The Diverse Effects of Government Propaganda in Electoral Authoritarian Regimes: Evidence from Turkey

Previous research conducted in closed autocracies indicates that government propaganda can deter opposition, shift political attitudes, and influence emotions. Yet the specific mechanisms and contextual factors influencing how and when it works remain unclear. We theorize how government propaganda works differently for government supporters and opponents in polarized electoral authoritarian regimes, focusing on emotional reactions and downstream effects on contentious political action. Through two pre-registered surveys in Turkey (N=6,286), we find that supporters exposed to propaganda videos feel increased group belonging and are more susceptible to engage in pro-government activities. Opponents report heightened anger and anxiety and seem deterred from protesting. However, this deterrence effect weakened during the highly contested 2023 electoral campaign. These results indicate that propaganda can help electoral authoritarian regimes deter anti-government action and encourage pro-government action, but that its deterrent effects may weaken during periods of high mobilization and contention