Assessment of Atlantic Red Drum for 1999: Northern and southern regions

An assessment of the status of the Atlantic stock of red drum is conducted using recreational and commercial data from 1986 through 1998. This assessment updates data and analyses from the 1989, 1991, 1992 and 1995 stock assessments on Atlantic coast red drum (Vaughan and Helser, 1990; Vaughan 1992; 1993; 1996). Since 1981, coastwide recreational catches ranged between 762,300 pounds in 1980 and 2,623,900 pounds in 1984, while commercial landings ranged between 60,900 pounds in 1997 and 422,500 pounds in 1984. In weight of fish caught, Atlantic red drum constitute predominantly a recreational fishery (ranging between 85 and 95% during the 1990s). Commercially, red drum continue to be harvested as part of mixed species fisheries. Using available length-frequency distributions and age-length keys, recreational and commercial catches are converted to catch in numbers at age. Separable and tuned virtual population analyses are conducted on the catch in numbers at age to obtain estimates of fishing mortality rates and population size (including recruitment to age 1). In tum, these estimates of fishing mortality rates combined with estimates of growth (length and weight), sex ratios, sexual maturity and fecundity are used to estimate yield per recruit, escapement to age 4, and static (or equilibrium) spawning potential ratio (static SPR, based on both female biomass and egg production). Three virtual analysis approaches (separable, spreadsheet, and FADAPT) were applied to catch matrices for two time periods (early: 1986-1991, and late: 1992-1998) and two regions (Northern: North Carolina and north, and Southern: South Carolina through east coast of Florida). Additional catch matrices were developed based on different treatments for the catch-and-release recreationally-caught red drum (B2-type). These approaches included assuming 0% mortality (BASEO) versus 10% mortality for B2 fish. For the 10% mortality on B2 fish, sizes were assumed the same as caught fish (BASEl), or positive difference in size distribution between the early period and the later period (DELTA), or intermediate (PROP). Hence, a total of 8 catch matrices were developed (2 regions, and 4 B2 assumptions for 1986-1998) to which the three VPA approaches were applied. The question of when offshore emigration or reduced availability begins (during or after age 3) continues to be a source of bias that tends to result in overestimates of fishing mortality. Additionally, the continued assumption (Vaughan and Helser, 1990; Vaughan 1992; 1993; 1996) of no fishing mortality on adults (ages 6 and older), causes a bias that results in underestimates of fishing mortality for adult ages (0 versus some positive value). Because of emigration and the effect of the slot limit for the later period, a range in relative exploitations of age 3 to age 2 red drum was considered. Tuning indices were developed from the MRFSS, and state indices for use in the spreadsheet and FADAPT VPAs. The SAFMC Red Drum Assessment Group (Appendix A) favored the FADAPT approach with catch matrix based on DELTA and a selectivity for age 3 relative to age 2 of 0.70 for the northern region and 0.87 for the southern region. In the northern region, estimates of static SPR increased from about 1.3% for the period 1987-1991 to approximately 18% (15% and 20%) for the period 1992-1998. For the southern region, estimates of static SPR increased from about 0.5% for the period 1988-1991 to approximately 15% for the period 1992-1998. Population models used in this assessment (specifically yield per recruit and static spawning potential ratio) are based on equilibrium assumptions: because no direct estimates are available as to the current status of the adult stock, model results imply potential longer term, equilibrium effects. Because current status of the adult stock is unknown, a specific rebuilding schedule cannot be determined. However, the duration of a rebuilding schedule should reflect, in part, a measure of the generation time of the fish species under consideration. For a long-lived, but relatively early spawning, species as red drum, mean generation time would be on the order of 15 to 20 years based on age-specific egg production. Maximum age is 50 to 60 years for the northern region, and about 40 years for the southern region. The ASMFC Red Drum Board's first phase recovery goal of increasing %SPR to at least 10% appears to have been met. (PDF contains 79 pages

Bag and size limit analyses for red drum in Northern and Southern Regions of the U.S. Atlantic

Assessments of the Atlantic red drum for the northern (North Carolina and north) and southern (South Carolina through east coast of Florida) regions along the U. S. Atlantic coast were recently completed. The joint Red Drum Technical Committee (SAFMC/ASMFC) selected the most appropriate catch matrix (incorporating an assumption on size of recreationally-released fish), selectivity of age 3 relative to age 2, and virtual population analysis (FADAPT). Given gear- and age-specific estimates of fishing mortality (F) for the 1992-1998 period, analyses were made of potential gains in escapement through age 4 and static spawning potential ratio (SPR) from further reductions in fishing mortality due to changes in slot and bag limits. Savings from bag limits were calculated given a particular slot size for the recreational fishery, with no savings for the commercial fisheries in the northern region due to their being managed primarily through a quota. Relative changes in catch-at-age estimates were used to adjust age-specific F and hence calculated escapement through age 4 and static SPR. Adjustment was made with the recreational savings to account for release mortality (10%, as in the stock assessment). Alternate runs for the northern region commercial fishery considered 25% release mortality for lengths outside the slot (instead of 0% for the base run), and 0% vs. 10% gain or loss across legal sizes in F. These results are summarized for ranges of bag limits with increasing minimum size limit (for fixed maximum size), and with decreasing maximum size limit (for fixed minimum size limit). For the southern region, a bag limit of one-fish per angler trip would be required to attain the stated target of 40% static SPR if the current slot limit were not changed. However, for the northern region, a bag limit of one-fish per angler trip appears to be insufficient to attain the stated target of 40% static SPR while maintaining the current slot limit. (PDF contains 41 pages

Memories and Reflections on the Dieppe Raid of 19 August 1942

Editor’s Note: John S. Edmondson was born in Estevan, Saskatchewan in 1919. He joined the Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light Infantry in 1938, and then served with the South Saskatchewan Regiment during the Second World War in the Defence of England, on the Dieppe Raid and in the Normandy Campaign until wounded during the capture of Falaise. After the war, he was transferred to the Black Watch (RHR) Regiment of Canada. He served in Canada in many roles, and as an exchange officer with the British 4th Division in West Germany as part of NATO. In addition, he served with the UN Military Observer Group in Kashmir, India and Pakistan. He served until reaching the mandatory retirement age in 1971. John, with the assistance of his son Doug, wrote this account of his experiences at Pourville in 1993, revising it in 2003

The GZK Bound and Strong Neutrino-Nucleon Interactions above 10^19eV: a Progress Report

Cosmic ray events above 10^19 eV have posed a fundamental problem for more than thirty years. Recent measurements indicate that these events do not show the features predicted by the GZK bound. The events may, in addition, display angular correlations with point sources. If these observations are confirmed for point sources further than 50 - 100 Mpc, then strong interactions for the neutrino are indicated. Recent work on extra spatial dimensions provides a context for massive spin-2 exchanges capable of generating cross sections in the 1 - 100 mb range, as indicated by data. Applications of extra-dimension physics are controversial, and we comment on several contentious issues.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure; talk by JPR at 7th Conference on the Intersections of Particle and Nuclear Physics, Quebec City, May, 200

Estate Taxes, Life Insurance, and Small Business

One criticism of the estate tax is that it prevents the owners of family businesses from passing their enterprises to their children. The problem is that it may be difficult to pay estate taxes without liquidating the business. A natural question is why individuals with such concerns do not purchase enough life insurance to meet their estate tax liabilities. This paper examines whether and how people use life insurance to deal with the estate tax. We find that, other things being the same, business owners purchase more life insurance than other individuals. However, on the margin, their insurance purchases are less responsive to estate tax considerations and they are less likely to have the wherewithal to meet estate tax liabilities out of liquid assets plus insurance.

Health Insurance and the Supply of Entrepreneurs

Some commentators have suggested that the absence of portable health insurance impedes people from leaving their jobs to start new firms. We investigate this belief by comparing wage-earners who become self-employed during a given period of time with their counterparts who do not. By examining the impact of variables relating to the health insurance and health status of these workers and their families, we can infer whether the lack of health insurance portability affects the probability that they become self-employed. The evidence does not support the conjecture that the current health insurance system affects the propensity to become self-employed. Hence, whatever its other merits, there is no reason to believe that the introduction of universal health insurance would significantly enhance entrepreneurial activity.

Short-Term Plasticity in a Computational Model of the Tail-Withdrawal Circuit in Aplysia.

The tail-withdrawal circuit of Aplysia provides a useful model system for investigating synaptic dynamics. Sensory neurons within the circuit manifest several forms of synaptic plasticity. Here, we developed a model of the circuit and investigated the ways in which depression (DEP) and potentiation (POT) contributed to information processing. DEP limited the amount of motor neuron activity that could be elicited by the monosynaptic pathway alone. POT within the monosynaptic pathway did not compensate for DEP. There was, however, a synergistic interaction between POT and the polysynaptic pathway. This synergism extended the dynamic range of the network, and the interplay between DEP and POT made the circuit responded preferentially to long-duration, low-frequency inputs

Moment tensor inversions of icequakes on Gornergletscher, Switzerland

We have determined seismic source mechanisms for shallow and intermediate-depth icequake clusters recorded on the glacier Gornergletscher, Switzerland, during the summers of 2004 and 2006. The selected seismic events are part of a large data set of over 80,000 seismic events acquired with a dense seismic network deployed in order to study the yearly rapid drainage of Gornersee lake, a nearby ice-marginal lake. Using simple frequency and distance scaling and Green’s functions for a homogeneous half-space, we calculated moment tensor solutions for icequakes with M_w-1.5 using a full-waveform inversion method usually applied to moderate seismic events (M_w>4) recorded at local to regional distances (≈50–700 km). Inversions from typical shallow events are shown to represent tensile crack openings. This explains well the dominating Rayleigh waves and compressive first motions observed at all recording seismograms. As these characteristics can be observed in most icequake signals, we believe that the vast majority of icequakes recorded in the 2 yr is due to tensile faulting, most likely caused by surface crevasse openings. We also identified a shallow cluster with somewhat atypical waveforms in that they show less dominant Rayleigh waves and quadrantal radiation patterns of first motions. Their moment tensors are dominated by a large double-couple component, which is strong evidence for shear faulting. Although less than a dozen such icequakes have been identified, this is a substantial result as it shows that shear faulting in glacier ice is generally possible even in the absence of extreme flow changes such as during glacier surges. A third source of icequakes was located at 100 m depth. These sources can be represented by tensile crack openings. Because of the high-hydrostatic pressure within the ice at these depths, these events are most likely related to the presence of water lenses that reduce the effective stress to allow for tensile faulting