Dollarization and financial integration

How does a country's choice of exchange rate regime impact its ability to borrow from abroad? We build a small open economy model in which the government can potentially respond to shocks via domestic monetary policy and by international borrowing. We assume that debt repayment must be incentive compatible when the default punishment is equivalent to permanent exclusion from debt markets. We compare a floating regime to full dollarization. ; We find that dollarization is potentially beneficial, even though it means the loss of the monetary instrument, precisely because this loss can strengthen incentives to maintain access to debt markets. Given stronger repayment incentives, more borrowing can be supported, and thus dollarization can increase international financial integration. This prediction of theory is consistent with the experiences of El Salvador and Ecuador, which recently dollarized, as well as with that of highly-indebted countries like Italy which adopted the Euro as part of Economic and Monetary Union: in each case, around the time of regime change, spreads on foreign currency government debt declined substantially.Financial crises ; Foreign exchange administration

Capital Versus Labor Taxation with Heterogeneous Agents

We investigate the welfare implications of eliminating a proportional capital income tax for a model economy in which heterogeneous households face labor income risk and trade only one asset. Labor taxes rises at the time of the reform to maintain long run budget balance. Our stochastic process for labor earnings is consistent with empirical estimates of earnings risk, and also implies a distribution of asset holdings across households closely resembling that in the United States. We find that a vast majority of households prefers the status quo to the tax reform. This finding is interesting in light of the fact that our reform would be optimal if we abstracted from heterogeneity and assumed a representative agent. Initial household productivity and initial household wealth are independently important in determining a particular household's expected gain or loss, in contrast to a complete markets economy in which only the ratio of asset to labor income matters.

The International Diversification Puzzle Is Not as Bad as You Think

In simple one-good international macro models, the presence of non-diversifiable labor income risk means that country portfolios should be heavily biased toward foreign assets. The fact that the opposite pattern of diversification is observed empirically constitutes the international diversification puzzle. We embed a portfolio choice decision in a frictionless two-country, twogood version of the stochastic growth model. In this environment, which is a workhorse for international business cycle research, we derive a closed-form expression for equilibrium country portfolios. These are biased towards domestic assets, as in the data. Home bias arises because endogenous international relative price fluctuations make domestic stocks a good hedge against non-diversifiable labor income risk. We then use our our theory to link openness to trade to the level of diversification, and find that it offers a quantitatively compelling account for the patterns of international diversification observed across developed economies in recent years.Home bias, international diversification

The international diversification puzzle is not as bad as you think

In simple one-good international macro models, the presence of non-diversifiable labor income risk means that country portfolios should be heavily biased toward foreign assets. The fact that the opposite pattern of diversification is observed empirically constitutes the international diversification puzzle. We embed a portfolio choice decision in a frictionless two-country, two-good version of the stochastic growth model. In this environment, which is a workhorse for international business cycle research, we derive a closed-form expression for equilibrium country portfolios. These are biased towards domestic assets, as in the data. Home bias arises because endogenous international relative price fluctuations make domestic stocks a good hedge against non-diversifiable labor income risk. We then use our theory to link openness to trade to the level of diversification, and find that it offers a quantitatively compelling account for the patterns of international diversification observed across developed economies in recent years.Investments, Foreign ; International trade - Econometric models

Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization

Over the period 1972-1986, the correlations of GDP, employment and investment between the United States and an aggregate of Europe, Canada and Japan were respectively 0.76, 0.66, and 0.63. For the period 1986 to 2000 the same correlations were much lower: 0.26, 0.03 and -0.07 (real regionalization). At the same time, U.S. international asset trade has significantly increased. For example, between 1972 and 1999, United States gross FDI and equity assets in the same group of countries rose from 4 to 23 percent of the U.S. capital stock (financial globalization). We document that the correlation of real shocks between the U.S. and the rest of the world has declined. We then present a model in which international financial market integration occurs endogenously in response to less correlated shocks. Financial integration further reduces the international correlations in GDP and factor supplies. We find that both less correlated shocks and endogenous financial market development are needed to account for all the changes in the international business cycle.

Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization

Over the period 1972-1986, the U.S. business cycle was strongly correlated with the business cycle in the rest of the industrialized world. Over the period 1986-2000, international co-movement was much weaker (real regionalization). At the same time, U.S. international asset trade has increased significantly (financial globalization). We first document these phenomena in detail and then argue that they are related. In particular, we present a model in which financial globalization occurs endogenously in response to less correlated real shocks. Financial globalization, by enhancing cross-border capital flows, further reduces the international correlations in GDP and factor supplies. We find that both less correlated shocks and the endogenous change in international financial markets are needed to quantitatively account for the observed changes in the international business cycle.International business cycles, International diversification, Financial integration, Comovement

The Macroeconomic Implications of Rising Wage Inequality in the United States

This paper explores the macroeconomic and welfare implications of the sharp rise in U.S. wage inequality (1967-1996). In the data, cross-sectional earnings variation increased substantially more than wage variation, due to a sharp rise in the wage-hour correlation. At the same time, inequality in hours worked, consumption and wealth (excluding the top 1%) remained roughly constant through time. The correlation between consumption and hours declined substantially. Using data from the PSID, we decompose the rise in wage inequality into changes in the variance of permanent, persistent and transitory shocks. With the estimated changes in the wage process as the only primitive, we show that a standard calibrated OLG model with incomplete markets can successfully account for all these patterns in cross-sectional U.S. data. The model also allows us to investigate the welfare costs of the rise in inequality: we ?nd that the unconditional expected welfare loss is equivalent to a 5 percent decline in lifetime income for the worst-a?ected cohorts, those entering the labor market in the late 1980Â’s. Ex post, these costs are widely dispersed across agents, due both to di?erences in permanent individual attributes and to differences in labor market histories. An extensive sensitivity analysis veri?es the robustness of our conclusions.

On the Distributional Effects of Reducing Capital Taxes (previously: Factor Taxation with Heterogeneous Agents)

We investigate the welfare implications of changing the mix between capital and labor taxes for a model economy in which heterogeneous households face uninsurable labor income risk. The stochastic process for labor earnings we construct is consistent with empirical estimates of earnings risk, and also implies a distribution of asset holdings across households closely resembling that in the United States. We find that a vast majority of households prefers the status quo to eliminating capital taxes. This finding is interesting in light of the fact that this reform would be optimal if we abstracted from heterogeneity and assumed a representative agent. A second finding is that a utilitarian government prefers the current calibrated U.S. capital income tax rate (39.7 percent) to any increase or decrease in the capital tax rate.Factor taxation; Redistribution; Heterogeneous agents

Consumption and labor supply with partial insurance: an analytical framework

This paper studies consumption and labor supply in a model where agents have partial insurance and face risk and initial heterogeneity in wages and preferences. Equilibrium allocations and variances and covariances of wages, hours and consumption are solved for analytically. We prove that all parameters of the structural model are identified given panel data on wages and hours, and cross-sectional data on consumption. The model is estimated on US data. Second moments involving hours and consumption show that the rise in wage dispersion in the 1970s was effectively insured by households, while the rise in the 1980s was not.Wages ; Consumption (Economics)

Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Incomplete Markets

I undertake a quantitative investigation into the short run effects of changes in the timing of proportional income taxes for model economies in which heterogeneous households face a borrowing constraint. Temporary tax changes are found to have large real effects. In the benchmark model, a temporary tax increase reduces aggregate consumption on impact by around 29 cents for every additional dollar of tax revenue raised. Comparing the benchmark incomplete markets model to a complete markets economy, income tax cuts provide a larger boost to consumption and a smaller investment stimulus when asset markets are incomplete