DNA identification by pedigree likelihood ratio accommodating population substructure and mutations

DNA typing is an important tool in missing-person identification, especially in mass-fatality disasters. Identification methods comparing a DNA profile from unidentified human remains with that of a direct (from the person) or indirect (for example, from a biological relative) reference sample and ranking the pairwise likelihood ratios (LR) is straightforward and well defined. However, for indirect comparison cases in which several members from a family can serve as reference samples, the full power of kinship analysis is not entirely exploited. Because biologically related family members are not genetically independent, more information and thus greater power can be attained by simultaneous use of all pedigree members in most cases, although distant relationships may reduce the power. In this study, an improvement was made on the method for missing-person identification for autosomal and lineage-based markers, by considering jointly the DNA profile data of all available family reference samples. The missing person is evaluated by a pedigree LR of the probability of DNA evidence under alternative hypotheses (for example, the missing person is unrelated or if they belong to this pedigree with a specified biological relationship) and can be ranked for all pedigrees within a database. Pedigree LRs are adjusted for population substructure according to the recommendations of the second National Research Council (NRCII) Report. A realistic mutation model was also incorporated to accommodate the possibility of false exclusion. The results show that the effect of mutation on the pedigree LR is moderate, but LRs can be significantly decreased by the effect of population substructure. Finally, Y chromosome and mitochondrial DNA were integrated into the analysis to increase the power of identification. A program titled MPKin was developed, combining the aforementioned features to facilitate genetic analysis for identifying missing persons. The computational complexity of the algorithms is explained, and several ways to reduce the complexity are introduced

A prospective cost-benefit analysis for nylon 4N6FLOQSwabs (R) : example of the process and potential benefits

Laboratories and their criminal justice systems are confronted with challenges for implementing new technologies, practices, and policies even when there appears to be demonstrative benefits to operational performance. Impacting decisions are the often higher costs associated with, for example, new technologies, limited current budgets, and making hard decisions on what to sacrifice to take on the seemingly better approach. A prospective cost-benefit analysis (CBA) could help an agency better formulate its strategies and plans and more importantly delineate how a relatively small increase to take on, for example, a new technology can have large impact on the system (e.g., the agency, other agencies, victims and families, and taxpayers). To demonstrate the process and potential value a CBA was performed on the use of an alternate and more expensive swab with reported better DNA yield and being certified human DNA free (i.e., nylon 4N6FLOQSwabs (R)), versus the traditional less costly swab (i.e., cotton swab). Assumptions are described, potential underestimates and overestimates noted, different values applied (for low and modest to high), and potential benefits (monetary and qualitative) presented. The overall outcome is that the cost of using the more expensive technology pales compared with the potential tangible and intangible benefits. This approach could be a guide for laboratories (and associated criminal justice systems) worldwide to support increased funding, although the costs and benefits may vary locally and for different technologies, practices, and policies. With well-developed CBAs, goals of providing the best services to support the criminal justice system and society can be attained.Peer reviewe

Use of prior odds for missing persons identifications

Identification of missing persons from mass disasters is based on evaluation of a number of variables and observations regarding the combination of features derived from these variables. DNA typing now is playing a more prominent role in the identification of human remains, and particularly so for highly decomposed and fragmented remains. The strength of genetic associations, by either direct or kinship analyses, is often quantified by calculating a likelihood ratio. The likelihood ratio can be multiplied by prior odds based on nongenetic evidence to calculate the posterior odds, that is, by applying Bayes' Theorem, to arrive at a probability of identity. For the identification of human remains, the path creating the set and intersection of variables that contribute to the prior odds needs to be appreciated and well defined. Other than considering the total number of missing persons, the forensic DNA community has been silent on specifying the elements of prior odds computations. The variables include the number of missing individuals, eyewitness accounts, anthropological features, demographics and other identifying characteristics. The assumptions, supporting data and reasoning that are used to establish a prior probability that will be combined with the genetic data need to be considered and justified. Otherwise, data may be unintentionally or intentionally manipulated to achieve a probability of identity that cannot be supported and can thus misrepresent the uncertainty with associations. The forensic DNA community needs to develop guidelines for objectively computing prior odds

Response to: Use of prior odds for missing persons identifications - authors' reply

Please see related article: http://www.investigativegenetics.com/content/3/1/

Kinship Index Variations among Populations and Thresholds for Familial Searching

Current familial searching strategies are developed primarily based on autosomal STR loci, since most of the offender profiles in the forensic DNA databases do not contain Y-STR or mitochondrial DNA data. There are generally two familial searching methods, Identity-by-State (IBS) based methods or kinship index (KI) based methods. The KI based method is an analytically superior method because the allele frequency information is considered as opposed to solely allele counting. However, multiple KIs should be calculated if the unknown forensic profile may be attributed to multiple possible relevant populations. An important practical issue is the KI threshold to select for limiting the list of candidates from a search. There are generally three strategies of setting the KI threshold for familial searching: (1) SWGDAM recommendation 6; (2) minimum KI≥KI threshold; and (3) maximum KI≥KI threshold. These strategies were evaluated and compared by using both simulation data and empirical data. The minimum KI will tend to be closer to the KI appropriate for the population of which the forensic profile belongs. The minimum KI≥KI threshold performs better than the maximum KI≥KI threshold. The SWGDAM strategy may be too stringent for familial searching with large databases (e.g., 1 million or more profiles), because its KI thresholds depend on the database size and the KI thresholds of large databases have a higher probability to exclude true relatives than smaller databases. Minimum KI≥KI threshold strategy is a better option, as it provides the flexibility to adjust the KI threshold according to a pre-determined number of candidates or false positive/negative rates. Joint use of both IBS and KI does not significantly reduce the chance of including true relatives in a candidate list, but does provide a higher efficiency of familial searching

Blind study evaluation illustrates utility of the Ion PGM™ system for use in human identity DNA typing

Aim To perform a blind study to assess the capability of the Ion Personal Genome Machine® (PGM™) system to sequence forensically relevant genetic marker panels and to characterize unknown individuals for ancestry and possible relatedness. Methods Twelve genomic samples were provided by a third party for blinded genetic analysis. For these 12 samples, the mitochondrial genome and three PGM™ panels containing human identity single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), ancestry informative SNPs, and short tandem repeats (STRs) were sequenced on the PGM™ system and analyzed. Results All four genetic systems were run and analyzed on the PGM™ system in a reasonably quick time frame. Completeness of genetic profiles, depth of coverage, strand balance, and allele balance were informative metrics that illustrated the quality and reliability of the data produced. SNP genotypes allowed for identification of sex, paternal lineage, and population ancestry. STR genotypes were shown to be in complete concordance with genotypes generated by standard capillary electrophoresis-based technologies. Variants in the mitochondrial genome data provided information on population background and maternal relationships. Conclusion All results from analysis of the 12 genomic samples were consistent with sample information provided by the sample providers at the end of the blinded study. The relatively easy identification of intra-STR allele SNPs offered the potential for increased discrimination power. The promising nature of these results warrants full validation studies of this massively parallel sequencing technology and its further development for forensic data analysis

vcferr: Development, validation, and application of a single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping error simulation framework [version 1; peer review: 1 approved, 2 approved with reservations]

Motivation: Genotyping error can impact downstream single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based analyses. Simulating various modes and levels of error can help investigators better understand potential biases caused by miscalled genotypes. Methods: We have developed and validated vcferr, a tool to probabilistically simulate genotyping error and missingness in variant call format (VCF) files. We demonstrate how vcferr could be used to address a research question by introducing varying levels of error of different type into a sample in a simulated pedigree, and assessed how kinship analysis degrades as a function of the kind and type of error. Software availability: vcferr is available for installation via PyPi (https://pypi.org/project/vcferr/) or conda (https://anaconda.org/bioconda/vcferr). The software is released under the MIT license with source code available on GitHub (https://github.com/signaturescience/vcferr

Precision DNA Mixture Interpretation with Single-Cell Profiling

Wet-lab based studies have exploited emerging single-cell technologies to address the challenges of interpreting forensic mixture evidence. However, little effort has been dedicated to developing a systematic approach to interpreting the single-cell profiles derived from the mixtures. This study is the first attempt to develop a comprehensive interpretation workflow in which single-cell profiles from mixtures are interpreted individually and holistically. In this approach, the genotypes from each cell are assessed, the number of contributors (NOC) of the single-cell profiles is estimated, followed by developing a consensus profile of each contributor, and finally the consensus profile(s) can be used for a DNA database search or comparing with known profiles to determine their potential sources. The potential of this single-cell interpretation workflow was assessed by simulation with various mixture scenarios and empirical allele drop-out and drop-in rates, the accuracies of estimating the NOC, the accuracies of recovering the true alleles by consensus, and the capabilities of deconvolving mixtures with related contributors. The results support that the single-cell based mixture interpretation can provide a precision that cannot beachieved with current standard CE-STR analyses. A new paradigm for mixture interpretation is available to enhance the interpretation of forensic genetic casework