How much new saving will kiwisaver produce?

After two decades of tax neutrality for private saving, New Zealand policy changed radically with the recent introduction of tax incentives for KiwiSaver. A key issue for tax-favoured saving schemes is the extent to which existing saving is reshuffled versus new saving created by reduced consumption. Using data from a nationwide survey carried out by the authors, we estimate that each dollar of KiwiSaver balances represents only $0.09-$0.19 of new saving. The rest is either reshuffling amongst existing saving and debt by KiwiSaver members, or else taxpayer and employer transfers which reduce national saving elsewhere. Homeowners are least likely to fund their KiwiSaver contributions by reducing spending, indicating possible mis-targeting since owners are often blamed for excessive consumption arising from house price wealth effects. There is little evidence that KiwiSaver affects either the reported trend in saving or the presence of dis-saving. Since only one-tenth of households report negative saving, KiwiSaver may be a costly and ineffective solution to a relatively small problem of insufficient household saving

CPI Bias and Real Living Standards in Russia During the Transition

http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40070/3/wp684.pd

Parametric Continuity of Stationary Distributions

The paper gives conditions under which stationary distributions of Markov models depend continuously on the parameters. It extends a well-known parametric continuity theorem for compact state space to the unbounded setting of standard econometrics and time series analysis. Applications to several theoretical and estimation problems are outlined.Parametric, Continuity, Stationary Distributions

Equivalent Conditions for Irreducibility of Discrete Time Markov Chains

We consider discrete time Markov chains on general state space. It is shown that a certain property referred to here as nondecomposability is equivalent to irreducibility, and that a Markov chain with invariant distribution is irreducible if and only if the invariant distribution is unique and assigns positive probability to all absorbing sets.

Parametric continuity of stationary distributions

For Markovian economic models, long-run equilibria are typically identified with the stationary (invariant) distributions generated by the model. In this paper weprovide new sufficient conditions for continuity in the map from parameters to these equilibria. Several existing results are shown to be special cases of our theorem.Markov processes, stochastic dynamics, parametric continuity

The distributional impact of KiwiSaver incentives

New Zealand’s approach to retirement incomes profoundly changed with the recent introduction of KiwiSaver and its associated tax incentives. Previous policy reduced lifetime inequality but KiwiSaver and its tax incentives will increase future inequality and lead to diverging living standards for the elderly. In this paper we evaluate the distributional effects of these tax incentives. Using data from a nationwide survey conducted by the authors, we estimate the value of the equivalent income transfer provided to individuals by the tax incentives for KiwiSaver participation. Concentration curves and inequality decompositions are used to compare the distributive impact of these tax incentives with those for New Zealand Superannuation. Estimates are reported for both initial and lifetime impacts, with the greatest effect on inequality apparent in the lifetime impacts

Parametric Continuity of Stationary Distributions

For Markovian economic models, long-run equilibria are typically identified with the stationary (invariant) distributions generated by the model. In this paper we provide new sufficient conditions for continuity in the map from parameters to these equilibria. Several existing results are shown to be special cases of our theorem.Markov processes, parametric continuity.