Predicted current and future (2080) suitable habitats for five woody oil plants (<i>Pistacia chinensis</i>, <i>Cornus wilsoniana</i>, <i>Xanthoceras sorbifolia</i>, <i>Vernicia fordii</i> and <i>Sapium sebiferum</i>).

<p>Predicted current and future (2080) suitable habitats for five woody oil plants (<i>Pistacia chinensis</i>, <i>Cornus wilsoniana</i>, <i>Xanthoceras sorbifolia</i>, <i>Vernicia fordii</i> and <i>Sapium sebiferum</i>).</p

The area under receiver operating curve (AUC) score of MaxEnt models for each of the nine bioenergy plants.

<p>The area under receiver operating curve (AUC) score of MaxEnt models for each of the nine bioenergy plants.</p

Percent contributions of the bioclimatic variables in the MaxEnt models for the nine target bioenergy plants.

<p>Percent contributions of the bioclimatic variables in the MaxEnt models for the nine target bioenergy plants.</p

Predicted current and future (2080) suitable habitats for four bioenergy grasses (<i>Miscanthus sinensis</i>, <i>M. floridulus</i>, <i>M. sacchariflorus</i> and <i>Arundo donax</i>).

<p>Predicted current and future (2080) suitable habitats for four bioenergy grasses (<i>Miscanthus sinensis</i>, <i>M. floridulus</i>, <i>M. sacchariflorus</i> and <i>Arundo donax</i>).</p

Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Major Native Non-Food Bioenergy Plants in China

<div><p>Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (<i>viz.</i>, <i>Pistacia chinensis</i>, <i>Cornus wilsoniana</i>, <i>Xanthoceras sorbifolia</i>, <i>Vernicia fordii</i>, <i>Sapium sebiferum</i>, <i>Miscanthus sinensis</i>, <i>M. floridulus</i>, <i>M. sacchariflorus</i> and <i>Arundo donax</i>) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of “precipitation of the warmest quarter” and “annual mean temperature” were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.</p></div

Nine native non-food bioenergy plants distributed in China.

<p>Nine native non-food bioenergy plants distributed in China.</p

Mismatch distributions analyses of sudden- and spatial-expansion models and neutrality tests of Groups I and II.

**<p><i>P</i><0.01;</p>***<p><i>P</i><0.001.</p

Hierarchical analysis of AMOVA of <i>Calotes versicolor</i>.

<p>The geographical division of the Groups I and II correspond to the ranges as shown in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0064754#pone-0064754-g001" target="_blank">Figure 1</a>.</p>#<p>Excluding mainland populations, living Hainan Island populations.</p>*<p><i>P</i><0.05;</p>***<p><i>P</i><0.001.</p

Extended Bayesian skyline plots showing the demographic trends in Groups I and II of <i>Calotes versicolor</i>.

<p>The x-axis is in units of million years ago and the y-axis represents the estimated population size on a log scale (N_eτ/10⁶, the product of the female effective population size and generation length in years). The central line shows the median estimate of effective population size, while dashed lines represent the 95% credibility limits.</p

Diversification and Demography of the Oriental Garden Lizard (<i>Calotes versicolor</i>) on Hainan Island and the Adjacent Mainland

<div><p>The Oriental garden lizard (<i>Calotes versicolor</i>) is one of the few non-gekkonid lizards that are geographically widespread in the tropics. We investigated its population dynamics on Hainan Island and the adjacent mainland of China and Vietnam, focusing on the impact of cyclic upheaval and submergence of land bridges during the Pleistocene. Our Bayesian phylogenetic analysis reveals two mitochondrial lineages, A and B, which are estimated to have coalesced about 0.26 million years ago (95% credibility interval: 0.05–0.61 million years ago). Lineage A contains individuals mainly from central and southern Wuzhi Mountain on Hainan Island, whereas lineage B mainly comprises individuals from other sites on the island plus the adjacent mainland. The estimated coalescence times within lineages A (0.05 million years ago) and B (0.13 million years ago) fall within a period of cyclical land-bridge formation and disappearance in the Pleistocene. A spatial analysis of molecular variance identified two distinct population groupings: I, primarily containing lineage A, and II, mainly consisting of lineage B. However, haplotypes from lineages A and B occur sympatrically, suggesting that gene flow is ongoing. Neither Wuzhi Mountain nor Qiongzhou Strait and Gulf of Tonkin act as barriers to gene flow among <i>C. versicolor</i> populations. Analyses of the data using mismatch distributions and extended Bayesian skyline plots provide evidence of a relatively stable population size through time for Group I, and moderate population expansions and contractions during the end of the Pleistocene for Group II. We conclude that the phylogeographical patterns of <i>C. versicolor</i> are the combined product of Pleistocene sea-level oscillations and nonphysical barriers to gene flow.</p></div