Stock mechanics: predicting recession in S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ

An original method, assuming potential and kinetic energy for prices and conservation of their sum is developed for forecasting exchanges. Connections with power law are shown. Semiempirical applications on S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ predict a coming recession in them. An emerging market, Istanbul Stock Exchange index ISE-100 is found involving a potential to continue to rise.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure

Diversity of flux avalanche patterns in superconducting films

The variety of morphologies in flux patterns created by thermomagnetic dendritic avalanches in type-II superconducting films is investigated using numerical simulations. The avalanches are triggered by introducing a hot spot at the edge of a strip-shaped sample, which is initially prepared in a partially penetrated Bean critical state by slowly ramping the transversely applied magnetic field. The simulation scheme is based on a model accounting for the nonlinear and nonlocal electrodynamics of superconductors in the transverse geometry. By systematically varying the parameters representing the Joule heating, heat conduction in the film, and heat transfer to the substrate, a wide variety of avalanche patterns is formed, and quantitative characterization of areal extension, branch width etc. is made. The results show that branching is suppressed by the lateral heat diffusion, while large Joule heating gives many branches, and heat removal into the substrate limits the areal size. The morphology shows significant dependence also on the initial flux penetration depth.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figure

Log-periodic route to fractal functions

Log-periodic oscillations have been found to decorate the usual power law behavior found to describe the approach to a critical point, when the continuous scale-invariance symmetry is partially broken into a discrete-scale invariance (DSI) symmetry. We classify the `Weierstrass-type'' solutions of the renormalization group equation F(x)= g(x)+(1/m)F(g x) into two classes characterized by the amplitudes A(n) of the power law series expansion. These two classes are separated by a novel ``critical'' point. Growth processes (DLA), rupture, earthquake and financial crashes seem to be characterized by oscillatory or bounded regular microscopic functions g(x) that lead to a slow power law decay of A(n), giving strong log-periodic amplitudes. In contrast, the regular function g(x) of statistical physics models with ``ferromagnetic''-type interactions at equibrium involves unbound logarithms of polynomials of the control variable that lead to a fast exponential decay of A(n) giving weak log-periodic amplitudes and smoothed observables. These two classes of behavior can be traced back to the existence or abscence of ``antiferromagnetic'' or ``dipolar''-type interactions which, when present, make the Green functions non-monotonous oscillatory and favor spatial modulated patterns.Comment: Latex document of 29 pages + 20 ps figures, addition of a new demonstration of the source of strong log-periodicity and of a justification of the general offered classification, update of reference lis

Dramatic role of critical current anisotropy on flux avalanches in MgB2 films

Anisotropic penetration of magnetic flux in MgB2 films grown on vicinal sapphire substrates is investigated using magneto-optical imaging. Regular penetration above 10 K proceeds more easily along the substrate surface steps, anisotropy of the critical current being 6%. At lower temperatures the penetration occurs via abrupt dendritic avalanches that preferentially propagate {\em perpendicular} to the surface steps. This inverse anisotropy in the penetration pattern becomes dramatic very close to 10 K where all flux avalanches propagate in the strongest-pinning direction. The observed behavior is fully explained using a thermomagnetic model of the dendritic instability.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure