Using Unemployment Rates as Instruments to Estimate Returns to Schooling

I use state unemployment rates during a person’s teenage years to estimate the returns to schooling. A higher unemployment rate reduces the opportunity costs of attending school. Using the same 1980 Census data set that Angrist and Krueger (1991) use, I also estimate returns to schooling with a modified version of their quarter-of-birth instrument. The estimates from the two-stage least squares (2SLS) model using the unemployment rate and the model using the quarter-of-birth instruments are almost identical. In addition, these 2SLS estimates are larger than the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates, supporting this counterintuitive, yet prevalent, result in the literature

For Better or for Worse, But How About a Recession?

In light of the current economic crisis, we estimate hazard models of divorce to determine how state and national unemployment rates affect the likelihood of divorce. With 89,340 observations over the 1978-2006 period for 7633 couples from the 1979 NLSY, we find mixed evidence on whether increases in the unemployment rate lead to overall increases in the likelihood of divorce, which would suggest countercyclical divorce probabilities. However, further analysis reveals that the weak evidence is due to the weak economy increasing the risk of divorce only for couples in years 6 to 10 of marriage. For couples in years 1 to 5 and couples married longer than 10 years, there is no evidence of a pattern between the strength of the economy and divorce probabilities. The estimates are generally stronger in magnitude when using national instead of state unemployment rates.

Disparities in Criminal Court Referrals to Drug Treatment and Prison for Minority Men

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2013.301222National Institute on Drug AbuseNational Institute on Drug Abuse (grant R01-DA-022179)

How Marine Recruiter Quality and Other Factors Affect Enlistee Quality

NPS NRP Executive SummaryFostering a high-quality force in the USMC is essential for readiness, efficiency, and cost-minimization. This study seeks to inform the USMC on optimal strategies to reduce attrition and elicit a high-quality force by identifying factors contributing to recruiting higher-quality enlistees. We will use individual-enlistee-level, recruiter-level, and station (RSS)-level aggregated analyses. We first must determine what constitutes quality among enlistees. Our main enlistee-quality measure will be attrition at boot camp and at other intervals in the 1st term. These provide measures of the quality of the match between the enlistee and the Marines. We will also examine more conventional measures of quality (AFQT, education, waivers, PFT, FITREPS). Specifically, our research questions will determine: 1. How does the quality of the recruiter (or recruiters in a station) affect various measures of the quality of the enlistee, such as 1st term attrition? 2. How do other factors affect the quality of enlistees? 3. How does the diversity of recruiters in a recruiting station in minority areas affect the success of the station in attracting high-quality minority recruits? 4. What policy changes should be made to the screening and assignment of canvassing recruiters that lead to higher-quality enlistees, lower 1stterm attrition, and a higher-quality force?Marine Corps Recruiting Command (MCRC)HQMC Manpower and Reserve Affairs (M&RA)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

How Marine Recruiter Quality and Other Factors Affect Enlistee Quality

NPS NRP Project PosterFostering a high-quality force in the USMC is essential for readiness, efficiency, and cost-minimization. This study seeks to inform the USMC on optimal strategies to reduce attrition and elicit a high-quality force by identifying factors contributing to recruiting higher-quality enlistees. We will use individual-enlistee-level, recruiter-level, and station (RSS)-level aggregated analyses. We first must determine what constitutes quality among enlistees. Our main enlistee-quality measure will be attrition at boot camp and at other intervals in the 1st term. These provide measures of the quality of the match between the enlistee and the Marines. We will also examine more conventional measures of quality (AFQT, education, waivers, PFT, FITREPS). Specifically, our research questions will determine: 1. How does the quality of the recruiter (or recruiters in a station) affect various measures of the quality of the enlistee, such as 1st term attrition? 2. How do other factors affect the quality of enlistees? 3. How does the diversity of recruiters in a recruiting station in minority areas affect the success of the station in attracting high-quality minority recruits? 4. What policy changes should be made to the screening and assignment of canvassing recruiters that lead to higher-quality enlistees, lower 1stterm attrition, and a higher-quality force?Marine Corps Recruiting Command (MCRC)HQMC Manpower and Reserve Affairs (M&RA)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Why the DEA STRIDE data are still useful for understanding drug markets

In 2001, use of the STRIDE data base for the purpose of analyzing drug prices and the impact of public policies on drug markets came under serious attack by the National Research Council (Manski, et al., 2001; Horowitz, 2001). While some of the criticisms raised by the committee were valid, many of the concerns can be easily addressed through more careful use of the data. In this paper, we first disprove Horowitz's main argument that prices are different for observations collected by different agencies within a city. We then revisit other issues raised by the NRC and discuss how certain limitations can be easily overcome through the adoption of random coefficient models of drug prices and by paying serious attention to drug form and distribution levels. Although the sample remains a convenience sample, we demonstrate how construction of city-specific price and purity series that pay careful attention to the data and incorporate existing knowledge of drug markets (e.g. the expected purity hypothesis) are internally consistent and can be externally validated. The findings from this study have important implications regarding the utility of these data and the appropriateness of using them in econmic analyses of supply, demand and harms.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Why the DEA STRIDE Data are Still Useful for Understanding Drug Markets

In 2001, use of the STRIDE data base for the purposes of analyzing drug prices and the impact of public policies on drug markets came under serious attack by the National Research Council (Manski et al., 2001; Horowitz, 2001). While some of the criticisms raised by the committee were valid, many of the concerns can be easily addressed through more careful use of the data. In this paper, we first disprove Horowitz's main argument that prices are different for observations collected by different agencies within a city. We then revisit other issues raised by the NRC and discuss how certain limitations can be easily overcome through the adoption of random coefficient models of drug prices and by paying serious attention to drug form and distribution levels. Although the sample remains a convenience sample, we demonstrate how construction of city-specific price and purity series that pay careful attention to the data and incorporate existing knowledge of drug markets (e.g. the expected purity hypothesis) are internally consistent and can be externally validated. The findings from this study have important implications regarding the utility of these data and the appropriateness of using them in economic analyses of supply, demand and harms.

Assessing Inclusion Behaviors and Impact of Inclusion within the Fleet

NPS NRP Executive SummaryThis project supports the Navy’s efforts to promote diversity and inclusion (D&I), which are recognized as strategic imperatives that give the Navy a warfighting advantage against our adversaries. The study utilizes both quantitative and qualitative approaches to understand the major contributing factors to an inclusive and diverse command, accomplishing four research objectives: (1) developing metrics to assess behaviors of inclusion within the fleet; (2) assessing inclusion behaviors within the fleet using the developed metrics; (3) determining the most impactful D&I competencies for building inclusion; and (4) identifying command practices that contribute to greater acceptance of diversity. We develop and introduce a survey instrument to assess Personal Inclusion Factors (individuals’ feelings of being personally included within their command) and Command Core Inclusion Competencies (individuals’ beliefs about how their commands demonstrate practices that promote diversity and inclusion) suitable for a Navy context. The instrument captures best practices and validated metrics for promoting and assessing D&I in organizations and tailors them to the Navy and Sailors’ work. We fielded this survey to 489 active-duty Navy personnel (enlisted and officers) asking them to report on both their current and past commands. We find that females across all race/ethnicities on average report lower feelings of inclusion and rate commands lower on Core Command Inclusion Competencies than their male counterparts. This gender difference is stronger for sea versus shore commands. Participants also answered open-ended questions about the competencies that they believed were most important for promoting D&I in the fleet. "Inclusive leadership" emerged as a dominant theme; in particular, participants felt most included in commands where leadership valued their perspectives and ideas and where Sailors felt heard on a day-in, day-out basis.N1 - Manpower, Personnel, Training & EducationThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Assessing Inclusion Behaviors and Impact of Inclusion within the Fleet

NPS NRP Project PosterThis project supports the Navy’s efforts to promote diversity and inclusion (D&I), which are recognized as strategic imperatives that give the Navy a warfighting advantage against our adversaries. The study utilizes both quantitative and qualitative approaches to understand the major contributing factors to an inclusive and diverse command, accomplishing four research objectives: (1) developing metrics to assess behaviors of inclusion within the fleet; (2) assessing inclusion behaviors within the fleet using the developed metrics; (3) determining the most impactful D&I competencies for building inclusion; and (4) identifying command practices that contribute to greater acceptance of diversity. We develop and introduce a survey instrument to assess Personal Inclusion Factors (individuals’ feelings of being personally included within their command) and Command Core Inclusion Competencies (individuals’ beliefs about how their commands demonstrate practices that promote diversity and inclusion) suitable for a Navy context. The instrument captures best practices and validated metrics for promoting and assessing D&I in organizations and tailors them to the Navy and Sailors’ work. We fielded this survey to 489 active-duty Navy personnel (enlisted and officers) asking them to report on both their current and past commands. We find that females across all race/ethnicities on average report lower feelings of inclusion and rate commands lower on Core Command Inclusion Competencies than their male counterparts. This gender difference is stronger for sea versus shore commands. Participants also answered open-ended questions about the competencies that they believed were most important for promoting D&I in the fleet. "Inclusive leadership" emerged as a dominant theme; in particular, participants felt most included in commands where leadership valued their perspectives and ideas and where Sailors felt heard on a day-in, day-out basis.N1 - Manpower, Personnel, Training & EducationThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.