Forecasting Class III and Class IV Milk Prices

Despite the growing volume, trading in milk remains small in comparison to grain and livestock. Part of the reason for limited trading volume is that dairy futures trading is very new compared to grain and livestock trading. There is less experience with risk management strategies and a much smaller research base with respect to basis relationships and price forecasting. Dairy farmers are still "feeling their way." The purpose of this study is to provide a systematic, user-friendly method for forecasting Class III and Class IV prices. The user is allowed to vary regional milk production and stocks of manufactured dairy products to evaluate the sensitivity of point estimates. A sequential process is developed to predict Class III milk prices up to 12 months in advance using widely-published outlook data as predictor variables. The first stage involves deriving monthly U.S. milk supply forecasts using trend extrapolations for regional milk cow numbers and milk production per cow. Users may modify trend values based on personal expectations. In the second stage, the projected monthly U.S. milk supply is allocated to Class III and Class IV manufactured products (butter, cheddar cheese, nonfat dry milk, and dry whey). Underlying these forecasts is a set of econometric relationships that estimate production of the manufactured products based on total milk production and other variables.

Regional Trends in U.S. Milk Production: Analysis and Projections

Livestock Production/Industries,

Scikit-Multiflow: A Multi-output Streaming Framework

Scikit-multiflow is a multi-output/multi-label and stream data mining framework for the Python programming language. Conceived to serve as a platform to encourage democratization of stream learning research, it provides multiple state of the art methods for stream learning, stream generators and evaluators. scikit-multiflow builds upon popular open source frameworks including scikit-learn, MOA and MEKA. Development follows the FOSS principles and quality is enforced by complying with PEP8 guidelines and using continuous integration and automatic testing. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/scikit-multiflow/scikit-multiflow.Comment: 5 pages, Open Source Softwar

Contentious Coexistence: The Function Of Material Exchanges In Venetian-egyptian Relations On The Eve Of The Ottoman Conquest (1480-1517)

This dissertation studies cross-cultural exchanges of material goods in order to better understand early modern encounters between subjects of Venice and the Mamluk Sultanate of Egypt. It focuses on the period 1480 to 1517, when the ascendant Portuguese and Ottoman empires began to alter the balance of power in both the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean. Venetian merchants had by this time established communities in Egypt and the Levant in their search for pepper and other spices, and periodically called in ambassadors to intervene with the Mamluk sultans on their behalf. An examination of gift giving and other exchanges of goods among diplomats, merchants, pilgrims, consuls, and translators therefore serves as a window into the relationship between Venetian and Mamluk subjects in the turbulent years prior to the Ottoman conquest of Egypt in 1517. Making use of anthropological and sociological literature on reciprocity and interaction rituals, this project studies the symbolism contained in the objects exchanged, analyzes the ways in which different transactions constituted communicative acts, and scrutinizes the language of the sources to assess why observers chose to define transactions as licit or illicit. In doing so, it reframes ongoing debates about the Mediterranean, which dispute whether the region constituted an area of cultural confrontation or a shared zone of tolerance. This study reappraises that debate and takes a new position recognizing coexistence while also conceding that harmony was frequently punctuated by bloody moments of ethnic strife. The subjects of Venice and Egypt used objects to interact and communicate in a time of crisis, but with mixed results. Material exchanges at times helped foster cooperation and coexistence, and at other times went awry, engendering hostility between the members of these two regimes

High vancomycin minimum inhibitory concentration and clinical outcomes in adults with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infections: a meta-analysis

SummaryBackgroundPatients with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections caused by isolates with a high but ‘susceptible’ minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) to vancomycin may suffer poor outcomes. The aim of this study was to determine the association of high compared to low vancomycin MICs and clinical outcomes (treatment failure and mortality) in patients with MRSA infections.MethodsPubMed, the Cochrane Library, and electronic abstracts from meetings were queried from January 2000 to July 2010. Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts of studies evaluating outcomes of patients with MRSA infections, using broth microdilution (BMD) or the Etest to determine MIC, for full-text review. Patients participating in included studies were classified into two mutually exclusive groups: high MIC or low MIC. High MIC was defined as MIC ≥1mg/l by BMD or ≥1.5mg/l by Etest. Study-defined failure and mortality were assessed in each group.ResultsFourteen publications and six electronic abstracts met the inclusion criteria, with 2439 patients (1492 high MIC and 947 low MIC). There was no evidence of publication bias or heterogeneity. An increased risk of failure was observed in the high MIC group compared to the low MIC group (summary risk ratio (RR) 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15–1.71). The overall mortality risk was greater in the high MIC group than in the low MIC group (summary RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.08–1.87). Sensitivity analyses showed similar findings for failure (summary RR 1.37, 95% CI 1.09–1.73) and mortality (summary RR 1.46, 95% CI 1.06–2.01) for patients with bacteremia. The study quality was poor-to-moderate, and study-defined endpoints were variable.ConclusionsA susceptible but high MIC to vancomycin is associated with increased mortality and treatment failure among patients with MRSA infections

Estimating Top Income and Wealth Shares: Sensitivity to Data and Methods

Administrative income tax data indicate that U.S. top income and wealth shares are both substantial and larger than shares observed in household surveys. However, these estimates are sensitive to the unit of analysis, the income concept measured in tax records, and, in the case of wealth, to assumptions about the correlation between income and wealth. We constrain a household survey—the Survey of Consumer Finances—to be conceptually comparable to tax records and are able to reconcile the much of the difference between the survey and administrative estimates. Wealth estimates from administrative income tax data are sensitive to model parameters

Growth, Condition, and Trophic Relations of Stocked Trout in Southern Appalachian Mountain Streams

Stream trout fisheries are among the most popular and valuable in the United States, but many are dependent on hatcheries to sustain fishing and harvest. Thus, understanding the ecology of hatchery‐reared trout stocked in natural environments is fundamental to management. We evaluated the growth, condition, and trophic relations of Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis, Brown Trout Salmo trutta, and Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss that were stocked in southern Appalachian Mountain streams in western North Carolina. Stocked and wild (naturalized) trout were sampled over time (monthly; September 2012–June 2013) to compare condition and diet composition and to evaluate temporal dynamics of trophic position with stable isotope analysis. Relative weights (Wr) of stocked trout were inversely associated with their stream residence time but were consistently higher than those of wild trout. Weight loss of harvested stocked trout was similar among species and sizes, but fish stocked earlier lost more weight. Overall, 40% of 141 stomachs from stocked trout were empty compared to 15% of wild trout stomachs (N = 26). We identified a much higher rate of piscivory in wild trout (18 times that of stocked trout), and wild trout were 4.3 times more likely to consume gastropods relative to stocked trout. Hatchery‐reared trout were isotopically similar to co‐occurring wild fish for both δ13C and δ15N values but were less variable than wild trout. Differences in sulfur isotope ratios (δ34S) between wild and hatchery‐reared trout indicated that the diets of wild fish were enriched in δ34S relative to the diets of hatchery‐reared fish. Although hatcheryreared trout consumed prey items similar to those of wild fish, differences in consumption or behavior (e.g., reduced feeding) may have resulted in lower condition and negative growth. These findings provide critical insight on the trophic dynamics of stocked trout and may assist in developing and enhancing stream trout fisheries