Gallman revisited: Blacksmithing and American manufacturing, 1850-1870

In nineteenth-century America, blacksmiths were a fixture in every village, town, and city, producing a diverse range of products from axes to wheels and services from repairs to horse shoeing. In constructing his historical GNP accounts, Gallman opted to exclude these “jacks-of-all-trades” from the manufacturing sector, classifying them instead as part of the service sector. However, using establishment-level data for blacksmiths from the federal censuses of manufactures for 1850, 1860, and 1870, we re-examine that choice and show that blacksmiths were an important, if declining, source of manufactured goods. Moreover, as quintessential artisan shops, a close analysis of their structure and operation helps resolve several key puzzles regarding industrialization in the nineteenth century. As “jacks-of-all-trades,” they were generally masters of none (except for their service activities). Moreover, the historical record reveals that several of those who managed to achieve mastery moved on to become specialized manufacturers of that specific product. Such specialized producers had higher productivity levels than those calling themselves blacksmiths producing the same goods, explaining changes in industry mix and the decline of the blacksmith in manufacturing.Accepted manuscrip

Towards a typology of American agriculture in the northern United States

Bibliographic footnotes

Steam Power, Establishment Size, and Labor Productivity Growth in Nineteenth Century American Manufacturing

We use establishment level data from the 1850-80 censuses of manufacturing to study the correlates of the use of steam power and the impact of steam power on labor productivity growth in nineteenth century American manufacturing. A key result is that establishment size mattered: large establishments, as measured by employment, were much more likely to use steam power than smaller establishments. Controlling for firm size, location, industry, and other establishment characteristics, steam powered establishments had higher labor productivity than establishments using hand or animal power, or water power. We also find that the impact of steam on labor productivity was increasing in establishment size. The diffusion of steam power was an important factor behind the growth of labor productivity, accounting for 22 to 41 percent of that growth between 1850 and 1880, depending on establishment size.

“Automation” of manufacturing in the late nineteenth century: the hand and machine labor study

Recent advances in artificial intelligence and robotics have generated a robust debate about the future of work. An analogous debate occurred in the late nineteenth century when mechanization first transformed manufacturing. We analyze an extraordinary dataset from the late nineteenth century, the Hand and Machine Labor study carried out by the US Department of Labor in the mid-1890s. We focus on transitions at the task level from hand to machine production, and on the impact of inanimate power, especially of steam power, on labor productivity. Our analysis sheds light on the ability of modern task-based models to account for the effects of historical mechanization.Published versio

"Part-Year Operation in 19th Century American Manufacturing: Evidence from the 1870 and 1880 Censuses"

Using unpublished data contained in samples from the manuscripts of the 1870 and 1880 censuses of manufactures--the earliest comprehensive estimates available--this study examines the extent and correlates of part-year manufacturing during the late 19th century. While the typical manufacturing plant operated full-time, part-year operation was not uncommon; its likelihood of this varied across industries and locations and with plant characteristics. Workers in such plants received somewhat higher monthly wages than those in firms that operated year round, compensating them somewhat for their losses and possible inconvenience.

Capital Deepening in United States Manufacturing, 1850-1880

Establishment-level data are used to study capital deepening – increases in the capital-output ratio – in U. S. manufacturing from 1850 to 1880. In both nominal and real terms, the aggregate capital-output ratio rose substantially over the period. Capital deepening is shown to be especially important in the larger firms and was associated with the diffusion of inanimate power. Although capital deepening implies a declining average product of capital, rates of return were not necessarily falling if capital’s share was increasing. However, there is strong evidence that returns did, in fact, decline.

Capital Deepening in American Manufacturing, 1850-1880

We use establishment-level data to study capital deepening -- increases in the capital-output ratio -- in American manufacturing from 1850 to 1880. In nominal terms, the aggregate capital-output ratio in our samples rose by 30 percent from 1850 to 1880. Growth in real terms was considerably greater -- 70 percent -- because prices of capital goods declined relative to output prices. Cross-sectional regressions suggest that capital deepening was especially importnat in the larger firms and was positively associated with the diffusion of steam-powered machinery. However, even after accounting for shifts over time in such factors, much of the capital deepening remains to be explained. Although capital deepening implies a fall in the average product of capital it does not necessarily imply that rates of return were declining. However, we find strong evidence that returns did decline. We also show that returns were decreasing in firm size, although the data are not sufficiently informative to tell us why it was so.

"Productivity in Manufacturing and the Length of the Working Day: Evidence from the 1880 Census of Manufactures"

Data from the manuscript census of manufacturing are used to estimate the effects of the length of the working day on output and wages. We find that the elasticity of output with respect to daily hours worked was positive but less than one--implying diminishing returns to increases in working hours. When the annual number of days worked is held constant, the average annual wage is found to be positively related to daily hours worked, but again the elasticity less than 1.0. At the modal value of daily hours (ten hours per day), it appears that from the standpoint of employers, the marginal benefits of a shorter working day (a lower wage bill) were approximately offset by the marginal cost (lower output).

Productivity in Manufacturing and the Length of the Working Day: Evidence from the 1880 Census of Manufactures

Data from the manuscript census of manufacturing are used to estimate the effects of the length of the working day on output and wages. We find that the elasticity of output with respect to daily hours worked was positive but less than one—implying diminishing returns to increases in working hours. When the annual number of days worked is held constant, the average annual wage is found to be positively related to daily hours worked, but again the elasticity less than 1.0. At the modal value of daily hours (ten hours per day), it appears that from the standpoint of employers, the marginal benefits of a shorter working day (a lower wage bill) were approximately offset by the marginal cost (lower output).

Agricultural Improvements and Access to Rail Transportation: The American Midwest as a Test Case, 1850-1860

During the 1850s, land in U.S. farms surged by more than 100 million acres while almost 50 million acres of land were transformed from their raw, natural state into productive farmland. The time and expense of transforming this land into a productive resource represented a significant fraction of domestic capital formation at the time and was an important contributor to American economic growth. Even more impressive, however, was the fact that almost half of these total net additions to cropland occurred in just seven Midwestern states which comprised barely less than one-eighth of the land area of the country at that time. Using a new GIS-based transportation database linked to county-level census, we estimate that at least a quarter (and possibly two-thirds or more) of this increase can be linked directly to the coming of the railroad to the region. Farmers responded to the shrinking transportation wedge and rising revenue productivity by rapidly expanding the area under cultivation and these changes, in turn, drove rising farm and land values.