Design degrees of freedom and mechanisms for complexity

We develop a discrete spectrum of percolation forest fire models characterized by increasing design degrees of freedom (DDOF’s). The DDOF’s are tuned to optimize the yield of trees after a single spark. In the limit of a single DDOF, the model is tuned to the critical density. Additional DDOF’s allow for increasingly refined spatial patterns, associated with the cellular structures seen in highly optimized tolerance (HOT). The spectrum of models provides a clear illustration of the contrast between criticality and HOT, as well as a concrete quantitative example of how a sequence of robustness tradeoffs naturally arises when increasingly complex systems are developed through additional layers of design. Such tradeoffs are familiar in engineering and biology and are a central aspect of the complex systems that can be characterized as HOT

ARTMAP: Supervised Real-Time Learning and Classification of Nonstationary Data by a Self-Organizing Neural Network

This article introduces a new neural network architecture, called ARTMAP, that autonomously learns to classify arbitrarily many, arbitrarily ordered vectors into recognition categories based on predictive success. This supervised learning system is built up from a pair of Adaptive Resonance Theory modules (ARTa and ARTb) that are capable of self-organizing stable recognition categories in response to arbitrary sequences of input patterns. During training trials, the ARTa module receives a stream {a^(p)} of input patterns, and ARTb receives a stream {b^(p)} of input patterns, where b^(p) is the correct prediction given a^(p). These ART modules are linked by an associative learning network and an internal controller that ensures autonomous system operation in real time. During test trials, the remaining patterns a^(p) are presented without b^(p), and their predictions at ARTb are compared with b^(p). Tested on a benchmark machine learning database in both on-line and off-line simulations, the ARTMAP system learns orders of magnitude more quickly, efficiently, and accurately than alternative algorithms, and achieves 100% accuracy after training on less than half the input patterns in the database. It achieves these properties by using an internal controller that conjointly maximizes predictive generalization and minimizes predictive error by linking predictive success to category size on a trial-by-trial basis, using only local operations. This computation increases the vigilance parameter ρa of ARTa by the minimal amount needed to correct a predictive error at ARTb· Parameter ρa calibrates the minimum confidence that ARTa must have in a category, or hypothesis, activated by an input a^(p) in order for ARTa to accept that category, rather than search for a better one through an automatically controlled process of hypothesis testing. Parameter ρa is compared with the degree of match between a^(p) and the top-down learned expectation, or prototype, that is read-out subsequent to activation of an ARTa category. Search occurs if the degree of match is less than ρa. ARTMAP is hereby a type of self-organizing expert system that calibrates the selectivity of its hypotheses based upon predictive success. As a result, rare but important events can be quickly and sharply distinguished even if they are similar to frequent events with different consequences. Between input trials ρa relaxes to a baseline vigilance pa When ρa is large, the system runs in a conservative mode, wherein predictions are made only if the system is confident of the outcome. Very few false-alarm errors then occur at any stage of learning, yet the system reaches asymptote with no loss of speed. Because ARTMAP learning is self stabilizing, it can continue learning one or more databases, without degrading its corpus of memories, until its full memory capacity is utilized.British Petroleum (98-A-1204); Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (90-0083, 90-0175, 90-0128); National Science Foundation (IRI-90-00539); Army Research Office (DAAL-03-88-K0088

One year of monitoring the Vela pulsar using a Phased Array Feed

We have observed the Vela pulsar for one year using a Phased Array Feed (PAF) receiver on the 12-metre antenna of the Parkes Test-Bed Facility. These observations have allowed us to investigate the stability of the PAF beam-weights over time, to demonstrate that pulsars can be timed over long periods using PAF technology and to detect and study the most recent glitch event that occurred on 12 December 2016. The beam-weights are shown to be stable to 1% on time scales on the order of three weeks. We discuss the implications of this for monitoring pulsars using PAFs on single dish telescopes.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in PAS

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL WATER ALLOCATION IN THE KISSIMMEE RIVER BASIN

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Subexponential solutions of scalar linear integro-differential equations with delay

This paper considers the asymptotic behaviour of solutions of the scalar linear convolution integro-differential equation with delay x0(t) = − n Xi=1 aix(t − i) + Z t 0 k(t − s)x(s) ds, t > 0, x(t) = (t), − t 0, where = max1in i. In this problem, k is a non-negative function in L1(0,1)\C[0,1), i 0, ai > 0 and is a continuous function on [−, 0]. The kernel k is subexponential in the sense that limt!1 k(t)(t)−1 > 0 where is a positive subexponential function. A consequence of this is that k(t)et ! 1 as t ! 1 for every > 0

Fuzzy ARTMAP, Slow Learning and Probability Estimation

A nonparametric probability estimation procedure using the fuzzy ARTMAP neural network is here described. Because the procedure does not make a priori assumptions about underlying probability distributions, it yields accurate estimates on a wide variety of prediction tasks. Fuzzy ARTMAP is used to perform probability estimation in two different modes. In a 'slow-learning' mode, input-output associations change slowly, with the strength of each association computing a conditional probability estimate. In 'max-nodes' mode, a fixed number of categories are coded during an initial fast learning interval, and weights are then tuned by slow learning. Simulations illustrate system performance on tasks in which various numbers of clusters in the set of input vectors mapped to a given class.British Petroleum (89-A-1204); Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (AFOSR-90-0083, ONR-N00014-92-J-4015); National Science Foundation (IRI-90-00530); Office of Naval Research (N00014-91-J-4100); Air Force Office of Scientific Research (90-1075