How schools influence students' academic achievements: a behavioral approach with empirical evidence from add health data.

This paper proposes a behavioral model to study how schools influence students’ educational behavior and academic achievements. The school quality is then defined into two dimensions: the amount of market-valued skills schools impart and how well schools cultivate an educational identity. Using data from Add Health in the US, I test the major hypotheses from the theoretical model. On the one hand, school resources (average class size and teacher supply) and student-level curriculum have some effects on the math GPA scores. On the other hand, educational identity indicators (school-level happiness and participation at school teams, clubs or organizations) and the previous math GPA scores are significant determinants in students’ observable effort level such as absenteeism behavior, and through this channel both determinants indirectly influence math GPA achievement. These empirical results inform us that an identity-based behavioral model adds to a rational expectation educational choice model in understanding the widening academic achievement gap between adolescents from different socioeconomic backgrounds. The paper presents the limitation of using school resources to study the school quality and advocates a richer set of school quality measures.

Identity and educational choice: a behavioral approach.

It is puzzling that socioeconomic background greatly affects educational choice. Distinguished from the explanations based on expected utility theory, this paper attempts to explore the psychological mechanisms of generating educational identity1 and schooling choice. It offers a self-signaling model where (1) it incorporates self-esteem concerns into the agent’s payoff function, (2) the investment in schooling not only signals her cognitive ability but also brings the agent into cognitive dissonance and reduction when the perceptions of ability are time-dependent. Using this model, I show a more discriminating analysis of educational choice which combines multi-dimensional factors including socioeconomic background, cognitive and non-cognitive abilities. I identify the conditions under which the high ability agent fails to invest in education. The quality of school and the preschooling are key variables. The model suggests that public policy can help poor children by improving both the early and later education quality at school.

Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone: An Empirical Test. CEPS Working Document No. 366, 22 June 2012

This paper tests the hypothesis that government bond markets in the eurozone are more fragile and more susceptible to self-fulfilling liquidity crises than in stand-alone countries. We find evidence that a significant part of the surge in the spreads of the PIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) in the eurozone during 2010-11 was disconnected from underlying increases in the debt-to-GDP ratios and fiscal space variables, and was the result of negative self-fulfilling market sentiments that became very strong since the end of 2010. We argue that this can drive member countries of the eurozone into bad equilibria. We also find evidence that after years of neglecting high government debt, investors became increasingly worried about this in the eurozone, and reacted by raising the spreads. No such worries developed in stand-alone countries despite the fact that debt-to-GDP ratios and fiscal space variables were equally high and increasing in these countries

Strong governments, weak banks. CEPS Policy Brief No. 305, 25 November 2013

Banks in the northern eurozone have capital ratios that are, on average, less than half of the capital ratios of banks in the eurozone’s periphery. The authors explain this by the fact that northern eurozone banks profit from the financial solidity of their governments and follow business strategies aimed at issuing too much subsidised debt. In doing so, they weaken their balance sheets and become more fragile – less able to withstand future shocks. Paradoxically, financially strong governments breed fragile banks. The opposite occurs in countries with financially weak governments. In these countries banks are forced to strengthen themselves because they are unable to rely on their governments. As a result they have significantly more capital and reserves than banks in the northern eurozone. Recommendations More than in the south, the governments of northern Europe should stand up and force the banks to issue more equity. This should go much further than what is foreseen in the Basel III accord. If the experience of the southern eurozone countries is any guide, banks in the north of the eurozone should at least double the capital and the reserves as a percentage of their balance sheets. Failure to do so risks destroying the financial solidity of the northern European governments when, in the future, negative shocks force these governments to come to the rescue of their undercapitalised banks. The new responsibilities entrusted to the European Central Bank as the single supervisor in the eurozone create a unique opportunity for that institution to change the regulatory and supervisory culture in the eurozone – one that has allowed the large banks to continue living dangerously, with insufficient capital

Why is there so much Inertia in Inflation and Output? A Behavioral Explanation

Serial correlation in macroeconomics is pervasive. Macroeconomic modellers find it impossible to model this feature without relying on serially correlated shocks. Using a behavioral macroeconomic model, I show that serial correlation in inflation and output can easily be explained in the context that agents do not have rational expectation. This important feature is missing in the standard New Keynesian rational expectations models. The rational expectation models need serially correlated exogenous shocks to account for the high serial correlation in inflation and output while the behavioral model produces serial correlation in these variables endogenously. I also show that inertia in the beliefs about the future is a strong force in producing the serial correlation in inflation and output

What Germany should fear most is its own fear: An analysis of Target2 and current account imbalances. CEPS Working Document No. 368, September 2012

This paper analyzes two claims that have been made about the Target2 payment system. The first one is that this system has been used to support unsustainable current account deficits of Southern European countries. The second one is that the large accumulation of Target2 claims by the Bundesbank represents an unacceptable risk for Germany if the eurozone were to break up. We argue that these claims are unfounded. They also lead to unnecessary fears in Germany that make a solution of the eurozone crisis more difficult. Ultimately, this fear increases the risk of a break-up of the eurozone. Or to paraphrase Franklin Roosevelt, what Germany should fear most is simply its own fear

Identity and educational choice: a behavioral approach

It is puzzling that socioeconomic background greatly affects educational choice. Distinguished from the explanations based on expected utility theory, this paper attempts to explore the psychological mechanisms of generating educational identity1 and schooling choice. It offers a self-signaling model where (1) it incorporates self-esteem concerns into the agent’s payoff function, (2) the investment in schooling not only signals her cognitive ability but also brings the agent into cognitive dissonance and reduction when the perceptions of ability are time-dependent. Using this model, I show a more discriminating analysis of educational choice which combines multi-dimensional factors including socioeconomic background, cognitive and non-cognitive abilities. I identify the conditions under which the high ability agent fails to invest in education. The quality of school and the preschooling are key variables. The model suggests that public policy can help poor children by improving both the early and later education quality at school.identity, educational choice, poverty

Finance and local economic growth: New evidence from China

We study the relationship between finance and growth using a sample of 275 Chinese cities from 2009 to 2018. We exclude bank loans to local governments through the local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and construct a better financial development index which measures the level of loans extended by banks to enterprises and households. We find that financial development in the form of a higher loan-to-GDP ratio leads to lower economic growth. This negative relationship between finance and growth may be attributed to various mechanisms, including discrimination in bank lending, housing market bubbles, and an imbalance in growth between real and financial sectors

Market sentiments and the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone

In this paper we test two theories of the determination of the government bond spreads in a monetary union. The first one is based on the efficient market theory. According to this theory, the surging spreads observed from 2010 to the middle of 2012 were the result of deteriorating fundamentals (e.g. domestic government debt, external debt, competitiveness, etc.). The second theory recognizes that collective movements of fear and panic can have dramatic effects on spreads. These movements can drive the spreads away from underlying fundamentals, very much like in the stock markets prices can be gripped by a bubble pushing them far away from underlying fundamentals. The implication of that theory is that while fundamentals cannot be ignored, there is a special role for the central bank that has to provide liquidity in times of market panic, so as to avoid that countries are pushed into a bad equilibrium. We tested these theories and concluded that there is strong evidence for the second theory. The policy implications are that the role of the ECB as lender of last resort in the government bond markets is an important one. The recent attempts by the German Constitutional Court risk undermining this role and by the same token the stability of the Eurozone

How safe is a safe asset? CEPS Policy Insights No 2018-08/February 2018

The European Systemic Risk Board proposes to create a “safe asset” for the eurozone that is based on a repackaging of the risks of sovereign bonds. The hope is that this financial engineering will stabilise an otherwise unstable system of sovereign bond markets in the eurozone. We argue that a financial system that is fundamentally unstable cannot be stabilised by financial engineering. The ESRB-proposal creates the illusion that the sovereign bond markets in the eurozone can be stabilised without the need to share the risk among sovereigns. We argue that sovereign bond markets can only be stabilised vi