Characteristics of the Portuguese Economic Growth: What has been Missing?

This paper analyzes the Portuguese economic growth since the 1960's until present and compares its composition with that of Spain, Greece and Ireland. The average real GDP growth rate in each decade is decomposed as the contribution of input accumulation and total factor productivity. The contribution of labour and capital is separated using computed elasticities and the contribution of total factor productivity is disentangled into technological progress and efficiency. The methodology is based on Bayesian statistical methods and allows the computation of a world translog dynamic stochastic production frontier, which captures the technology that is available to all economies in each period of time. The results obtained are accurate in terms of the contribution of input accumulation and total factor productivity to GDP growth but there is lower precision when separating the contributions of technology growth and efficiency. The results obtained show that Portugal owes most of its economic growth to the accumulation of factors and not to total factor productivity. In particular the contribution of technology to economic growth is substantially lower than what is observed in the other economies considered. It is argued that this may be due to the existence of a low capital-labour ratio, which determines that Portugal is placed in a segment of the world production frontier that does not expand significantly as a result of technological progress. In addition, there is some evidence of modest developments in terms of efficiency which may be associated with the low quality of new inputs relatively to other economies. Another possible explanation for the disappointing performance of the Portuguese economy in the last decade lies in the existence of statistical inaccuracies in the measurement of GDP, especially in what concerns the contribution of some services.

International Fragmentation of Production in the Portuguese Economy: What do Different Measures Tell Us?

This paper analyses the relevance and the characteristics of the international fragmentation of production in the Portuguese economy. The empirical trade literature suggests different measures of fragmentation, changing the scope of the concept and using alternative sets of information. The existing measures can be broadly divided in those that make use of Input-Output matrices together with international trade data and those that look at specific elements of international transactions, namely trade in parts and components and outward-inward processing trade. In this paper, we survey the different measures of international fragmentation of production and apply them to Portuguese data. Our results of Input-Output based measures point to a substantial increase of the vertical linkages in the Portuguese economy, in particular since the nineties. Nevertheless, it seems that the pace of vertical specialization has been somewhat modest in international terms. The share of exports of parts and components in total trade has almost doubled in the last two decades, while the import share of these goods has remained nearly stable. Processing trade represents a very low share of Portuguese international trade.

Vertical Specialization Across the World: A Relative Measure

This paper investigates a specific aspect of international production linkages that, following Hummels et al. (2001), is commonly designated as vertical specialization (VS) - the use of imported inputs to produce goods that are afterwards exported. We propose a relative measure of VS-based trade that combines information from Input-Output matrices and international trade data, producing results for a large sample of individual countries and geographical areas with a detailed product breakdown over the 1967-2005 period. This measure identifies a country’s trade flow as associated with VS activities when the share of exports of a good relatively to the world average is above a given threshold and it is accompanied by a relative share of imports of a related intermediate product that is also above the threshold. The quantification of VS-based trade for each country/product pair in each period is made in a relative and conservative manner, since it includes only the value of intermediate imports that surpasses what is implied by the chosen international threshold. The detailed results can be subsequently added up to get any product or geographical breakdown desired. We illustrate this measure by showing the evolution of VS activities at the world level over the last four decades using a product breakdown by technological intensity and a geographical breakdown by main areas. The results point to a substantial increase of VS in high-technology products over the last two decades. There is also empirical evidence on the sharp increase of VS activities in East Asia.

Total Factor Productivity Growth in the G7 Countries: Different or Alike?

The paper compares the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to economic growth in the G7 countries, from 1960 until 2005. A dynamic world translog stochastic production frontier is computed through Bayesian statistical methods using panel data on 21 OECD economies. The real GDP growth rate is decomposed in TFP and input accumulation contributions', the former being divided in two components: efficiency developments (the distance to the world production function) and technological progress (the expansion of the world production function). The paper adopts the methodology suggested by Koop, Osiewalsky and Steel (1999), though it covers a much larger period, allowing for the identification of intertemporal growth patters. The growth accounting exercise requires a Gibbs Sampling iteration algorithm and it is carried out for eight periods, each one covering ten yearly growth rates, with overlapping sub periods of five years. The results obtained show that the contribution of technological progress to total TFP is typically stronger than efficiency improvements. The US and Canada recorded a TFP acceleration after the mid 1980s, following declines in the previous decades. In addition, the inputs accumulation gave a relatively stable contribution for GDP growth throughout the sample period. Italy and France present a continuous declining trend in TFP contribution, though more marked in the latter case. Germany and the UK seem to have moved to a new lower floor of TFP contribution in the last decades. Japan, presents a downward trend in TFP contribution that is even more pronounced than in Italy. However, some reversal was seen in the Japanese TFP in the last decade considered. The shape of the stochastic production function changed along the period considered, benefiting more capital intensive input-combinations. In addition, there is some evidence of increasing returns to scale in the G7 countries, though it may be related with the non consideration of quality aspects in the measurement of inputs.

Product and Destination Mix in Export Markets

Expansion into foreign markets is a major decision for a firm and it involves choices about which countries to approach and which products to export. We use a new database that covers the universe of export transactions for firms located in Portugal for the period 1996-2005 in order to examine the joint decision of where and what to export. We find that multi-product and multi-destination firms are crucial in explaining the dynamics of export over time. The exporters' portfolio is very diversified in terms of sectors and product tenure and it is frequently modified over time. We show that, while continuing firms exporting continuing products to continuing destinations are fundamental in explaining the year-to-year growth rate of aggregate exports, the contribution of gross entry and exit of both destinations and products is, in absolute value, as important as the contribution of gross entry and exit of firms. Moreover, growth dynamics of new exporters proceeds along lines that are different from those characterizing the representative incumbent firm. The destination extensive margin is almost as important as the destination intensive margin and almost one-third of the latter is due to product switching (the product extensive margin). Firms access new destinations mostly by exporting new products, i.e. products that were not previously sold anywhere else by the firm. Products already exported by the firm to other destinations are an important but not the primary way to enter new destinations.

Optimal Budget Deficit Rules

This paper discusses the problem of the optimal determination of budget deficit limits in cases where the fiscal authority wishes to keep the budget deficit close to a reference value. It is assumed that the fiscal authority minimizes the expected discounted value of squared deviations from the reference value. Lump-sum and proportional intervention costs are considered. This paper is also an example of integration between stochastic process optimal control methods and the continuous time stochastic models. In fact, the characteristics of the stochastic process that rules the path of the budget deficit are taken from a previously developed continuous time stochastic model (Amador, 1999). Finally, simulation methods are used in order to conduct a comparative dynamics analysis. The paper concludes that, in the case of proportional intervention costs, the optimal ceiling depends positively on the cost parameter and on the variance of the budget deficit. On the contrary, the optimal ceiling depends negatively on the average budget deficit. These results remain valid in the case where there are both lump-sum and proportional intervention costs. Finally, in a stationary equilibrium context, we conclude that economies with higher tax rates and lower public expenditure should set higher budget deficit ceilings. The same is true for economies with a higher variance in technology and public expenditure shocks.N/