SPATIOTEMPORAL MODELING OF AGRICULTURAL YIELD MONITOR DATA1

This paper shows that spatial panel data models can be successfully applied to an econometric analysis of farm-scale precision agriculture data. The application focuses on the estimation of the effect of controlled drainage water management equipment on corn yields. Using field-level precision agriculture data and spatial panel techniques, the yield response equation is estimated using the spatial autoregressive error random effects model with temporal heterogeneity, incorporating spatial dependence in the error term, while controlling for the topography, weather and the controlled drainage treatment. Controlling for random effects allows for the disentanglement of the effects of spatial dependence from spatial heterogeneity and omitted variables, and thus, to properly investigate the yield response. The results show that controlled drainage has a statistically significant effect on corn yields. The effect is generally positive but varies widely from year to year and field-to-field. For the two years of data controlled drainage was linked to a 2.2% increase in field average yield, but that varied from a -2.6% to a +6.5%. Evaluated at mean elevation and slope in the east part of the field, controlled drainage is associated with 10 bu/a increase and a 0.6 bu/a decrease in yields in 2005 and 2006, respectively. In the West part of the field, controlled drainage is associated with a 11 bu/a increase in 2006 and 2.81 bu/a decrease in 2005.Manufactured Housing; corn, drainage, precision agriculture, spatial panel model

UPDATING EX-ANTE ECONOMIC ANALYSES FOR PURDUE IMPROVED CROP STORAGE (PICS) BAGS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: THE CASES OF SENEGAL, KENYA, AND GHANA

Small producers throughout sub-Saharan Africa struggle to protect crops from an array of pests during medium or long-term storage before market sale or home consumption. Storage technologies like hermetic (airtight) Purdue Improved Crop Storage (PICS) bags are proven to provide long-term, reliable protection against many grains and grain legumes pests, without the need for chemical pesticides. However, even if technical efficacy of PICS bags is established, the local market conditions for crop storage should be favorable to encourage sustainable adoption. This may vary by crop and geographic region. Recognizing this need for continued localized analysis before widespread implementation, this report builds on two previous working papers investigating PICS storage profitability. Price data from Senegal, Kenya, and Ghana are analyzed. Importantly, conversions of retail and wholesale price data to producer prices are performed on a dynamic monthly basis instead of assuming a single marketing margin for the entire year. Results indicate highest potential profitability of PICS bags for groundnut and maize storage in Senegal, common beans in Kenya, and long-term maize storage in Ghana. Kenyan maize storage profitability varies significantly by year and region, but is also positive for most markets

Valuing Public Information in Agricultural Commodity Markets:WASDE Corn Reports

Monthly WASDE reports by USDA estimate current and future global supply-utilization balances for various commodities, including corn. Existing literature has shown that markets respond to WASDE releases (news effects) but has not quantified the value or distribution of benefits from those reports. We use Monte Carlo simulations of a quarterly model of the U.S. Corn market to estimate the value of the WASDE forecast and its components. Our results show significant value to market participants from the WASDE reports, roughly $301 million or 0.55$145 million), yield ($188 million), production ($299 million), demand/stocks ($300 million) and exports ($320 million). The benefits of each component do not strictly sum when new information is added because substantial redistribution of benefits occurs, since specific information components help specific interest groups. The expected benefits or losses realized by consumers, producers or traders is often nearly as large as (and sometimes larger than) the net benefits to society from better information. In the base case benefits from WASDE information largely accrues to producers ($153 million) and consumers ($341 million). Traders lose $192 million, as they are presumed to buy at harvest, before valuable demand, stocks and export data is known. Farmers behave as traders when they choose to store, sell forward, or participate directly in futures markets. Thus, the net trader benefit or loss accrues measured

Valuing Public Information in Agricultural Commodity Markets: WASDE Corn Reports

Monthly WASDE reports by USDA estimate current and future global supply-utilization balances for various commodities, including corn. Existing literature has shown that markets respond to WASDE releases (news effects) but has not quantified the value or distribution of benefits from those reports. We use Monte Carlo simulations of a quarterly model of the U.S. corn market to estimate the value of the WASDE forecast and its components. Our results show significant value to market participants from the WASDE reports, roughly $301 million or 0.55$145 million), yield ($188 million), production ($299 million), demand/stocks ($300 million) and exports ($320 million). The benefits of each component do not strictly sum when new information is added because substantial redistribution of benefits occurs, since specific information components help specific interest groups. The expected benefits or losses realized by consumers, producers or traders is often nearly as large as (and sometimes larger than) the net benefits to society from better information. In the base case benefits from WASDE information largely accrues to producers ($153 million) and consumers ($341 million). Traders lose $192 million, as they are presumed to buy at harvest, before valuable demand, stocks and export data is known. Farmers behave as traders when they choose to store, sell forward, or participate directly in futures markets. Thus, the net trader benefit or loss accrues partially to farmers as traders and partially to commercial agents. These results are sensitive to elasticity assumptions that capture both how agents behave in markets and how their welfare is measured

ANALYSIS OF THE PROFITABLILITY OF PICS BAGS FOR THE STORAGE OF ROSELLE GRAINS (Hibiscus sabdariffa) IN THREE REGIONS IN NIGER

Roselle is a multipurpose crop produced for its grain, as well as flowers used in making teas and therapeutic preparations. The study is based on interviews with 164 randomly selected Roselle producers in Dosso, Maradi and Zinder Regions of Niger. Farmers store roselle grain in various containers, such as woven bags, plastic jugs, plastic bags, granaries, etc. which are mostly non-hermetic. Some store with the addition of wood ash, neem leaves (Azadirachta indica), sand or insecticide. Plastic jugs, granaries and plastic bags are used mainly for storing small amounts of roselle while metal drums and woven polypropylene bags are reserved for larger quantities. Overall the portion of roselle grain stored in 2012 in potentially hermetic containers was: Dosso, 22%; Maradi, 29% and Zinder, 26%. In 2012, the percentage reported stored in PICS triple bags was Dosso, 4%; Maradi, 2% and Zinder, 2%. The percentage of the grain quantity stored with insecticide in 2012 was Dosso, 26%; Maradi, 13%, and Zinder zero. The analysis of price fluctuations shows that about 7 months of storage is required for the producers to take advantage of price seasonality. Rozelle prices also vary widely from market to market. Consequently, marketing flexibility is key to profitable commercialization. In most cases storing into the next rainy season (i.e. 7 months) is the most profitable strategy. It is clear from this analysis that the PICS bags are a potential source of profitability for roselle producers in the study areas especially when the storage period is relatively long. For example, the simple rate of return is over 100% even when the PICS bag is only used one year compared to selling at harvest. PICS technology is much more cost effective than the traditional method of storage. After 7 months of storage without either insecticide or hermetic storage method, the return on investment is largely negative because of very high storage losses

ANALYSIS OF THE PROFITABILITY OF PICS BAGS FOR THE STORAGE OF BAMBARA GROUNDNUT SEEDS IN THREE REGIONS OF NIGER

This study documents Bambara groundnut storage practices and estimates the economic returns from alternative storage and marketing strategies in Niger. A random sample of Bambara groundnut growers in the main Bambara groundnut growing areas of Niger were interviewed. A total of 164 respondents participated. Slightly over half of the Bambara groundnut stored is in potentially hermetic containers including double and triple layer bags, plastic jugs and metal drums. Use of storage insecticide varied by region. Over 12% of the quantity stored was treated with insecticide in the Maradi Region, but only about 2% in the other regions. Use of the Purdue Improved Crop Storage bag also varied by region. In the Dosso region in 2012, 47% of the Bambara groundnut was stored in PICS bags, but only 8% in Maradi and 4% in Zinder. Bambara groundnut prices vary seasonally, and they vary widely from market to market. Consequently, marketing flexibilty is key to profitable commecialization. In most cases storing into the next rainy season (i.e. 8 to 9 months) is the most profitable strategy. Estimates indicate that producers using traditional storage technologies should market their Bambara groundnuts quickly because the storage damage can be severe. In contrast, PICS bags are quite profitable for Bambara groundnut producers in the study areas, especially when longer-term storage conditions are required. Even when the PICS bag is only used one season, the simple rate of return is over 100%