From old wars to new wars and global terrorism

The 9/11 attacks created an urgent need to understand contemporary wars and their relationship to older conventional and terrorist wars, both of which exhibit remarkable regularities. The frequency-intensity distribution of fatalities in "old wars", 1816-1980, is a power-law with exponent 1.80. Global terrorist attacks, 1968-present, also follow a power-law with exponent 1.71 for G7 countries and 2.5 for non-G7 countries. Here we analyze two ongoing, high-profile wars on opposite sides of the globe - Colombia and Iraq. Our analysis uses our own unique dataset for killings and injuries in Colombia, plus publicly available data for civilians killed in Iraq. We show strong evidence for power-law behavior within each war. Despite substantial differences in contexts and data coverage, the power-law coefficients for both wars are tending toward 2.5, which is a value characteristic of non-G7 terrorism as opposed to old wars. We propose a plausible yet analytically-solvable model of modern insurgent warfare, which can explain these observations.

From old wars to new wars and global terrorism

Even before 9/11 there were claims that the nature of war had changed fundamentally. The 9/11 attacks created an urgent need to understand contemporary wars and their relationship to older conventional and terrorist wars, both of which exhibit remarkable regularities. The frequency-intensity distribution of fatalities in "old wars", 1816-1980, is a power-law with exponent 1.80. Global terrorist attacks, 1968-present, also follow a power-law with exponent 1.71 for G7 countries and 2.5 for non-G7 countries. Here we analyze two ongoing, high-profile wars on opposite sides of the globe - Colombia and Iraq. Our analysis uses our own unique dataset for killings and injuries in Colombia, plus publicly available data for civilians killed in Iraq. We show strong evidence for power-law behavior within each war. Despite substantial differences in contexts and data coverage, the power-law coefficients for both wars are tending toward 2.5, which is a value characteristic of non-G7 terrorism as opposed to old wars. We propose a plausible yet analytically-solvable model of modern insurgent warfare, which can explain these observations.Comment: For more information, please contact [email protected] or [email protected]

Impact assessment of irrigation management transfer in the Alto Rio Lerma Irrigation District, Mexico

Irrigation managementPrivatizationAssessmentEconomic aspectsLegal aspectsData collectionWater rightsWater allocationWater distributionGroundwaterFinancingMaintenanceOperationsAgricultural productionWater users' associationsFarmer participation

Performance of two transferred modules in the Lagunera Region: Water relations

Water policy / Performance / Privatization / Irrigation systems / Operations / Maintenance / Irrigation efficiency / Water users' associations / Water rights / Water allocation / Water supply / Water distribution

Missed opportunities in full immunization coverage:findings from low- and lower-middle-income countries

BackgroundAn estimated 23 million infants are still not being benefitted from routine immunization services. We assessed how many children failed to be fully immunized even though they or their mothers were in contact with health services to receive other interventions.DesignFourteen countries with Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys carried out after 2000 and with coverage for DPT (Diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis) vaccine below 70% were selected. We defined full immunization coverage (FIC) as having received one dose of BCG (bacille Calmette-Guérin), one dose of measles, three doses of polio, and three doses of DPT vaccines. We tabulated FIC against: antenatal care (ANC), skilled birth attendance (SBA), postnatal care for the mother (PNC), vitamin A supplementation (VitA) for the child, and sleeping under an insecticide-treated bed-net (ITN). Missed opportunities were defined as the percentage of children who failed to be fully immunized among those receiving one or more other interventions.ResultsChildren who received other health interventions were also more likely to be fully immunized. In nearly all countries, FIC was lowest among children born to mothers who failed to attend ANC, and highest when the mother had four or more ANC visits Côte d'Ivoire presented the largest difference in FIC: 54 percentage points (pp) between having four or more ANC visits and lack of ANC. SBA was also related with higher FIC. For instance, the coverage in children without SBA was 36 pp lower than for those with SBA in Nigeria. The largest absolute difference on FIC in relation to PNC was observed for Ethiopia: 31 pp between those without and with PNC. FIC was also positively related with having received VitA. The largest absolute difference was observed in DR Congo: 41 pp. The differences in FIC among whether or not children slept under ITN were much smaller than for other interventions. Haiti presented the largest absolute difference: 16 pp.ConclusionsOur results show the need to develop and implement strategies to vaccinate all children who contact health services in order to receive other interventions

Complexity of the Online Distrust Ecosystem and its Evolution

Collective human distrust (and its associated mis-disinformation) is one of the most complex phenomena of our time. e.g. distrust of medical expertise, or climate change science, or democratic election outcomes, and even distrust of fact-checked events in the current Israel-Hamas and Ukraine-Russia conflicts. So what makes the online distrust ecosystem so resilient? How has it evolved during and since the pandemic? And how well have Facebook mitigation policies worked during this time period? We analyze a Facebook network of interconnected in-built communities (Facebook pages) totaling roughly 100 million users who pre-pandemic were just focused on distrust of vaccines. Mapping out this dynamical network from 2019 to 2023, we show that it has quickly self-healed in the wake of Facebook's mitigation campaigns which include shutdowns. This confirms and extends our earlier finding that Facebook's ramp-ups during COVID were ineffective (e.g. November 2020). Our findings show that future interventions must be chosen to resonate across multiple topics and across multiple geographical scales. Unlike many recent studies, our findings do not rely on third-party black-box tools whose accuracy for rigorous scientific research is unproven, hence raising doubts about such studies' conclusions, nor is our network built using fleeting hyperlink mentions which have questionable relevance

CLASIFICACIÓN TRÓFICA Y CINÉTICA TEMPORAL DE LAS RELACIONES ENTRE PRODUCCIÓN Y CONSUMO EN LA CAPA FÓTICA DE LA PRESA DE UN EMBALSE ECUATORIAL COLOMBIANO

Se estudió la clasificación trófica y la cinética temporal de las razones P/B, P/R, PPN/PPB y R/B en la zona de represa del embalse Riogrande II (06º35\u27--06º28\u27N, 75º32\u27--75º25\u27O). Se midieron la producción primaria bruta (PPB) y la neta (PPN) y la respiración (R) en cinco profundidades dentro de la zona fótica. Los muestreos se realizaron cada mes, entre julio 2002 y junio 2003. La biomasa fitoplantónica (B) se cuantificó en muestras integradas dentro de la zona fótica. A partir de los valores máximos de los perfiles de PPB y R se establecieron los coeficientes fotosintéticos (PPBmáx/B) y metabólico (Rmáx/B), y la razón PPBmáx/Rmáx. La razón entre los valores medios de PPN y PPB muestra que PPN fue 5,2 veces PPB, lo que denota mayor R. Estas consideraciones implican que: 1) la estructura de biomasa presente se mantiene dada la neguentropía relativamente alta; y 2) metabólicamente, el sistema en la zona de represa es más autotrófico que heterotrófico, comportándose como un sumidero de carbono; por ello, parte de la biomasa no se respira, lo que implica que hay PPN disponible en el embalse. El coeficiente metabólico osciló alrededor de la unidad, confirmando la relativa estabilidad del ensamblaje fitoplanctónico, con algunos periodos catabólicos, pero primando los de carácter anabólico, lo que efectivamente convierte el sistema en un sumidero de Carbono capaz de mantenerse en condición estable y resistente a los aportes entrópicos.  La razón P/R, con un valor medio de 1,61, muestra claramente un desbalance entre el material producido y el eliminado o consumido por R. Considerando la concentración de B fitoplanctónica (17,1 À 11,7 mgCl.a.m-3), la represa del cuerpo de agua investigado es eutrófica. Los valores medios del coeficiente de asimilación confirman esta condición.TROPHIC CLASSIFICATION AND TEMPORAL KINETICS OF Production and conumption IN THE PHOTIC LAYER OF the DAM ZONE IN AN EQUATORIAL COLOMBIAN RESERVOIR. We have studied the kinetic temporal and trophic classification of P/B, P/R, NPP/GPP, and R/B ratios in the dam zone of Riogrande II reservoir II (06º35\u2757”-- 06º28\u2779”N, 75º32\u2717”--75º25\u2785”O). We measured gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary production and respiration (R) at five depths within the photic zone. Samples were taken every month between July 2002 and June 2003. Phytoplankton biomass (B) was quantified in samples integrated within the photic zone. From the maximum values of GPP and R profiles, photosynthetic coefficient (GPPmax/B), GPPmax/Rmax ratio and metabolic coefficient (Rmax/B) were established. The ratio between the mean values of NPP and GPP shows that NPP was 5.2 times GPP, reflecting higher R. These considerations imply that: 1) the structure of biomass present remains due to the neguentropy relatively high; and 2) metabolically, the system in the dam zone is more autotrophic than heterotrophic, behaving as a carbon sink; therefore, part of the biomass is not breathed implying that there is available PPN. The metabolic coefficient ranged around the unit, confirming the relative stability of the phytoplankton assemblage, with some catabolic periods, but prioritizing the anabolic character, which effectively present the system as a carbon sink capable to maintain a stable condition and resistant to entropic contributions. P/R ratio, with an average value of 1.61, shows clearly an imbalance between the produced material and the removed or consumed by R. Considering the concentration of phytoplankton biomass (17.1 À 11.7 mgCl.a.m-3), the dam zone of the investigated water body is eutrophic. The mean value of photosynthetic coefficient confirms this condition