Technology assessment of renewable energy sustainability in South Africa

Thesis (PhD (School of Public Leadership))--University of Stellenbosch, 2012.Please download the required VENSIM software from: http://www.vensim.com/freedownload.htmlENGLISH ABSTRACT: Technology assessment has changed in nature over the last four decades. It changed from an analytical tool for technology evaluation, which depends heavily on quantitative and qualitative modelling methodologies, into a strategic planning tool for policy-making concerning acceptable new technologies, which depends on participative policy problem analysis. The goal of technology assessment today is to generate policy options for solutions of organisational and societal problems, which at the operational level, utilise new technologies that are publicly acceptable; that is, viable policy options. Energy technology assessment for sustainability is inherently a complex and dynamic process that requires a holistic and transdisciplinary approach. In the South Africa context, specifically, there is no formal and coherent approach to energy technology assessment from a sustainability perspective. Without a formal comprehensive or well integrated technology assessment approach to evaluate the sustainability of any technology, the policy-makers, technology designers, and decision-makers are faced with difficulty in terms of making reasoned decisions about the appropriate technology options. This study developed a framework that incorporates a technology assessment approach, namely, system dynamics, within the broader scope of technology development for sustainability. The framework, termed the Systems Approach to Technology Sustainability Assessment (SATSA), integrates three key elements: technology development, sustainable development, and a dynamic systems approach. The study then provides a guiding process of applying the framework to energy technology assessment theory and practice within the context of sustainable development. Biodiesel, a cleaner burning replacement fuel, argued to potentially contribute to sustainable development, is used for the demonstration. Biodiesel development entails complex interactions of actors such as the technology developers, government at different levels, communities, as well as the natural environment. Different actions or responses in the greater system might hinder or undermine the positive effects of such a development. Based on the SATSA framework, a Bioenergy Technology Sustainability Assessment (BIOTSA) model was developed. The BIOTSA model was used to test the outcomes of a proposed biodiesel production development in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa on selected sustainability indicators. In addition, some policy scenarios were tested to compare how they assist in improving the selected indicators. The BIOTSA model results are useful in comparing dynamic consequences resulting from a proposed biodiesel production development and the respective policies and decisions that may arise from such a development. The testing and validation of the BIOTSA model was carried out based on structural validity, behavioural validity, and expert opinion. Potential policy scenario outcomes and their implication, on the selected sustainability indicators, were also tested. The opinions of the selected stakeholders indicated that the BIOTSA model was useful in providing an understanding of the potential impacts of the biodiesel development on selected sustainability indicators in the Eastern Cape Province. Thus, the SATSA framework can be applied for assessing sustainability of other renewable energy technologies. In addition, system dynamics provide a useful and a feasible dynamic systems approach for energy technology sustainability assessment. Finally, the model building process and transdisciplinary nature of this study enabled the identification of the potential problems that could arise during the biodiesel production development. In addition, gaps in data and knowledge were identified and the recommendation for future work in this field is highlighted. Nevertheless, the findings of the BIOTSA model could inform policy- and decision-making in biodiesel production development in South Africa. The development of similar models for other renewable energy development efforts is thus recommended. The current efforts to facilitate the large-scale roll out of concentrated solar thermal technologies in Southern Africa, for example, would require the development of a Solar Thermal Technology Sustainability Assessment (SOTTSA) model.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die aard van tegnologie assessering het in die afgelope vier dekades verander. Dit het verander ten opsigte van ’n analitiese hulpmiddel vir tegnologie evaluering, wat hoofsaaklik staatmaak op kwalitatiewe en kwantitatiewe modelleringsmetodiek, na ’n strategiese beplanningshulpmiddel vir beleidvorming met betrekking tot nuwe aanvaarbare tegnologieë, wat afhanklik is van ’n deelnemende beleidsprobleem analise. Vandag se doel vir tegnologie assessering is om beleidsopsies vir oplossings van organisatoriese en sosiale probleme te genereer, wat op operasionele vlak gebruik maak van nuwe tegnologieë wat deur die publiek aanvaar is; met ander woorde, lewensvatbare beleidsopsies. Energie tegnologie assessering vir volhoubaarheid is sonder twyfel ’n komplekse en dinamiese proses wat ’n holistiese en transdisiplinêre benadering benodig. In die Suid- Afrikaanse konteks is daar geen formele en samehangende benadering tot tegnologie assessering vanaf ’n volhoubaarheidsperspektief nie. Beleidsmakers, tegnologie ontwerpers en besluitnemers mag sukkel om beredenerende besluite te neem oor die toepaslike tegnologie opsies sonder ’n formele omvattende of goed geïntegreerde tegnologie assesseringsbenadering om die volhoubaarheid van enige tegnologie te evalueer. Hierdie studie het ’n raamwerk ontwerp wat die tegnologie assesseringsbenadering inkorporeer binne die breë bestek van tegnologiese ontwikkeling vir volhoubaarheid naamlik, stelsel dinamika. Die raamwerk, genoem die Sisteem Benadering tot Tegnologie Volhoubaarheidsassessering (SBTVA) integreer drie sleutelelemente: tegnologiese ontwikkeling, volhoubaarheidsontwikkeling, en ʼn dinamiese stelsels benadering. Verder verskaf die studie ’n leidende proses te opsigte van die toepassing van die raamwerk tot energie tegnologie assesseringsteorie en praktyk binne die konteks van volhoubaarheidsontwikkeling. Biodiesel word gebruik vir die demonstrasie omdat dit gereken word as ’n skoner plaasvervanger vir brandstof en daar aangevoer word dat dit ’n potensiële bydraer tot volhoubaarheidsontwikkeling is. Die ontwikkeling van biodiesel behels komplekse interaksie tussen verskeie akteurs soos tegnologiese ontwikkelaars, die regering op verskillende vlakke, gemeenskappe asook die natuurlike omgewing. Verskeie aksies of reaksies in die groter sisteem mag dalk die positiewe effek van so ontwikkeling ondermyn of verhinder. ’n Biodiesel Tegnologiese Volhoubaarheidsassessering (BIOTVA) model is ontwerp gebaseer op die SBTVA raamwerk. Die BIOTVA model is gebruik om die uitkomste op geselekteerde volhoubaarheidsaanduiders van ’n voorgestelde biodiesel produksie ontwikkeling in die Oos- Kaap Provinsie van Suid-Afrika te toets. Buiten vir die voorafgaande is sekere beleidtoekomsblikke ook getoets om te vergelyk hoe hulle sal help om die geselekteerde aanwysers te verbeter. Die BIOTVA model resultate is behulpsaam in die vergelyking van dinamiese gevolge wat voortspruit uit die voorgestelde biodiesel produksie ontwikkeling asook die onderskeie beleide en besluite wat mag ontstaan van so ’n ontwikkeling. Die toetsing en bekragtiging van die BIOTVA model was uitgevoer gebaseer op strukturele geldigheid, gedragsgeldigheid, en kundige opinie. Potensiële beleidtoekomsblikke uitkomste en die nagevolge, ten opsigte van die geselekteerde volhoubaarheidsaanduiders, is ook getoets. Die opinies van die geselekteerde aandeelhouers het aangedui dat die BIOTVA model bruikbaar is om ’n beter begrip te verskaf ten opsigte van die potensiële impak wat die biodiesel ontwikkeling op geselekteerde volhoubaarheidsaanduiders in die Oos-Kaap Provinsie sal hê. As gevolg hiervan kan die SBTVA raamwerk toegepas word om die volhoubaarheid van ander herwinbare energie tegnologieë te assesseer. Buiten die voorafgaande kan stelsel dinamika ’n bruikbare en uitvoerbare dinamiese stelselbenadering vir energie tegnologie volhoubaarheidsassessering verskaf. Ten slotte, die model bouproses en transdisiplinêre aarde van die studie het gehelp om potensiële probleme wat kan voorkom tydens die biodiesel produksie ontwikkeling te identifiseer. Daarby is gapings in data en kennis ook geïdentifiseer en die aanbevelings vir verdere studie in die veld is uitgelig. Nieteenstaande kan die bevindings van die BIOTVA model beleidmakers en besluitnemers in die biodiesel produksie ontwikkeling van Suid- Afrika inlig. Die ontwikkeling van soortgelyke modelle vir ander herwinbare energie ontwikkelingspogings word aanbeveel. As voorbeeld sal die huidige pogings om die grootskaalse uitrol van gekonsentreerde son termiese tegnologieë in Suider-Afrika te fasiliteer die ontwikkeling van ’n Son Termiese Tegnologie Volhoubaarheidsassesering (SOTTVA) model benodig

Determinants of producers’ choice of wine grape cultivars in the South African wine industry

Thesis (MAgricAdmin (Agricultural Economics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2005.The wine industry is one of the oldest commercial activities in South Africa. The South African wine grape industry annually produces more than a million tonnes of grapes, making the country the ninth largest producer in the world. The total area under wine grape production is divided into eight regions for administrative purposes. These boundaries are a legacy of the era of controlled marketing and there is continued meaningfulness of having various classifications such as ‘wine of origin’ scheme. The purpose of this study is to identify the factors that determine the producers’ choice of wine grape cultivars in the wine regions in South Africa. Time series data for the period 1990-2003 were used to estimate the parameters of linear regression models. Two equations for each wine grape cultivar in each region were postulated and estimated using Ordinary Least Squares as applied with Eviews. Further, a stepwise regression as applied in STATISTICA was used to eliminate the parameters that were not statistically significant at five percent significant level. In identifying the factors that determine the choice of wine grape cultivars in the regions, the results showed that each wine grape cultivar in each region has its own factors influencing the producers’ choice of that specific wine grape cultivar. Same wine grape cultivars in different regions similarly have its own factors determining the producers’ choice. The implication of this is that there are differences in terms of the requirements and types of crops and wine grape cultivars grown in each region. However, the most important result that emerged with regular frequency is that, the factors determining the producers’ choice of a specific wine grape cultivar for each region is price of other wine grape cultivars and competitive products in that wine region. The price of specific wine grape cultivars only had an influence on few wine grape cultivars. The implication is that the producers in South Africa appears to consider the prices of other wine grape cultivars and competitive products before making a choice of whether to plant or uproot a specific wine grape cultivar more than the price of the specific wine grape cultivar. This supports the theory that farm prices play a key role in allocating resources and in rewarding efficient producers

A Systematic Review on the Application of the Living Lab Concept and Role of Stakeholders in the Energy Sector

The living lab concept is identified as having the potential to provide a platform to test technologies and support energy transition. However, the application of the concept to the energy sector is limited, though emerging. This study undertook a systematic literature review to understand the extent of the application of the living lab concept, with the particular aim of informing the processes to establish such a platform in urban Africa. Using a sample of 35 papers, only 17 papers were related to energy-living labs, while 18 papers were outside the energy field. The scale and contexts of the application of living labs were diverse. However, not all initiatives that defined themselves as living labs were characterised by elements typical of the concept of a living lab. Further, how the stakeholders were identified, and the stakeholder recruitment process in energy living labs was unclear in the sampled studies. A recommendation is to improve transparency in the stakeholder identification, engagement, and recruitment process in energy living labs and to incorporate gendered issues into the setup and management of urban energy living labs

A generic technology assessment framework for sustainable energy transitions in African contexts

DATA AVAILABILITY : No data was used for the research described in the article.How African countries manage transitions to decarbonised, environmentally and socially acceptable energy systems is a topical issue in public policy, politics and academic spheres today. There is recognition that technology assessment plays a critical role in the choice of specific pathways to just clean energy transitions. Yet, there is limited energy technology assessment practice in Africa. In fact, technology assessment is not well understood and institutionalised. This, in part, is due to the absence of Africa context tailored technology assessment frameworks. This study used an integrated literature review to explore the state and forms of technology assessments and their relevance to energy technology assessment research. The review showed that diverse forms of technology assessments have evolved due to changing priorities in policy, methodological and practical aspects. We propose an action-oriented energy technology assessment that considers geographical contexts, sustainable development dimensions, and different energy systems as dynamic and fosters inclusive stakeholder engagement. The main output of our proposal is a 3-phased generic framework for conducting energy technology assessments. We conclude that the action-oriented perspective needs to consider a transdisciplinary approach to promote sustainable energy transition and evaluate the sustainability of different energy transition technologies in systemic socio-political and energy contexts.The National Research Foundation incentive funding for rated researchers.https://www.elsevier.com/locate/techfore2025-11-18hj2024Graduate School of Technology Management (GSTM)SDG-07:Affordable and clean energ

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

CITATION: Baynes, T. M. & Musango, J. K. 2018. Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption. Environmental Research Letters, 13(6):1-13, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac391.The original publication is available at http://iopscience.iop.orgUrban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple 'business-as-usual' scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons/person/year, challenging resource decoupling targets.https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aac391Publisher's versionAuthors retain copyrigh

Some insights about gender-based violence in the Gauteng City-Region (GCR)

The original publication is available at www.seipub.org/ijssThe article draws on a specific slice of data about gender-based violence from a recent Quality of Life (QoL) survey conducted amongst 16,729 respondents in Gauteng. While gender-based violence comes in multiple forms, the focus of the survey was on spousal or partner violence. The survey posed a provocative statement to respondents about the circumstances under which a man is justified in hitting or beating his wife/partner, i.e. if she goes out without telling him; if she doesn’t look after the children; if she argues with him; if she refuses to have sex with him; if she burns the food; and if she is unfaithful. This article explores the extent to which particular attributes of respondents (sex, race, income, education, participation of men/women; as well as participation in civil society organisations) may account for views that spouse/partner beating or hitting is justified. One finding of interest was that the gender-based violence question ‘if she is unfaithful’ received the strongest response across all the socio-economic characteristics that were evaluated.Publishers' Versio

Using an adapted system dynamics approach to determine the linkage between electric vehicle market penetration and affordability

CITATION: Pillay, N. S., Brent, A. C. & Musango, J. K. 2018. Using an adapted system dynamics approach to determine the linkage between electric vehicle market penetration and affordability. In SAIIE29 Proceedings, 24-26 October 2018, Spier, Stellenbosch, South Africa.The original publication is available at https://conferences.sun.ac.za/index.php/saiie29/saiie29/schedConf/presentationsThis paper focuses on an adapted process for system dynamics modelling based on industry experience and the successful implementation of system dynamics models within an electricity utility. The modelling process was demonstrated using a case study of battery electric vehicle (BEV) market penetration in South Africa and its substitution of internal combustion engine vehicle, as a function of affordability based on real disposable income. The results indicate that South Africans are living beyond their “income” constraints and purchasing far more vehicles than what their disposable income allows, with the situation worsening over time. The Gauteng province will have the largest potential to absorb BEVs (81,123) and the highest impact on residential electricity consumption (an additional 4,291 GWh) whilst the lowest is the Northern Cape province with 5,140 BEVs (an equivalent of 272 GWh). However, if disposable income is used as a parametric to determine the affordability of BEVs then there may be 80% less than the expected number of BEVs in terms of market penetration. To benefit from a reduction in carbon emissions in the transport sector, a renewables heavy supply mix would be required else there is not much benefit with South Africa’s current coal heavy supply mix.https://conferences.sun.ac.za/index.php/saiie29/saiie29/paper/view/3723Publisher's versio

Towards a systemic assessment of gendered energy transition in urban households

CITATION: Musango, J. K. & Bassi, A. M. 2021. Towards a systemic assessment of gendered energy transition in urban households. Energies, 14(21):7251, doi:10.3390/en14217251.The original publication is available at https://www.mdpi.comAssessment of gendered energy transition at an urban scale has emerged as a challenging issue for researchers, policy makers and practitioners. With municipalities becoming players in the energy markets, their involvement raises policy issues that need to be better assessed in supporting gendered energy transition. This paper, therefore, contributes to gendered energy transition assessments at urban household level from a policy maker perspective. We developed a system dynamics model to assess the effects of urban energy policy interventions on household energy consumption and gendered measures using Drakenstein Municipality as a case study. The study used secondary data from various sources for the model parameters. We tested three hypothetical policy scenarios: the business-as-usual, the energy subsidy policy and the energy efficiency policy. The results show that understanding the changes in urban household energy consumption and gendered measures due to energy transition interventions is essential for urban policy planning. The energy subsidy policy scenario was observed to increase total energy consumption but also resulted in socio-environmental impacts that might increase inequality and impair human health. Urban household energy transition interventions need to consider a systems approach to develop decision support tools that capture the cross-sector impacts and inform the development of interventions that promote gendered household energy transition.Publisher's versio

Towards a Systemic Assessment of Gendered Energy Transition in Urban Households

Assessment of gendered energy transition at an urban scale has emerged as a challenging issue for researchers, policy makers and practitioners. With municipalities becoming players in the energy markets, their involvement raises policy issues that need to be better assessed in supporting gendered energy transition. This paper, therefore, contributes to gendered energy transition assessments at urban household level from a policy maker perspective. We developed a system dynamics model to assess the effects of urban energy policy interventions on household energy consumption and gendered measures using Drakenstein Municipality as a case study. The study used secondary data from various sources for the model parameters. We tested three hypothetical policy scenarios: the business-as-usual, the energy subsidy policy and the energy efficiency policy. The results show that understanding the changes in urban household energy consumption and gendered measures due to energy transition interventions is essential for urban policy planning. The energy subsidy policy scenario was observed to increase total energy consumption but also resulted in socio-environmental impacts that might increase inequality and impair human health. Urban household energy transition interventions need to consider a systems approach to develop decision support tools that capture the cross-sector impacts and inform the development of interventions that promote gendered household energy transition

Biofuels and sustainability in Africa

The combined effects of climate change, the continued volatility of fuel prices, the recent food crisis and global economic turbulence have triggered a sense of urgency among policymakers, industries and development practitioners to find sustainable and viable solutions in the area of biofuels. This sense of urgency is reflected in the rapid expansion of global biofuels production and markets over the past few years. Biofuels development offers developing countries some prospect of self-reliant energy supplies at national and local levels, with potential economic, ecological, social, and security benefits. Forty-two African countries are net oil importers. This makes them particularly vulnerable to volatility in global fuel prices and dependent on foreign exchange to cover their domestic energy needs. The goal therefore is to reduce the high dependence on imported petroleum by developing domestic, renewable energy. But can this objective be achieved while leaving a minimal social and environmental footprint? A fundamental question is if biofuels can be produced with consideration of social, economic and environmental factors without setting unrealistic expectation for an evolving renewable energy industry that holds such great promise. The overall performance of different biofuels in reducing non-renewable energy use and greenhouse gas emissions varies when considering the entire lifecycle from production through to use. The net performance depends on the type of feedstock, the production process and the amount of non-renewable energy needed. This paper presents an overview of the development of biofuels in Africa, and highlights country-specific economic, environmental and social issues. It proposes a combination framework of policy incentives as a function of technology maturity, discusses practices, processes and technologies that can improve efficiency, lower energy and water demand, and further reduce the social and environmental footprint of biofuels production thereby contributing to sustainable development.Biofuels Sustainability Climate change Environmental footprint Renewable energy Africa