Representing future urban and regional scenarios for flood hazard mitigation

In this paper we analyse urban and regional growth trends by using dynamic spatial models. The objective of this approach is twofold: on the one hand to monitor sustainable development trends and on the other hand to assess flood risk in urban areas. We propose the use of future urban scenarios in order to forecast the effects of urban and regional planning policies. In the last 20 years the extent of built-up areas in Europe has increased by 20%, exceeding clearly the 6% rate of population growth over the same period. This trend contributes to unsustainable development patterns, and moreover, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing in large regions of Europe. The paper is organised in two parts. In the first part we analyse a study case in Friuli-Venezia Giulia (FVG) Region in northern Italy. We analyse several spatial indicators in the form of maps describing population growth and patterns, and the historical growth of built-up areas. Then we show the results of a dynamic spatial model for simulating land use scenarios. The model is based on a spatial dynamics bottom-up approach, and can be defined as a cellular automata (CA)-based model. Future urban scenarios are produced by taking into account several factors –e.g. land use development, population growth or spatial planning policies–. Urban simulations offer a useful approach to understanding the consequences of current spatial planning policies. Inappropriate regional and urban planning can exacerbate the negative effects of extreme hydrological processes. Good land management and planning practices, including appropriate land use and development control in flood-prone areas, represent suitable non-structural solutions to minimise flood damages. The overall effects of these measures in terms of both sustainable development and flood defence can be quantified with the proposed modelling approach. In the second part of the paper we show some preliminary results of a pilot study case. Two future simulations produced by the model were used for a flood risk assessment in Pordenone (one of the four provinces of FVG). In the last 100 years Pordenone has suffered several floods. The two major events were the heavy floods of 1966 (100-year flood event; >500 mm of rain in 36 hours) and 2002 (up to 580 mm of rain in 36 hours). The disastrous consequences of those heavy floods have shown how vulnerable this area is. The flood risk analysis is based on a hydrological hazard map for the Livenza River catchment area, provided by the regional Water Authority. That map covers most of flood hazard areas of Pordenone province. Early results of this study show that the main driving force of natural disasters damage is not only increasing flood hazard, but increasing vulnerability, mainly due to urbanisation in flood prone areas.

Towards urban un-sustainability in Europe? An indicator-based analysis

In this article we analyse the relationship between urban land use development and population density in fifteen European urban areas. In the last 20 years the extent of built-up areas in Europe has increased by 20%, exceeding clearly the 6% rate of population growth over the same period. This is one of the consequences of unsustainable development patterns in large areas of Europe. In order to illustrate such unsustainable process we show five sets of indicators on built-up areas, residential land use, land taken by urban expansion, population density and how the population takes up the built-up space.The results show that analysing urban land use development necessitates the use of complementary indicators. The built-up areas have grown considerably in a sample of 15 European cities. The most rapid growth dates back to 1950s and 1960s. The annual growth pace has slowed down in the 1990s to 0.75 %. In half of the studied cities over 90% of all new housing areas built after the mid-1950s are discontinuous urban developments. This trend is increasing the use of private car and fragmentation of natural areas among others negative effects. When putting these findings into the context of stable or decreasing urban population, it is clear that the structure of most of European cities has become less compact, which demonstrates a de-centralisation process of urban land uses. We close by discussing on one hand the common urban land use and population density trends and on the other hand differences between the studied cities. Although most studied urban areas have experienced dispersed growth, as a result of the analysis we divide the cities in three groups: - compact cities,- cities with looser structures and lower densities,- and cities in the midway between the extremes.

Climate Impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II Project

The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten impacts: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health). The project integrates biophysical direct climate impacts into a macroeconomic economic model, which enables the comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). Under the reference simulation the annual total damages would be around €190 billion/year, almost 2% of EU GDP. The geographical distribution of the climate damages is very asymmetric with a clear bias towards the southern European regions. More than half of the overall annual EU damages are estimated to be due to the additional premature mortality (€120 billion). Moving to a 2°C world would reduce annual climate damages by €60 billion, to €120 billion (1.2% of GDP)

INSPIRE Data Specification Document on Natural Risk Zones : Draft Guidlines version 2.0

This document describes the “INSPIRE data specification on Natural Risk Zones – Guidelines” version 2.0 as developed by the Thematic Working Group (TWG) Natural Risk Zones using both natural and a conceptual schema language. This version is now available for the public consultation. Based on the results of the consultation (received comments and the testing reports), the final version 3.0 will be prepared by the TWGs. The data specification is based on a common template used for all data specifications and has been harmonised using the experience from the development of the Annex I data specifications. This document provides guidelines for the implementation of the provisions laid down in the draft Implementing Rule for spatial data sets and services of the INSPIRE Directive. This document includes two executive summaries that provide a quick overview of the INSPIRE data specification process in general, and the content of the data specification on Natural Risk Zones in particular. We highly recommend that managers, decision makers, and all those new to the INSPIRE process and/or information modelling should read these executive summaries first. The UML diagrams (in Chapter 5) offer a rapid way to see the main elements of the specifications and their relationships. The definition of the spatial object types, attributes, and relationships are included in the Feature Catalogue (also in Chapter 5). People having thematic expertise but not familiar with UML can fully understand the content of the data model focusing on the Feature Catalogue. Users might also find the Feature Catalogue especially useful to check if it contains the data necessary for the applications that they run. The technical details are expected to be of prime interest to those organisations that are/will be responsible for implementing INSPIRE within the field of Natural Risk Zones. The technical provisions and the underlying concepts are often illustrated by examples. Smaller examples are within the text of the specification, while longer explanatory examples and descriptions of selected use cases are attached in the annexes. In order to distinguish the INSPIRE spatial data themes from the spatial object types, the INSPIRE spatial data themes are written in italics

Comparing Constraint Urban Cellular Automata Simulations between Sprawled and Compact Cities.

Abstract not availableJRC.H-Institute for environment and sustainability (Ispra

Modelling Dynamic Spatial Processes: Simulation of Urban Future Scenarios through Cellular Automata.

Abstract not availableJRC.H-Institute for environment and sustainability (Ispra

Monitoring and Forecasting the Dynamics of European Urban Areas - The Territorial Approach as Key for urban Development Strategies

Abstract not availableJRC.H-Institute for environment and sustainability (Ispra

Urban Scenario Simulation through Dynamic Spatial Models. Modelling Urban Growth in Prague.

Abstract not availableJRC.H-Institute for environment and sustainability (Ispra

MOLAND-NI: Development of a Research Tool to Assist in the Assessment of the Impact of Structural Funds Programmes in Northern Ireland and Border Counties of Rep. Ireland. Preliminary Territorial Impact Assessment of the North-West Gas Pipeline Project

Abstract not availableJRC.H-Institute for environment and sustainability (Ispra

Modelling Future Urban Scenarios in Developing Countries. An Application Case Study in Lagos, Nigeria.

Abstract not availableJRC.H-Institute for environment and sustainability (Ispra