THE 1995 THROUGH 1998 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR WHEAT

The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance from 1995 through 1998 for wheat. The average net advisory price across all 24 wheat programs in 1995 is $3.79 per bushel,$0.18 above the market benchmark price. The range in 1995 is $3.01 to$4.71 per bushel. The average net advisory service price for 23 wheat programs in 1996 is $3.82 per bushel,$0.13 below the market benchmark. The range in 1996 is $2.74 to$4.94 per bushel. The average net advisory price for all 20 wheat programs in 1997 is $2.64 per bushel,$0.58 below the market benchmark. The range in 1997 is $1.34 to$3.90 per bushel. Finally, the average net advisory price across all 21 services in 1998 is $2.36 per bushel,$0.54 below the market benchmark. The range in 1998 is $1.34 to$3.33 per bushel.Marketing,

1998 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS

The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1998 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1998. The average net advisory price across all 23 corn programs is $2.17 per bushel - seven cents below the market benchmark price. The net advisory prices for corn range from a minimum of$1.93 per bushel to a maximum of $2.51 per bushel. The average net advisory price across all 22 soybean programs is$5.82 per bushel - four cents less than the market benchmark. The net advisory prices for soybeans range from a minimum of $5.11 per bushel to a maximum of$6.58 per bushel.Marketing,

DO AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES BEAT THE MARKET? EVIDENCE FROM THE WHEAT MARKET OVER 1995-1998

The purpose of this report is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services in wheat: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their performance from year-to-year? Data on wheat net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 crop years. Not only do market advisory programs in wheat consistently fail to "beat the market," their performance is significantly worse than the market. On average, market advisory service performance is about $14 per acre below benchmark revenue, an economically non-trivial amount by any reasonable standard. The predictability results provide little evidence that future advisory service pricing performance can be predicted from past performance.Marketing,

DO AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES BEAT THE MARKET? EVIDENCE FROM THE WHEAT MARKET OVER 1995-1998

The purpose of this report is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services in wheat: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their performance from year-to-year? Data on wheat net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 crop years. Not only do market advisory programs in wheat consistently fail to "beat the market," their performance is significantly worse than the market. On average, market advisory service performance is about $14 per acre below benchmark revenue, an economically non-trivial amount by any reasonable standard. The predictability results provide little evidence that future advisory service pricing performance can be predicted from past performance

THE PERFORMANCE OF AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN MARKETING WHEAT

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of agricultural market advisory services in marketing wheat. Two key performance questions are addressed: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate wheat market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their wheat performance from year-to-year? Market advisory service recommendations for wheat are available from the AgMAS Project for the 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 marketing years. At least 20 advisory programs are included for each year. Tests of pricing performance relative to a market benchmark are based on the proportion of programs exceeding the benchmark price and the average percentage difference between the net price of advisory programs and the benchmark price. In statistical terms, the pricing performance test results are clear. Not only do market advisory programs in wheat consistently fail to "beat the market," their performance is significantly worse than the market. The level of under-performance is striking and consistent, with the proportion of programs above market benchmarks for the four-year period ranging from 0.34 to 0.38. Estimates of the four-year average return relative to market benchmarks range from -9.61 to -10.48 percent. Tests of predictability are based on the correlation of performance measures for overlapping and non-overlapping adjacent marketing years. In general, the predictability results provide little evidence that future advisory program pricing performance can be usefully predicted from past performance. On average, correlations are positive for overlapping years (e.g. 1995 vs. 1996). However, correlations tend to be negative for non-overlapping years (e.g. 1995 vs. 1997), which implies that producers selecting top-performing programs based on a given year, and expecting them to continue to be top-performing funds, would actually experience just the opposite result

1998 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS

The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1998 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1998. The average net advisory price across all 23 corn programs is $2.17 per bushel - seven cents below the market benchmark price. The net advisory prices for corn range from a minimum of$1.93 per bushel to a maximum of $2.51 per bushel. The average net advisory price across all 22 soybean programs is$5.82 per bushel - four cents less than the market benchmark. The net advisory prices for soybeans range from a minimum of $5.11 per bushel to a maximum of$6.58 per bushel

THE 1995 THROUGH 1998 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR WHEAT

The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance from 1995 through 1998 for wheat. The average net advisory price across all 24 wheat programs in 1995 is $3.79 per bushel,$0.18 above the market benchmark price. The range in 1995 is $3.01 to$4.71 per bushel. The average net advisory service price for 23 wheat programs in 1996 is $3.82 per bushel,$0.13 below the market benchmark. The range in 1996 is $2.74 to$4.94 per bushel. The average net advisory price for all 20 wheat programs in 1997 is $2.64 per bushel,$0.58 below the market benchmark. The range in 1997 is $1.34 to$3.90 per bushel. Finally, the average net advisory price across all 21 services in 1998 is $2.36 per bushel,$0.54 below the market benchmark. The range in 1998 is $1.34 to$3.33 per bushel