission, with a hazard ratio of 26.9 (95% CI 5.7-126). Surgical wounds, pressure ulcers and intravenous catheterization were also independent risk factors, with hazard ratios (and 95% CI) of 2.9 (1.3-6.3); 3.0 (1.6-5.7) and 4.7 (1.4-15.6), respectively. These findings suggest that, during an MRSA outbreak, clinical infection would be reduced if surgical and intensive care patients received priority for the prevention of initial colonization with MRSA. Prevention of pressure ulcers, and strict aseptic care of intravenous catheters and surgical wounds would also reduce the development of MRSA infection. Since early treatment with vancomycin is known to reduce the mortality, patients colonized with MRSA who also have one or more of these risk factors may warrant empirical vancomycin therapy at the earliest suggestion of infection

Use of antenatal clinic surveillance to assess the effect of sexual behavior on HIV prevalence in young women in Karonga district, Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Antenatal clinic (ANC) surveillance is the primary source of HIV prevalence estimates in low-resource settings. In younger women, prevalence approximates incidence. Sexual behavior monitoring to explain HIV distribution and trends is seldom attempted in ANC surveys. We explore the use of marital history in ANC surveillance as a proxy for sexual behavior. METHODS: Five ANC clinics in a rural African district participated in surveillance from 1999 to 2004. Unlinked anonymous HIV testing and marital history interviews (including age at first sex and socioeconomic variables) were conducted. Data on women aged <25 years were analyzed. RESULTS: Inferred sexual exposure before marriage and after first marriage increased the adjusted odds of infection with HIV by more than 0.1 for each year of exposure. Increasing years within a first marriage did not increase HIV risk. After adjusting for age, women in more recent birth cohorts were less likely to be infected. CONCLUSIONS: Marital status is useful behavioral information and can be collected in ANC surveys. Exposure in an ongoing first marriage did not increase the odds of infection with HIV in this age group. HIV prevalence decreased over time in young women. ANC surveillance programs should develop proxy sexual behavior questions, particularly in younger women

Earlier menarche is associated with a higher prevalence of Herpes simplex type-2 (HSV-2) in young women in rural Malawi.

Remarkably little is known about associations between age at menarche and sexually transmitted infections, although girls with earlier menarche tend to have earlier sexual debut and school drop-out, so an association might be expected. In a population-based survey of >3000 women aged 15-30 in northern Malawi we show that those with earlier menarche had earlier sexual debut, earlier marriage and were more often Herpes simplex type-2 (HSV-2) positive. Compared to those with menarche aged <14, the age-adjusted odds ratios for HSV-2 were 0.89 (95%CI 0.71-1.1), 0.71 (0.57-0.89) and 0.69 (0.54-0.89) for menarche aged 14, 15 and 16+ respectively. This association persisted after adjusting for socio-economic factors, including schooling, and for sexual behaviour. No such association was seen with HIV infection, which is much less common and less uniformly distributed than HSV-2 in this population. The extra vulnerability of girls with earlier menarche needs to be recognised. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.01604.001

Earlier menarche is associated with a higher prevalence of Herpes simplex type-2 (HSV-2) in young women in rural Malawi

Remarkably little is known about associations between age at menarche and sexually transmitted infections, although girls with earlier menarche tend to have earlier sexual debut and school drop-out, so an association might be expected. In a population-based survey of &gt;3000 women aged 15–30 in northern Malawi we show that those with earlier menarche had earlier sexual debut, earlier marriage and were more often Herpes simplex type-2 (HSV-2) positive. Compared to those with menarche aged &lt;14, the age-adjusted odds ratios for HSV-2 were 0.89 (95%CI 0.71–1.1), 0.71 (0.57–0.89) and 0.69 (0.54–0.89) for menarche aged 14, 15 and 16+ respectively. This association persisted after adjusting for socio-economic factors, including schooling, and for sexual behaviour. No such association was seen with HIV infection, which is much less common and less uniformly distributed than HSV-2 in this population. The extra vulnerability of girls with earlier menarche needs to be recognised