Predicting the Amplitude of a Solar Cycle Using the North-South Asymmetry in the Previous Cycle: II. An Improved Prediction for Solar Cycle~24

Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874-2006, (Javaraiah, MNRAS, 377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval of -1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the southern hemisphere and in the time-interval of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112 + or - 13 and 74 + or -10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that in case of (1), the north-south asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years in advance, and we get 103 + or -10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we found a similar but a more statistically significant (r=0.983) relationship, say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north-south difference used in (3). By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get 87 + or - 7 for the amplitude of cycle 24.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures, Published in Solar Physics 252, 419-439 (2008

Success of an International Learning Health Care System in Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation: The American Society of Blood and Marrow Transplantation Clinical Case Forum

The ASBMT Clinical Case Forum (CCF) was launched in 2014 as an online secure tool to enhance interaction and communication among hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) professionals worldwide through the discussion of challenging clinical care issues. After 14 months, we reviewed clinical and demographical data on cases posted in the CCF from 1/29/2014 to 3/18/2015. A total of 137 cases were posted during the study period. Ninety-two cases (67%) were allogeneic HCT, 29 (21%) autologous HCT and in 16 (12%) the type of transplant (auto vs. allo) was still under consideration. The diseases most frequently discussed included non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL; n = 30, 22%), acute myeloid leukemia (AML; n = 23, 17%) and multiple myeloma (MM; n = 20, 15%). When compared with the US transplant activity reported by the US Department of Health and Human Services, NHL and acute lymphoblastic leukemia cases were overrepresented in the CCF while myeloma was underrepresented (P < 0.001). A total of 259 topics were addressed in the CCF with a median of two topics/case (range 1-6). Particularly common topics included whether transplant was indicated (n = 57, 41%), conditioning regimen choice (n = 44, 32%), and post-HCT complications after day 100 (n = 43, 31%). The ASBMT CCF is a successful tool for collaborative discussion of complex cases in the HCT community worldwide and may allow identification of areas of controversy or unmet need from clinical, educational and research perspectives

Induction within or after 12 hours of ≥36 weeks' prelabor rupture of membranes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the incidence of chorioamnionitis in women with singleton gestations with ≥36 weeks' prelabor rupture of membranes induced with oxytocin within or after 12 hours of prelabor rupture of membranes. DATA SOURCES: The search was conducted using MEDLINE, Web of Sciences, Scopus, ClinicalTrial.gov, OVID, and Cochrane Library as electronic databases from their inception to May 2020. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials of women with singleton cephalic gestations and prelabor rupture of membranes at ≥36 weeks comparing induction of labor with oxytocin either ≤12 hours after prelabor rupture of membranes or &gt;12 hours after prelabor rupture of membranes (expectant management group). STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: The risk of bias in each included study was assessed using the criteria outlined in the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions. All analyses were done using an intention-to-treat approach, evaluating women according to the treatment group to which they were randomly allocated in the original trials. The primary outcome was the incidence of chorioamnionitis. RESULTS: After exclusions, 9 randomized controlled trials including 3759 women were analyzed. Women with singleton cephalic gestations and prelabor rupture of membranes at ≥36 weeks who have induction of labor ≤12 hours after prelabor rupture of membranes have shorter time between prelabor rupture of membranes and delivery (-12.68 hours; 95% confidence interval, -16.15 to -9.21) and higher chance of delivering within 24 hours of prelabor rupture of membranes (91% vs 46%; relative risk, 1.93; 95% confidence interval, 1.59-2.35). Cesarean and operative vaginal deliveries were not significantly different between the groups. Induction of labor ≤12 hours after prelabor rupture of membranes was also associated with significantly fewer incidences of chorioamnionitis (5.3% vs 9.9%; relative risk, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.40-0.97), endometritis (2.4% vs 4.2%; relative risk, 0.59; 95% confidence interval, 0.40-0.87), neonatal sepsis (6.1% vs 11.8%; relative risk, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.27-0.79), and admission to neonatal intensive care unit (6.4% vs 12.0%; relative risk, 0.54; 95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.69) compared with women managed expectantly, usually at &gt;24 hours. The subgroup analysis of 3323 women with induction of labor at ≤6 hours showed similar results, including similar significant reductions in chorioamnionitis, endometritis, neonatal sepsis, and admission to neonatal intensive care unit. CONCLUSION: Women with symptoms of prelabor rupture of membranes at ≥36 weeks should be evaluated promptly, and if prelabor rupture of membranes is confirmed, they should have induction of labor within 12 hours and perhaps even within 6 hours since the first symptom of prelabor rupture of membranes. This management is associated with significantly less morbidity, especially in terms of infections, for both the mother and the baby, with no evidence of any harm