Uncertainty and error associated with MHC predictions.

<p>These maps show the spatial uncertainty (i.e., standard error) and spatial errors (i.e., difference between observed and predicted values) associated with <i>Montipora</i>, <i>Leptoseris</i> and <i>Porites</i> spatial predictions averaged across the 10 model replicates. Errors were divided into classes based on the MAE, and summarized by ROV transect for display purposes. Each +/- symbol on the map denotes the mean error along a single ROV transect.</p

Study area.

<p>This map shows the study site offshore of Maui, Hawai‘i.</p

Jackknife analysis.

<p>Jacknife analysis for <i>Montipora</i>, <i>Leptoseris</i> and <i>Porites</i> showing the mean AUC when a single variable is used to develop a model (red, brown and green bars) or excluded from the modeling process (gray bars). This process of inclusion and exclusion isolates the contribution of each predictor variable from the other variables, and describes whether a particular variable improves or degrades the performance of a model. The AUC value for a single variable model is depicted inside the bars. The error bars denote one standard error (based on 10 model iterations).</p

Diagram of modeling process.

<p>Steps used to develop MaxEnt models and spatial predictions for <i>Montipora</i>, <i>Leptoseris</i> and <i>Porites</i>.</p

Observed and predicted MHC distributions.

<p>The maps on the left show the location of <i>Montipora</i>, <i>Leptoseris</i> and <i>Porites</i> corals, and the maps on the right show the predicted distributions of <i>Montipora</i>, <i>Leptoseris</i> and <i>Porites</i> habitats. These predicted distributions were created by spatially averaging the 10 model replicates for each genus.</p

Kriging parameters.

<p>The input parameters used to develop 10x10 m surfaces for euphotic depth and sea surface temperature using ordinary kriging. These parameters minimized the root mean square error of the final surfaces.</p

Maps of environmental predictors.

<p>These maps show the 10x10 m predictors that were used to develop MaxEnt models and spatial predictions for Montipora, Leptoseris and Porites. Asterisks denote predictors that were included at multiple spatial scales. The red inset boxes show fine-scale detail for predictors that are difficult to see.</p

Test AUC values for <i>Montipora</i>, <i>Leptoseris</i> and <i>Porites</i>.

<p>Test AUC values computed by MaxEnt using the 50% out-of-bag presences and background points, and a separate AUC computation in R using true absences and the same 50% out-of-bag presences used by MaxEnt.</p

Primary anthropogenic drivers.

<p>Distributions of primary proximate anthropogenic drivers by island for the main Hawaiian Islands ordered from north to south. Box plots represent minimum, 1^st quartile, mean, 3^rd quartile, and maximum for each continuous driver, and categorical drivers (i.e. presence) are histograms of frequency of occurrence. Drivers include (A) total commercial catch for all gears combined (kg/ha), (B) total non-commercial catch for all gears combined (kg/ha), (C) sediment (Tons/yr/ha), (D) nitrogen flux from OSDS (g/day/km²), (E) invasive fish, (F) invasive algae, (G) habitat modification (proportion of reef area with presence), (H) new development (unitless).</p

Environmental drivers.

<p>Spatial distributions in key environmental drivers that influence coral reef ecosystems, including chlorophyll-<i>a</i> (mg m^-3), sea surface temperature (°C), wave power (kW m^-1), and irradiance (Einstein m^-2 d-¹) across the eight main Hawaiian Islands.</p