Clinical validation of risk scoring systems to predict risk of delayed bleeding after EMR of large colorectal lesions

[Background and Aims]: The Endoscopic Resection Group of the Spanish Society of Endoscopy (GSEED-RE) model and the Australian Colonic Endoscopic Resection (ACER) model were proposed to predict delayed bleeding (DB) after EMR of large superficial colorectal lesions, but neither has been validated. We validated and updated these models.[Methods]: A multicenter cohort study was performed in patients with nonpedunculated lesions ≥20 mm removed by EMR. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the GSEED-RE and ACER models. Difficulty performing EMR was subjectively categorized as low, medium, or high. We created a new model, including factors associated with DB in 3 cohort studies.[Results]: DB occurred in 45 of 1034 EMRs (4.5%); it was associated with proximal location (odds ratio [OR], 2.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.31-6.16), antiplatelet agents (OR, 2.51; 95% CI, .99-6.34) or anticoagulants (OR, 4.54; 95% CI, 2.14-9.63), difficulty of EMR (OR, 3.23; 95% CI, 1.41-7.40), and comorbidity (OR, 2.11; 95% CI, .99-4.47). The GSEED-RE and ACER models did not accurately predict DB. Re-estimation and recalibration yielded acceptable results (GSEED-RE area under the curve [AUC], .64 [95% CI, .54-.74]; ACER AUC, .65 [95% CI, .57-.73]). We used lesion size, proximal location, comorbidity, and antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy to generate a new model, the GSEED-RE2, which achieved higher AUC values (.69-.73; 95% CI, .59-.80) and exhibited lower susceptibility to changes among datasets.[Conclusions]: The updated GSEED-RE and ACER models achieved acceptable prediction levels of DB. The GSEED-RE2 model may achieve better prediction results and could be used to guide the management of patients after validation by other external groups. (Clinical trial registration number: NCT 03050333.)Research support for this study was received from “La Caixa/Caja Navarra” Foundation (ID 100010434;project PR15/11100006)

Endoscopic Injection Therapy in Bleeding Peptic Ulcers. Low Mortality in a High Risk Population

Endoscoric injection therapy was performed in 341 patients consecutively admitted with a bleeding peptic ulcer at high risk of further hemorrhage, assessed by the presence of active arterial bleeding or a nonbleeding visible vessel at emergency endoscopy. Initial hemostasis was achieved in 111 of 119 actively bleeding patients (93%). Rebleeding ocurred in 75 cases (23%), at a mean interval of 53±52 h. A second emergency injection was a ttempted in 36 therapeutic failures, and was successful in 20 (55%). Emergency surgery was finally required in 52 patients (15%). Overall mortality was 4.9%. Major complications occurred in four patients (1.2%) (two perforations and two aspiration pneumonia); therefore, injection therapy is an effective and simple method for treating bleeding ulcers, achieving the initial control of hemorrhage in a majority of cases although the rate of further hemorrhage is not negligible and complications are not irrelevant