A high-resolution global flood hazard model

Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ∼90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ∼1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ∼5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.</p

Death or survival from invasive pneumococcal disease in Scotland: associations with serogroups and multilocus sequence types

We describe associations between death from invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and particular serogroups and sequence types (STs) determined by multilocus sequence typing (MLST) using data from Scotland. All IPD episodes where blood or cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture isolates were referred to the Scottish Haemophilus, Legionella, Meningococcal and Pneumococcal Reference Laboratory (SHLMPRL) from January 1992 to February 2007 were matched to death certification records by the General Register Office for Scotland. This represented 5959 patients. The median number of IPD cases in Scotland each year was 292. Deaths, from any cause, within 30 days of pneumococcal culture from blood or CSF were considered to have IPD as a contributing factor. Eight hundred and thirty-three patients died within 30 days of culture of Streptococcus pneumoniae from blood or CSF [13.95%; 95% confidence interval (13.10, 14.80)]. The highest death rates were in patients over the age of 75. Serotyping data exist for all years but MLST data were only available from 2001 onward. The risk ratio of dying from infection due to particular serogroups or STs compared to dying from IPD due to all other serogroups or STs was calculated. Fisher's exact test with Bonferroni adjustment for multiple testing was used. Age adjustment was accomplished using the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test and 95% confidence intervals were reported. Serogroups 3, 11 and 16 have increased probability of causing fatal IPD in Scotland while serogroup 1 IPD has a reduced probability of causing death. None of the 20 most common STs were significantly associated with death within 30 days of pneumococcal culture, after age adjustment. We conclude that there is a stronger association between a fatal outcome and pneumococcal capsular serogroup than there is between a fatal outcome and ST

Embracing additive manufacture: implications for foot and ankle orthosis design

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The design of foot and ankle orthoses is currently limited by the methods used to fabricate the devices, particularly in terms of geometric freedom and potential to include innovative new features. Additive manufacturing (AM) technologies, where objects are constructed via a series of sub-millimetre layers of a substrate material, may present the opportunity to overcome these limitations and allow novel devices to be produced that are highly personalised for the individual, both in terms of fit and functionality.</p> <p>Two novel devices, a foot orthosis (FO) designed to include adjustable elements to relieve pressure at the metatarsal heads, and an ankle foot orthosis (AFO) designed to have adjustable stiffness levels in the sagittal plane, were developed and fabricated using AM. The devices were then tested on a healthy participant to determine if the intended biomechanical modes of action were achieved.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The adjustable, pressure relieving FO was found to be able to significantly reduce pressure under the targeted metatarsal heads. The AFO was shown to have distinct effects on ankle kinematics which could be varied by adjusting the stiffness level of the device.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results presented here demonstrate the potential design freedom made available by AM, and suggest that it may allow novel personalised orthotic devices to be produced which are beyond the current state of the art.</p