The Long and the Short End of the Term Structure of Policy Rules

We first document a large secular shift in the estimated response of the entire term structure of interest rates to inflation and output in the United States. The shift occurred in the early 1980s. We then derive an equation that links these responses to the coefficients of the central bank's monetary policy rule for the short-term interest rate. The equation reveals two countervailing forces that help explain and understand the nature of the link and how its sign is determined. Using this equation, we show that a shift in the policy rule in the early 1980s provides an explanation for the observed shift in the term structure. We also explore a shift in the policy rule in the 2002-2005 period and its possible effect on long-term rates.

Overview and Illustration of Bayesian Confirmatory Factor Analysis with Ordinal Indicators

Although frequentist estimators can effectively fit ordinal confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) models, their assumptions are difficult to establish and estimation problems may prohibit their use at times. Consequently, researchers may want to also look to Bayesian analysis to fit their ordinal models. Bayesian methods offer researchers an effective means of estimating, testing, and interpreting ordinal CFA models. Unfortunately, there are few applied resources on the subject. The purpose of this article is to provide researchers with an introduction to the essential concepts, practice recommendations, and process of fitting ordinal CFA models using Bayesian analysis. Mplus 7.4 and data from the Pittsburg Common Cold Study 3 are used to example how researchers can set up their Bayesian models, conduct diagnostic checks, and interpret the results. This article also highlights the benefits and challenges of Bayesian ordinal CFA modeling. Accessed 1,146 times on https://pareonline.net from May 17, 2019 to December 31, 2019. For downloads from January 1, 2020 forward, please click on the PlumX Metrics link to the right

Inverse Scattering and Acousto-Optic Imaging

We propose a tomographic method to reconstruct the optical properties of a highly-scattering medium from incoherent acousto-optic measurements. The method is based on the solution to an inverse problem for the diffusion equation and makes use of the principle of interior control of boundary measurements by an external wave field.Comment: 10 page

THE VALUE OF SPORT FISHING IN THE SNAKE RIVER BASIN OF CENTRAL IDAHO

The value of sportfishing in the Snake River Basin in Central Idaho was measured using a two-stage/disequilibrium travel model. The two-stage/disequilibrium model does not require monetization of recreationists? travel time as required of traditional equilibrium labor market travel cost models. The model was estimated using Poisson regression, appropriate for count data when over-dispersion is absent, and adjusted for endogenous stratification (self selection bias) . Contrary to expectations that anglers living close to the sites with low values would be over represented in the sample, the endogenous stratification adjustment caused estimated consumers surplus to decline from $42 per person per trip before adjustment for endogenous stratification to$35 after adjustment. The average number of sportfishing trips per year was 6.72, resulting in an average annual willingness-to-pay of $236 per year per angler.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Measuring the Location Value of a Recreation Site

The demand for sport fishing on the Snake River reservoirs was estimated using the travel cost method. A short-run demand model was specified with location value for anglers who have the option to access a follow-on site if fishing conditions are poor. Willingness to pay for a fishing trip to the site was $18.52 for anglers who did not have a follow-on site and$43.48 for anglers who did. A location value of $24.96 accrued only to anglers with a follow-on site. Total annual site value was understated by as much as 40$0.78 million) if location value for anglers with a follow-on site was excluded from the benefit estimate.contingent behavior, count data, endogenous stratification, follow-on site, location value, multiple destination, option value, short-run demand, travel cost method, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Energy Dependence of Scattering Ground State Polar Molecules

We explore the total cross section of ground state polar molecules in an electric field at various energies, focusing on RbCs and RbK. An external electric field polarizes the molecules and induces strong dipolar interactions leading to non-zero partial waves contributing to the scattering even as the collision energy goes to zero. This results in the need to compute scattering problems with many different values of total M to converge the total cross section. An accurate and efficient approximate total cross section is introduced and used to study the low field temperature dependence. To understand the scattering of the polar molecules we compare a semi-classical cross section with quantum unitarity limit. This comparison leads to the ability to characterize the scattering based on the value of the electric field and the collision energy.Comment: Accepted PRA, 10 pages, 5 figure