Universally Sloppy Parameter Sensitivities in Systems Biology

Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring \emph{in vivo} biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a `sloppy' spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters.Comment: Submitted to PLoS Computational Biology. Supplementary Information available in "Other Formats" bundle. Discussion slightly revised to add historical contex

The sloppy model universality class and the Vandermonde matrix

In a variety of contexts, physicists study complex, nonlinear models with many unknown or tunable parameters to explain experimental data. We explain why such systems so often are sloppy; the system behavior depends only on a few `stiff' combinations of the parameters and is unchanged as other `sloppy' parameter combinations vary by orders of magnitude. We contrast examples of sloppy models (from systems biology, variational quantum Monte Carlo, and common data fitting) with systems which are not sloppy (multidimensional linear regression, random matrix ensembles). We observe that the eigenvalue spectra for the sensitivity of sloppy models have a striking, characteristic form, with a density of logarithms of eigenvalues which is roughly constant over a large range. We suggest that the common features of sloppy models indicate that they may belong to a common universality class. In particular, we motivate focusing on a Vandermonde ensemble of multiparameter nonlinear models and show in one limit that they exhibit the universal features of sloppy models.Comment: New content adde

Noncanonical splicing junctions between exons and transposable elements represent a source of immunogenic recurrent neo-antigens in patients with lung cancer

Although most characterized tumor antigens are encoded by canonical transcripts (such as differentiation or tumor-testis antigens) or mutations (both driver and passenger mutations), recent results have shown that noncanonical transcripts including long noncoding RNAs and transposable elements (TEs) can also encode tumor-specific neo-antigens. Here, we investigate the presentation and immunogenicity of tumor antigens derived from noncanonical mRNA splicing events between coding exons and TEs. Comparing human non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and diverse healthy tissues, we identified a subset of splicing junctions that is both tumor specific and shared across patients. We used HLA-I peptidomics to identify peptides encoded by tumor-specific junctions in primary NSCLC samples and lung tumor cell lines. Recurrent junction-encoded peptides were immunogenic in vitro, and CD8+ T cells specific for junction-encoded epitopes were present in tumors and tumor-draining lymph nodes from patients with NSCLC. We conclude that noncanonical splicing junctions between exons and TEs represent a source of recurrent, immunogenic tumor-specific antigens in patients with NSCLC

Epigenetically controlled tumor antigens derived from splice junctions between exons and transposable elements

Oncogenesis often implicates epigenetic alterations, including derepression of transposable elements (TEs) and defects in alternative splicing. Here, we explore the possibility that noncanonical splice junctions between exons and TEs represent a source of tumor-specific antigens. We show that mouse normal tissues and tumor cell lines express wide but distinct ranges of mRNA junctions between exons and TEs, some of which are tumor specific. Immunopeptidome analyses in tumor cell lines identified peptides derived from exon-TE splicing junctions associated to MHC-I molecules. Exon-TE junction-derived peptides were immunogenic in tumor-bearing mice. Both prophylactic and therapeutic vaccinations with junction-derived peptides delayed tumor growth in vivo. Inactivation of the TE-silencing histone 3-lysine 9 methyltransferase Setdb1 caused overexpression of new immunogenic junctions in tumor cells. Our results identify exon-TE splicing junctions as epigenetically controlled, immunogenic, and protective tumor antigens in mice, opening possibilities for tumor targeting and vaccination in patients with cancer

We argue that any va...

ABSTRACT: Successful predictions are among the most compelling validations of any model. Extracting falsifiable predictions from nonlinear multiparameter models is complicated by the fact that such models are commonly sloppy, possessing sensitivities to different parameter combinations that range over many decades. Here we discuss how sloppiness affects the sorts of data that best constrain model predictions, makes linear uncertainty approximations dangerous, and introduces computational difficulties in Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis. We also present a useful test problem and suggest refinements to the standards by which models are communicated