Do Loan-to-Value Ratio Regulation Changes Affect Canadian Mortgage Credit?

ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the relationship in the Canadian housing market between loan-to-value (“LTV”) ratios and residential mortgage credit over the 1981-2012 time period. More specifically, I look to determine whether LTV ratio regulation provides a mechanism with which to slow down the potentially overheated Canadian housing market. Due to the endogeneity of many macroeconomic variables, I use a structural vector autoregression (“SVAR”) to investigate this question. Results indicate that three of the four major LTV regulation changes that occurred during this timeframe either had insignificant effects on mortgage credit, or caused it to move contrary to expectations. Only the 2008 tightening of LTV was weakly significant. Therefore, regulation changes to LTV ratios are unlikely to be successful in slowing down the overheated housing market in Canada, which may force central bankers to use broader monetary policy or other forms of macroprudential regulation

Monetary Policy Shocks from the EU and US: Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper addresses the debate in the literature on how developing countries are affected by foreign monetary policy shocks. I analyze how contractionary monetary policy shocks originating in different regions, specifically the Euro Area (“EU”) and United States (“US”), affect a set of rarely investigated sub-Saharan African (“SSA”) countries. Foreign monetary policy shocks are identified using changes in central bank futures rates, and are inserted into a domestic structural vector autoregression (“SVAR”). Results differ depending on which of the EU or US shocks monetary policy and whether or not the recipient SSA country has a floating or fixed exchange rate regime. Specifically, floating exchange rate countries have a mostly negative GDP response following either shock due to a reliance on capital flows and external debt, and the implications these have for domestic interest rate responses. Fixed exchange rate countries have mixed GDP responses following the EU shock, as both trade and the effect of capital control usage on interest rates play an important role, while US shocks produce positive GDP responses as aid from the US dominates both trade and interest rates. The implications of these results for floating exchange rate countries is that diversification of foreign external debt and a reduction in reliance on international capital may be beneficial. For fixed exchange rate countries the implication is that capital controls can be a positive tool in the development process

Monetary Policy Shocks from the EU and US: Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper addresses the debate in the literature on how developing countries are affected by foreign monetary policy shocks. I analyze how contractionary monetary policy shocks originating in different regions, specifically the Euro Area (“EU”) and United States (“US”), affect a set of rarely investigated sub-Saharan African (“SSA”) countries. Foreign monetary policy shocks are identified using changes in central bank futures rates, and are inserted into a domestic structural vector autoregression (“SVAR”). Results differ depending on which of the EU or US shocks monetary policy and whether or not the recipient SSA country has a floating or fixed exchange rate regime. Specifically, floating exchange rate countries have a mostly negative GDP response following either shock due to a reliance on capital flows and external debt, and the implications these have for domestic interest rate responses. Fixed exchange rate countries have mixed GDP responses following the EU shock, as both trade and the effect of capital control usage on interest rates play an important role, while US shocks produce positive GDP responses as aid from the US dominates both trade and interest rates. The implications of these results for floating exchange rate countries is that diversification of foreign external debt and a reduction in reliance on international capital may be beneficial. For fixed exchange rate countries the implication is that capital controls can be a positive tool in the development process

Distributional Impacts of Low for Long Interest Rates

This paper asks whether tepid inflation in Canada since the financial crisis can in part be explained by the effects of monetary policy on inequality. Using different structural vector autoregression models we show that expansionary monetary policy post-crisis has led to increased inequality as more resources are shifted away from lower-income individuals, which in general have higher marginal propensities to consume. As a result, aggregate demand has not risen as much as it otherwise would have, leading to a more muted inflationary response. Our results suggest that failure to account for the heterogeneity of consumption responses across the income distribution could lead to an underestimation of the magnitude of inflation’s response to a monetary policy shock

Distributional Impacts of Low for Long Interest Rates

This paper asks whether tepid inflation in Canada since the financial crisis can in part be explained by the effects of monetary policy on inequality. Using different structural vector autoregression models we show that expansionary monetary policy post-crisis has led to increased inequality as more resources are shifted away from lower-income individuals, which in general have higher marginal propensities to consume. As a result, aggregate demand has not risen as much as it otherwise would have, leading to a more muted inflationary response. Our results suggest that failure to account for the heterogeneity of consumption responses across the income distribution could lead to an underestimation of the magnitude of inflation’s response to a monetary policy shock

Interventions to improve emergency department use for mental health reasons:Protocol for a mixed-methods systematic review

BACKGROUND: Healthcare resources are limited and unnecessary, and inappropriate emergency department use is now a highly visible healthcare priority. Individuals visiting the emergency department for mental health-related reasons are often amongst the most frequent presenters. In response, researchers and clinicians have created interventions to streamline emergency department use and several primary studies describe the effects of these interventions. Yet, no consensus exists on the optimal approach, and information on the quality of development, effectiveness, acceptability, and economic considerations is hard to find. The purpose of this study is to systematically review interventions designed to improve appropriate use of the emergency department for mental health reasons. METHOD: A mixed-method systematic review using Joanna Briggs Methodology. Search combining electronic databases (EMBASE, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, HealthSTAR, PROQUEST, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health) and secondary searches (grey literature and hand search with consultation). Two independent reviewers will screen titles and abstracts using predetermined eligibility criteria and a third reviewer will resolve conflicts. Full texts will also be screened by two independent reviews and conflicts resolved in a consensus meeting with a third reviewer. A pilot-tested data extraction form will be used to retrieve data relevant to the study objectives. We will assess the quality and of all included studies. Data describing interventions will be summarized using logic models and reported narratively. Quality of development will be assessed using the Oxford Implementation Index. For data on intervention effectiveness, we will assess statistical heterogeneity and conduct a meta-analysis using a random effects method, if appropriate. For interventions that cannot be pooled, we will report outcomes narratively and descriptively. Qualitative data on acceptability will be synthesized using meta-aggregation and an economic evaluation of interventions will be done. The reporting of this protocol follows the PRISMA-P statement. DISCUSSION: Using a combined systematic review methodology and integrated knowledge translation plan, the project will provide decision makers with concrete evidence to support the implementation and evaluation of interventions to improve emergency department use for mental health reasons. These interventions reflect widespread priorities in the area of mental health care. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018087430