When Bad News Arrives: Project HOPE in a Post-Factual World

On the basis of limited empirical evidence, advocates of Project HOPE (Hawaii’s Opportunity Probation with Enforcement) have succeeded in spreading the model to a reported 31 states and 160 locations. A recent randomized control experiment across four sites has revealed negative results: no overall effect on recidivism. In this context, we examine how prominent advocates of Project HOPE have coped with the arrival of this “bad news.” Despite null findings from a “gold standard” evaluation study, advocates continue to express confidence in the HOPE model and to support its further implementation. The risk thus exists that Project HOPE is entering a post-factual world in which diminishing its appeal—let alone its falsification—is not possible. It is the collective responsibility of corrections researchers to warn policy makers that the HOPE model is not a proven intervention and may not be effective in many agencies. It is also our responsibility to create a science of community supervision that can establish more definitively best practices in this area

Exposure to fetal testosterone, aggression, and violent behavior: A meta-analysis of the 2D:4D digit ratio

The search for reliable risk factors is a staple among both scholars and policymakers concerned with structuring interventions designed to reduce aggressive and violent behavior. Within this line of work, strong claims have recently been made regarding the predictive capacity of a potential physical biomarker of criminogenic risk: the 2D:4D digit ratio, a purported indirect indicator of exposure to fetal testosterone. The results of studies assessing the link between the digit ratio and problematic behavior are, however, mixed. Accordingly, in the present study we subject this literature (N=32 studies; 361 effect size estimates) to a meta-analysis using multilevel modeling techniques. Our results reveal that the overall mean effect size of the 2D:4D digit ratio to measures of aggressive and violent behavior is weak but statistically significant (mean r=0.036, p<0.05). Moderator analyses confirm that these weak effects are generally consistent (and often non-significant) across a variety of methodological conditions (e.g., different outcome measures, different kinds of samples). We conclude with a call for caution against placing emphasis on the 2D:4D digit ratio as a reliable risk factor for aggressive and violent behavior

Consequences of Victimization on Perceived Friend Support During Adolescence

Victimization can harm youth in various ways and negatively affect their friendships with peers. Nevertheless, not all victimized youth are impacted similarly, and the literature is unclear regarding why some victims are more likely than others to experience friendship-based consequences. Using five waves of data on 901 adolescents (6th grade at wave 1; 47% male; 88% White) and a subsample of 492 victimized youth, this study assessed (1) whether victimization leads to decreases in perceived friend support, and (2) the factors that explain which victimized youth are most likely to experience decreases in perceived friend support. Explanatory factors included subsequent victimization, victims’ social network status (self-reported number of friends, number of friendship nominations received), and victims’ risky behaviors (affiliating with deviant friends, delinquency, aggression, binge drinking). Random effects regressions revealed that, among the full sample, victimization was linked to decreases in friend support. Among victimized youth, subsequent victimization and deviant friends decreased friend support. Having more friends was associated with increased friend support among victims, though this association weakened as the number of friends increased. The results emphasize that victimized youth are a heterogeneous group with varying risks of experiencing friendship-based consequences