Earthquake Monitoring in Southern California for Seventy-Seven Years (1932–2008)

The Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) has produced the SCSN earthquake catalog from 1932 to the present, a period of more than 77 yrs. This catalog consists of phase picks, hypocenters, and magnitudes. We present the history of the SCSN and the evolution of the catalog, to facilitate user understanding of its limitations and strengths. Hypocenters and magnitudes have improved in quality with time, as the number of stations has increased gradually from 7 to ~400 and the data acquisition and measuring procedures have become more sophisticated. The magnitude of completeness (M_c) of the network has improved from M_c ~3.25 in the early years to M_c ~1.8 at present, or better in the most densely instrumented areas. Mainshock–aftershock and swarm sequences and scattered individual background earthquakes characterize the seismicity of more than 470,000 events. The earthquake frequency-size distribution has an average b-value of ~1.0, with M≥6.0 events occurring approximately every 3 yrs. The three largest earthquakes recorded were 1952 M_w 7.5 Kern County, 1992 M_w 7.3 Landers, and 1999 M_w 7.1 Hector Mine sequences, and the three most damaging earthquakes were the 1933 M_w 6.4 Long Beach, 1971 M_w 6.7 San Fernando, and 1994 M_w 6.7 Northridge earthquakes. All of these events ruptured slow-slipping faults, located away from the main plate boundary fault, the San Andreas fault. Their aftershock sequences constitute about a third of the events in the catalog. The fast slipping southern San Andreas fault is relatively quiet at the microseismic level and has not had an M>6 earthquake since 1932. In contrast, the slower San Jacinto fault has the highest level of seismicity, including several M>6 events. Thus, the spatial and temporal seismicity patterns exhibit a complex relationship with the plate tectonic crustal deformation

Lithosphere strain rate and stress field orientations near the Alpine arc in Switzerland

In this study we test whether principal components of the strain rate and stress tensors align within Switzerland. We find that 1) Helvetic Nappes line (HNL) is the relevant tectonic boundary to define different domains of crustal stress/surface strain rates orientations and 2) orientations of T- axes (of moment tensor solutions) and long-term asthenosphere cumulative finite strain (from SKS shear wave splitting) are consistent at the scale of the Alpine arc in Switzerland. At a more local scale, we find that seismic activity and surface deformation are in agreement but in three regions (Basel, Swiss Jura and Ticino); possibly because of the low levels of deformation and/or seismicity. In the Basel area, deep seismicity exists while surface deformation is absent. In the Ticino and the Swiss Jura, where seismic activity is close to absent, surface deformation is detected at a level of ~2 10E-8/yr (~6.3 10E-16/s)

Earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting as real-time hazard information to mitigate seismic risk at nuclear facilities

Based on our experience in the project REAKT, we present a methodological framework to evaluate the potential benefits and costs of using Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) for real-time mitigation of seismic risk at nuclear facilities. We focus on evaluating the reliability, significance and usefulness of the aforementioned real-time risk-mitigation tools and on the communication of real-time earthquake information to end-users. We find that EEW and OEF have significant potential for the reduction of seismic risk at nuclear plants, although much scientific research and testing is still necessary to optimise their operation for these sensitive and highly-regulated facilities. While our test bed was Switzerland, the methodology presented here is of general interest to the community of EEW researchers and end-users and its scope is significantly beyond its specific application within REAKT

Interseismic Deformation and Moment Deficit Along the Manila Subduction Zone and the Philippine Fault System

We examine interseismic coupling of the Manila subduction zone and fault activity in the Luzon area using a block model constrained by GPS data collected from 1998 to 2015. Estimated long-term slip rates along the Manila subduction zone show a gradual southward decrease from 90–100 mm/yr at the northwest tip of Luzon to 65–80 mm/yr at the southern portion of the Manila Trench. We provide two block models (models A and B) to illustrate possible realizations of coupling along the Manila Trench, which may be used to infer future earthquake rupture scenarios. Model A shows a low coupling ratio of 0.34 offshore western Luzon and continuous creeping on the plate interface at latitudes 18–19°N. Model B includes the North Luzon Trough Fault and shows prevalent coupling on the plate interface with a coupling ratio of 0.48. Both models fit GPS velocities well, although they have significantly different tectonic implications. The accumulated strain along the Manila subduction zone at latitudes 15–19°N could be balanced by earthquakes with composite magnitudes of Mw 8.8–9.2, assuming recurrence intervals of 500–1000 years. GPS observations are consistent with full locking of the majority of active faults in Luzon to a depth of 20 km. Inferred moments of large inland earthquakes in Luzon fall in the range of Mw 6.9–7.6 assuming a recurrence interval of 100 years

The 2013 European seismic hazard model : key components and results

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE, 2009–2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the “Global Earthquake Model” initiative. It might serve as a reference model for various applications, from earthquake preparedness to earthquake risk mitigation strategies, including the update of the European seismic regulations for building design (Eurocode 8), and thus it is useful for future safety assessment and improvement of private and public buildings. Although its results constitute a reference for Europe, they do not replace the existing national design regulations that are in place for seismic design and construction of buildings. The ESHM13 represents a significant improvement compared to previous efforts as it is based on (1) the compilation of updated and harmonised versions of the databases required for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (2) the adoption of standard procedures and robust methods, especially for expert elicitation and consensus building among hundreds of European experts, (3) the multi-disciplinary input from all branches of earthquake science and engineering, (4) the direct involvement of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in defining output specifications relevant for Eurocode 8 and (5) the accounting for epistemic uncertainties of model components and hazard results. Furthermore, enormous effort was devoted to transparently document and ensure open availability of all data, results and methods through the European Facility for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org)

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE, 2009–2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the “Global Earthquake Model” initiative. It might serve as a reference model for various applications, from earthquake preparedness to earthquake risk mitigation strategies, including the update of the European seismic regulations for building design (Eurocode 8), and thus it is useful for future safety assessment and improvement of private and public buildings. Although its results constitute a reference for Europe, they do not replace the existing national design regulations that are in place for seismic design and construction of buildings. The ESHM13 represents a significant improvement compared to previous efforts as it is based on (1) the compilation of updated and harmonised versions of the databases required for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (2) the adoption of standard procedures and robust methods, especially for expert elicitation and consensus building among hundreds of European experts, (3) the multi-disciplinary input from all branches of earthquake science and engineering, (4) the direct involvement of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in defining output specifications relevant for Eurocode 8 and (5) the accounting for epistemic uncertainties of model components and hazard results. Furthermore, enormous effort was devoted to transparently document and ensure open availability of all data, results and methods through the European Facility for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.​efehr.​org)

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2012

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2012. During this period, 497 earthquakes and 88 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. With a total of only 13 events with ML≥2.5, the seismic activity in the year 2012 was far below the average over the previous 37years. Most noteworthy were the earthquake sequence of Filisur (GR) in January with two events of ML 3.3 and 3.5, the ML 4.2 and ML 3.5 earthquakes at a depth of 32km below Zug in February and the ML 3.6 event near Vallorcine in October. The epicentral intensity of the ML 4.2 event close to Zug was IV, with a maximum intensity of V reached in a few areas, probably due to site amplification effect