Efficient Monte Carlo Integration Using Boosted Decision Trees and Generative Deep Neural Networks

New machine learning based algorithms have been developed and tested for Monte Carlo integration based on generative Boosted Decision Trees and Deep Neural Networks. Both of these algorithms exhibit substantial improvements compared to existing algorithms for non-factorizable integrands in terms of the achievable integration precision for a given number of target function evaluations. Large scale Monte Carlo generation of complex collider physics processes with improved efficiency can be achieved by implementing these algorithms into commonly used matrix element Monte Carlo generators once their robustness is demonstrated and performance validated for the relevant classes of matrix elements

Undercoverage in high-statistics counting experiments with finite MC samples

We consider the problem of setting a confidence interval on a parameter of interest from a high-statistics counting experiment in the presence of systematic uncertainties modeled as unconstrained nuisance parameters. We use the profile-likelihood test statistic in the asymptotic limit for confidence interval setting and focus on the case where the likelihood function is derived from a finite sample of Monte Carlo simulated events. We prove as a general result that statistical uncertainties in the Monte Carlo sample affect the coverage of the confidence interval always in the same direction, namely they lead to a systematic undercoverage of the interval. We argue that such spurious effects might not be fully accounted for by statistical methods that are usually adopted in HEP measurements to counteract the effects of finite-size MC samples, such as those based on the Barlow-Beeston likelihood

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Systematic Comparison of Mathematical Models of the Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Incidence in South Africa

Background: Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART. Methods and Findings: Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results. Conclusions: Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences between model predictions could not be explained by differences in model structure or parameterization that were hypothesized to affect intervention impact

Measurement of the charge ratio of atmospheric muons with the CMS detector

We present a measurement of the ratio of positive to negative muon fluxes from cosmic ray interactions in the atmosphere, using data collected by the CMS detector both at ground level and in the underground experimental cavern at the CERN LHC. Muons were detected in the momentum range from 5 GeV/c to 1 TeV/c . The surface flux ratio is measured to be 1.2766±0.0032(stat.)±0.0032(syst.), independent of the muon momentum, below 100 GeV/c. This is the most precise measurement to date. At higher momenta the data are consistent with an increase of the charge ratio, in agreement with cosmic ray shower models and compatible with previous measurements by deep-underground experiments.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Observation of long-range, near-side angular correlations in proton-proton collisions at the LHC

Results on two-particle angular correlations for charged particles emitted in proton-proton collisions at center-of-mass energies of 0.9, 2.36, and 7 TeV are presented, using data collected with the CMS detector over a broad range of pseudorapidity (η) and azimuthal angle (ϕ). Short-range correlations in Δη, which are studied in minimum bias events, are characterized using a simple “independent cluster” parametrization in order to quantify their strength (cluster size) and their extent in η (cluster decay width). Long-range azimuthal correlations are studied differentially as a function of charged particle multiplicity and particle transverse momentum using a 980 nb[superscript −1] data set at 7 TeV. In high multiplicity events, a pronounced structure emerges in the two-dimensional correlation function for particle pairs with intermediate p [subscript T] of 1–3 GeV/c, 2.0 < |Δη| < 4.8 and Δϕ ≈ 0. This is the first observation of such a long-range, near-side feature in two-particle correlation functions in pp or p[−over]p collisions

Measurement of the elliptic anisotropy of charged particles produced in PbPb collisions at √sNN=2.76 TeV

The anisotropy of the azimuthal distributions of charged particles produced in [√ over s[subscript NN]]=2.76 TeV PbPb collisions is studied with the CMS experiment at the LHC. The elliptic anisotropy parameter, v[subscript 2], defined as the second coefficient in a Fourier expansion of the particle invariant yields, is extracted using the event-plane method, two- and four-particle cumulants, and Lee-Yang zeros. The anisotropy is presented as a function of transverse momentum (p[subscript T]), pseudorapidity (η) over a broad kinematic range, 0.3<p[subscript T]<20 GeV/c, |η|<2.4, and in 12 classes of collision centrality from 0 to 80%. The results are compared to those obtained at lower center-of-mass energies, and various scaling behaviors are examined. When scaled by the geometric eccentricity of the collision zone, the elliptic anisotropy is found to obey a universal scaling with the transverse particle density for different collision systems and center-of-mass energies

Search for the standard model Higgs boson decaying to bottom quarks in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV

A search for the standard model Higgs boson (H) decaying to b[bar over b] when produced in association with weak vector bosons (V) is reported for the following modes: W(μν)H, W(eν)H, Z(μμ)H, Z(ee)H and Z(νν)H. The search is performed in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.7 fb[superscript −1], recorded by the CMS detector in proton–proton collisions at the LHC with a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. No significant excess of events above the expectation from background is observed. Upper limits on the VH production cross section times the H→b[bar over b] branching ratio, with respect to the expectations for a standard model Higgs boson, are derived for a Higgs boson in the mass range 110–135 GeV. In this range, the observed 95% confidence level upper limits vary from 3.4 to 7.5 times the standard model prediction; the corresponding expected limits vary from 2.7 to 6.7 times the standard model prediction.European Organization for Nuclear ResearchUnited States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Measurement of the production cross section for pairs of isolated photons in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV

The integrated and differential cross sections for the production of pairs of isolated photons is measured in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV with the CMS detector at the LHC. A data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36 pb[superscript −1] is analysed. A next-to-leading-order perturbative QCD calculation is compared to the measurements. A discrepancy is observed for regions of the phase space where the two photons have an azimuthal angle difference Δφ ≲ 2.8 rad.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Search for supersymmetry in pp collisions at 7 TeV in events with jets and missing transverse energy

A search for supersymmetry with R-parity conservation in proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV is presented. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 35 pb[superscript -1] collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC. The search is performed in events with jets and significant missing transverse energy, characteristic of the decays of heavy, pair-produced squarks and gluinos. The primary background, from standard model multijet production, is reduced by several orders of magnitude to a negligible level by the application of a set of robust kinematic requirements. With this selection, the data are consistent with the standard model backgrounds, namely t [bar over t], W + jet and Z + jet production, which are estimated from data control samples. Limits are set on the parameters of the constrained minimal supersymmetric extension of the standard model. These limits extend those set previously by experiments at the Tevatron and LEP colliders.European Organization for Nuclear ResearchUnited States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.

Measurement of the charge asymmetry in top-quark pair production in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

The difference in angular distributions between top quarks and antiquarks, commonly referred to as the charge asymmetry, is measured in pp collisions at the LHC with the CMS experiment. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 1.09 fb[superscript −1] at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. Top-quark pairs are selected in the final state with an electron or muon and four or more jets. At least one jet is identified as originating from b-quark hadronization. The charge asymmetry is measured in two variables, one based on the pseudorapidities (η) of the top quarks and the other on their rapidities (y). The results A[η over C] = −0.017 ± 0.032 (stat.)[+0.025 over −0.036] (syst.) and A[y over C] = −0.013 ± 0.028 (stat.)[+0.029 over −0.031] (syst.) are consistent within uncertainties with the standard-model predictions.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio