Predictive Non-equilibrium Social Science

Non-Equilibrium Social Science (NESS) emphasizes dynamical phenomena, for instance the way political movements emerge or competing organizations interact. This paper argues that predictive analysis is an essential element of NESS, occupying a central role in its scientific inquiry and representing a key activity of practitioners in domains such as economics, public policy, and national security. We begin by clarifying the distinction between models which are useful for prediction and the much more common explanatory models studied in the social sciences. We then investigate a challenging real-world predictive analysis case study, and find evidence that the poor performance of standard prediction methods does not indicate an absence of human predictability but instead reflects (1.) incorrect assumptions concerning the predictive utility of explanatory models, (2.) misunderstanding regarding which features of social dynamics actually possess predictive power, and (3.) practical difficulties exploiting predictive representations.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1212.680

Parents’ Perspectives on Shared Decision Making for Children With Solid Organ Transplants

Introduction The Institute of Medicine prioritizes active family and clinician participation in treatment decisions, known as shared decision making (SDM). In this article we report the decision-making experiences for parents of children who had a solid organ transplant. Method We performed a prospective longitudinal mixed methods study at five major U.S. children\u27s medical centers. Qualitative interview data were obtained at 3 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months after hospital discharge following the child\u27s transplant. Results Forty-eight parents participated in the study. Three themes were identified: (a) Parents expect to participate in SDM; (b) parents seek information to support their participation in SDM; and (c) attributes of providers\u27 professional practice facilitates SDM. SDM was facilitated when providers were knowledgeable, transparent, approachable, accessible, dependable, and supportive. Conclusions Parents expect to participate in SDM with their transplant team. Health care providers can intentionally use the six key attributes to engage parents in SDM. The results provide a framework to consider enhancing SDM in other chronic illness populations

Review of: From Private To Public: Natural Collections And Museums by Marco Beretta

The article reviews the book From Private to Public: Natural Collections and Museums, edited by Marco Beretta

Unfortunate Emigrants

The story of the Donner Party remains one of the most tragic and compelling in pioneer history. Johnson gathers many rare early narratives detailing the participants\u27 trying experiences into one of the most accurate accounts to date of this disastrous event.https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/usupress_pubs/1099/thumbnail.jp

Procedural Integrity: A Study of Implementing Integrity Utilizing Fidelity Checks and Performance Feedback

This action research study examined the experiences of professional and support staff at a suburban Philadelphia school district regarding the increased frequency of fidelity checks for behavior protocols. Based on interview data, all participants reported positive experiences throughout this action research study. All participants contributed to the two actions that took place during the action research study. These two actions comprised the implementation of biweekly team meetings and the development of Google Drive folders for students. The relationship between frequency of fidelity checks of behavior protocols and accuracy of intervention implementation was also examined. The data supported the notion: The more fidelity checks provided to staff, the more accurate their protocol implementation. The relationship between frequency of fidelity checks of behavior protocols and problem behavior showed that all three students decreased their problem behavior throughout the course of this study. The relationship between frequency of fidelity checks of behavior protocols and skill acquisition showed that all three students increased their overall skill acquisition. This action research study demonstrated significant benefits to the use of fidelity check. While further research may assess specific intervals at which these fidelity checks are needed for ongoing supervision, the results of this action research study are clear: Increased frequency of fidelity checks results in positive experiences for staff, more accurate implementation of protocols, reduced problem behavior, and higher skill acquisition of students with special needs

Review of: All Creatures: Naturalists, Collectors, And Biodiversity, 1850-1950 by Robert E. Kohler

The article reviews the book All Creatures: Naturalists, Collectors, and Biodiversity, 1850-1950, by Robert E. Kohler

Review of: Trying Leviathan: The Nineteenth-Century New York Court Case that Put the Whale on Trial and Challenged the Order of Nature by D. Graham Burnett

The article reviews the book Trying Leviathan: The Nineteenth-Century New York Court Case that Put the Whale on Trial and Challenged the Order of Nature, by D. Graham Burnett