Predicting the UK Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios: An Out-Of-Sample Recursive Residuals Graphical Approach

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the ability of dividend ratios to predict the UK equity premium. Specifically, we apply the Goyal and Welch (2003) methodology to equity premia derived from the UK FTSE All-Share index. This approach provides a powerful graphical diagnostic for predictive ability. Preliminary in-sample univariate regressions reveal that the UK equity premium contains an element of predictability. Moreover, out-of-sample the considered models outperform the historical moving average. In contrast to similar work on the US, the graphical diagnostic then indicates that dividend ratios are useful predictors of excess returns. Finally, Campbell and Shiller (1988) identities are employed to account for the time-varying properties of the dividend yield and dividend growth processes. It is shown that by instrumenting the models with the identities, forecasting ability can be improved.

Behavior of heuristics and state space structure near SAT/UNSAT transition

We study the behavior of ASAT, a heuristic for solving satisfiability problems by stochastic local search near the SAT/UNSAT transition. The heuristic is focused, i.e. only variables in unsatisfied clauses are updated in each step, and is significantly simpler, while similar to, walksat or Focused Metropolis Search. We show that ASAT solves instances as large as one million variables in linear time, on average, up to 4.21 clauses per variable for random 3SAT. For K higher than 3, ASAT appears to solve instances at the ``FRSB threshold'' in linear time, up to K=7.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, longer version available as MSc thesis of first author at http://biophys.physics.kth.se/docs/ardelius_thesis.pd

Endocrine tumors of the gastrointestinal tract and pancreas:grading, tumor size and proliferation index do not predict malignant behavior

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Context</p> <p>Gastrointestinal and pancreatic (GIP) endocrine tumors (ETs) have been regarded as slow growing neoplasms with distinct morphologic characteristics that behave less aggressively than carcinomas. The malignant potential of these tumors is difficult to predict.</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>To evaluate prognostic parameters, namely tumor size, tumor grade, and Ki-67 index in relationship to metastatic behavior of GIP ETs.</p> <p>Design</p> <p>Biopsies and surgical specimens from 38 patients with GIP ETs were selected. The study group comprised 16 males and 22 females (mean age 62.6 years; range 24–91). Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue sections were stained with H&E, synaptophysin, chromogranin A, and Ki-67. Ki-67 index was evaluated using ChromaVision Automated Assisted Image Analysis software. Proliferative index was compared to tumor grade, and the degree of associations between tumor size, tumor grade, Ki-67 index and metastatic behavior of GIP ETs were evaluated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Fifteen of the twenty-two (68.18%) surgically staged neoplasms presented with peritoneal dissemination, lymphogeneous, and/or hematogeneous metastases. Nine of the metastatic tumors were G1 (9/13, or 69.23%), 5 were G2 (5/7, or 71.42%), and 1 – G3 (1/2, or 50%). Overall, 10/15 (66.66%) metastatic tumors showed < 2% Ki-67 immunoreactivity. Four ileal ETs had a synchronous malignancy. No significant correlation was found to exist between tumor grade and Ki-67 index as well as between tumor size, tumor grade, Ki-67 index and metastatic behavior.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The findings suggest that tumor size, tumor grade and Ki-67 index do not accurately predict malignant behavior of GIP ETs.</p

Augmented paper maps : design of POI markers and effects on group navigation

One popular and wide use of augmented-reality based application, is the projection of points of interests on top of the phones' camera view. In this paper we discuss the implementation of an AR application that acts as a magic lens over printed maps, overlaying POIs and routes. This method expands the information space available to members of groups during navigation, partially mitigating the issue of several group members trying to share a small screen device. We examine two aspects critical to the use of augmented paper maps: (a) Appropriate visualisation of POIs to facilitate selection and (b) augmentation of paper maps with route instructions for use in group situations. In this paper, we evaluate POI visualisation in a lab setting and augmented paper map navigation with groups of real tourists in a preliminary field trial. Our work complements existing literature introducing self-reporting questionnaires to measure affective state and user experience during navigation

The effectiveness of the antegrade reamed technique: the experience and complications from 415 traumatic femoral shaft fractures

This retrospective study presents the experience gained through use of reamed femoral nails and reports results and respective complications. This study included 415 femur fractures (312 men and 101 women with a mean age of 27.8 years) that were treated from 1993 to 2004. The fractures were classified according to AO, and 74 open fractures were included and typed according to the Gustilo classification. Dynamic nailing was performed for nearly all type A fractures and static nailing for types B and C. After a mean follow-up of 1.5 years, union rate was 97.8%. The complications were: 9 non-unions, 14 delayed-unions, 4 torsional malunions, 6 limb length discrepancies (shortening) and 30 nerve pareses due to traction. Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) occurred below the knee in 4 patients, while there were recorded 3 pulmonary and 2 fat embolisms, 1 superficial and 1 deep infection. There were 28 broken screws identified postoperatively. Logistic regression analysis revealed that type B and C were associated with increased risk of complications, with respective odds ratios of 3.1 (95% CI = 1.3–7.2, P = 0.011) and 4.3 (95% CI = 1.8–10.3, P = 0.001) when compared to type A patterns. All patients returned to their activities in a mean time of 10 months. Intramedullary nailing is still the treatment of choice for femoral shaft fractures, but knowledge of potential complications and their association with certain fracture patterns is needed

Oral Inflammatory Myofibroblastic Tumor: Case Report and Review of Literature

Inflammatory myofibroblastic tumor (IMT) is a rarely described tumor of unknown etiology and pathogenesis. It occurs primarily in the lungs, but has occurred in other extra-pulmonary sites. Histologically these lesions appear as an inflammatory infiltrate within a variably myofibrotic background. Current evidence shows that inflammatory myofibroblastic tumors are neoplastic processes resulting from chromosomal translocations that often cause an overexpression of ALK kinase, which is often assessed using immunohistochemical studies. Currently, the biological behavior of oral inflammatory myofibroblastic tumor is still uncertain. This article describes the clinical, histological, and operative features of a case of IMT of the oral cavity

Interactions of Trivalent Lanthanide Cations with a New Hexadentate Di-Schiff Base: New Lanthanide(III) Complexes from (NE,N′E)-2,2′-(ethane-1,2-diylbis(oxy))bis(N-(pyridin-2-ylmethylene)ethanamine)

The novel lanthanide(III) complexes [Ln(NO3)2L](NO3)·3MeOH (Ln = La 1, Pr 2) and [Ln(NO3)3L](NO3)·2MeOH (Ln = Gd 3, Yb 4), where L = (NE,N′E)-2,2′-(ethane-1,2-diylbis(oxy))bis(N-(pyridin-2-ylmethylene)ethanamine), have been obtained by direct reaction of the Schiff base ligand and the corresponding hydrated lanthanide(III) nitrates in methanol. All complexes were characterized spectroscopically and thermogravimetrically. Complex 4 was also characterized with crystallographic studies: orthorhombic P212121, a = 10.6683(14), b = 13.4752(15), c = 19.3320(26) Å. In the molecular structure of 4, Yb(III) is surrounded by all donor atoms of the Schiff base (four nitrogen and two oxygen atoms) and four oxygen atoms belonging to two bidentate chelating nitrato ligands