Does aggregate relative risk aversion change countercyclically over time? evidence from the stock market

Using a semiparametric estimation technique, we show that the risk-return tradeoff and the Sharpe ratio of the stock market increases monotonically with the consumption wealth ratio (CAY) across time. While early studies have commonly interpreted such a finding as evidence of the countercyclical variation in aggregate relative risk aversion (RRA), we argue that it mainly reflects changes in investment opportunities for two reasons. First, we fail to reject the null hypothesis of constant RRA after controlling for CAY as a proxy for the hedge against changes in the investment opportunity set. Second, by contrast with habit formation models but consistent with ICAPM, we find that loadings on the conditional stock market variance scaled by CAY are negatively priced in the cross-sectional regressions. For illustration, we replicate the countercyclical stock market risk-return tradeoff using simulated data from Guo's (2004) limited stock market participation model, in which RRA is constant and CAY is a proxy for shareholders' liquidity conditions.Capital assets pricing model ; Stock market

International transmission of inflation among G-7 countries: a data-determined VAR analysis

We investigate the international transmission of inflation among G-7 countries using a data-determined vector autoregression analysis, as advocated by Swanson and Granger (1997). Over the period 1973 to 2003, we find that U.S. innovations have a large effect on inflation in the other countries, although they are not always the dominant international factor. Similarly, shocks to some other countries also have a statistically and economically significant influence on U.S. inflation. Moreover, our evidence indicates that U.S. inflation has become less vulnerable to foreign shocks since the early 1990s, mainly because of the diminished influence from Germany and FranceInternational finance ; Time-series analysis

Gradient flow approach to an exponential thin film equation: global existence and latent singularity

In this work, we study a fourth order exponential equation, $u_t=\Delta e^{-\Delta u},$ derived from thin film growth on crystal surface in multiple space dimensions. We use the gradient flow method in metric space to characterize the latent singularity in global strong solution, which is intrinsic due to high degeneration. We define a suitable functional, which reveals where the singularity happens, and then prove the variational inequality solution under very weak assumptions for initial data. Moreover, the existence of global strong solution is established with regular initial data.Comment: latent singularity, curve of maximal slope. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1711.07405 by other author

Frequency Detection and Change Point Estimation for Time Series of Complex Oscillation

We consider detecting the evolutionary oscillatory pattern of a signal when it is contaminated by non-stationary noises with complexly time-varying data generating mechanism. A high-dimensional dense progressive periodogram test is proposed to accurately detect all oscillatory frequencies. A further phase-adjusted local change point detection algorithm is applied in the frequency domain to detect the locations at which the oscillatory pattern changes. Our method is shown to be able to detect all oscillatory frequencies and the corresponding change points within an accurate range with a prescribed probability asymptotically. This study is motivated by oscillatory frequency estimation and change point detection problems encountered in physiological time series analysis. An application to spindle detection and estimation in sleep EEG data is used to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methodology. A Gaussian approximation scheme and an overlapping-block multiplier bootstrap methodology for sums of complex-valued high dimensional non-stationary time series without variance lower bounds are established, which could be of independent interest

Is value premium a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities: some time series evidence

We uncover a positive, empirical risk-return tradeoff in the stock market after controlling for the covariance of stock market returns with the value premium. The underlying premise is that, as conjectured by Fama and French (1996), the value premium is a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities. By ignoring the value premium, early specifications suffer from an omitted variable problem that leads to a downward bias in the estimate of the risk-return tradeoff. The paper also documents a new finding on a significantly positive relation between the value premium and its conditional variance.Time-series analysis ; Stocks