An Empirical Real-Time Test for Takeoff with Applications to Cellular Telephony

No methodology exists to aid the manager in empirically identifying a takeoff event in a real-time. This paper addresses this problem by developing generally applicable, simple and empirical tests for the determination of the takeoff point of a growth curve. The tests are applied to the adoption of wireless cellular telephony across 40 countries. The tests are shown to provide useful insight into the temporal development and dissemination of this technology.