Ventilatory function as a predictor of mortality in lifelong non-smokers: evidence from large British cohort studies

Background Reduced ventilatory function is an established predictor of all-cause mortality in general population cohorts. We sought to verify this in lifelong non-smokers, among whom confounding by active smoking can be excluded, and investigate associations with circulatory and cancer deaths. Methods In UK Biobank, among 149 343 white never-smokers aged 40–69 years at entry, 2401 deaths occurred over a mean of 6.5-year follow-up. In the Health Surveys for England (HSE) 1995, 1996, 2001 and Scottish Health Surveys (SHS) 1998 and 2003 combined, there were 500 deaths among 6579 white never-smokers aged 40–69 years at entry, followed for a mean of 13.9 years. SD (z) scores for forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were derived using Global Lung Initiative 2012 reference equations. These z-scores were related to deaths from all causes, circulatory disease and cancers using proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, height, socioeconomic status, region and survey. Results In the HSE–SHS data set, decreasing z-scores for FEV1 (zFEV1) and FVC (zFVC) were each associated to a similar degree with increased all-cause mortality (hazard ratios per unit decrement 1.17, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.25 for zFEV1 and 1.19, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.28 for zFVC). This was replicated in Biobank (HRs 1.21, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.26 and 1.24, 1.19 to 1.29, respectively). zFEV1 and zFVC were less strongly associated with mortality from circulatory diseases in HSE–SHS (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.40 for zFVC) than in Biobank (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.35 to 1.60 for zFVC). For cancer mortality, HRs were more consistent between cohorts (for zFVC: HRs 1.12, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.24 in HSE–SHS and 1.10, 1.05 to 1.15 in Biobank). The strongest associations were with respiratory mortality (for zFVC: HRs 1.61, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.08 in HSE–SHS and 2.15, 1.77 to 2.61 in Biobank). Conclusions Spirometric indices predicted mortality more strongly than systolic blood pressure or body mass index, emphasising the importance of promoting lung health in the general population, even among lifelong non-smokers

Vertical and horizontal aspects of socio-economic inequity in general practitioner contacts in Scotland

Health status varies across socio-economic groups and health status is generally assumed to predict health care needs. Therefore the need for health care varies across socio-economic groups, and studies of equity in the distribution of health care between socio-economic groups must compare levels of utilisation with levels of need. Economic studies of equity in health care generally assume that health care needs can be derived from the current health-health care relationship. They therefore do not consider whether the current health-health care relationship is (vertically) equitable and the focus is restricted to horizontal inequity. This paper proposes a framework for incorporating the implications of vertical inequity for the socio-economic distribution of health care. An alternative to the current health-health care relationship is proposed using a restriction on the health-elasticity of health care. The health-elasticity of general practitioner contacts in Scotland is found to be generally negative, but positive at low levels of health status. Pro-rich estimates of horizontal inequity and vertical inequity are obtained but neither is statistically significant. Further analysis demonstrates that the magnitude of vertical inequity in health care may be larger than horizontal inequity. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.