Rainfall Shocks, Markets, and Food Crises: Evidence from the Sahel

How do markets respond to extreme rainfall in West Africa? This paper examines the effect of weather on grain market performance in Niger, a country increasingly affected by drought and severe food crises over the past two decades. Using a dataset that combines information on rainfall, agricultural production, prices and transaction costs, I exploit rainfall variation to estimate the impact of drought on grain market performance between 1997 and 2006. Time series tests suggest that grain markets in Niger respond to supply shocks and that markets are more integrated during drought years. Exploiting the exogeneity of extreme rainfall in a difference-in-differences framework supports these findings: drought reduces grain price dispersion across markets. This impact is stronger as a higher percentage of markets are affected by drought, as was the case in 2004/2005, the year of a severe food crisis. The results suggest that early warning systems in West Africa should focus on the spatial impact of drought at the sub-regional level, as well as monitor prices in key forecasting markets during the harvest period.Markets, food crisis, Africa, climate change, vector autoregressive model

Mobiles and mobility: The Effect of Mobile Phones on Migration in Niger

Labor markets in developing countries are subject to a high degree of frictions. We report the results from a randomized evaluation of an adult education program (Project ABC) in Niger, in which students learned how to use simple mobile phones as part of a literacy and numeracy class. Overall, our preliminary results suggest that access to this technology substantially influenced seasonal migration in Niger, increasing the likelihood of migration by at least one household member by 7 percentage points and the number of households' members engaging in seasonal migration. Evidence suggests that there are some heterogeneous impacts of the program, with a higher probability of a household member migrating in one region. These effects do not appear to be driven by differences in observable characteristics of households or differential effects of drought during the survey period. Rather we posit that they are largely explained by the effectiveness of mobile phones as a search technology: Students in ABC villages used mobile phones in more active ways and communicated more with migrants within Niger. These initial results suggest that simple and cheap information technology can be harnessed to affect labor mobility among rural populations. --

ABC, 123: Can you text me now? The Impact of a Mobile Phone Literacy Program on Educational Outcomes.

We report the short-term results from a randomized evaluation of a mobile phone literacy and numeracy program (Project ABC) in Niger, in which adult literacy students learned how to use mobile phones as part of a literacy and numeracy class. Students in ABC villages showed substantial gains in numeracy exam scores. There is also evidence of heterogeneity in program effects across regions, suggesting the impact is context dependent. These results were stronger in one region, for women and for participants younger than 45. There was also evidence of persistent impacts: six months after the end of the first year of classes, students in ABC villages retained what they had learned better than the non-ABC students. These effects do not appear to be driven by differences in teacher quality and motivation, nor student attendance.Education; literacy; information technology; program evaluation; Nigeria

ABC, 123: The Impact of a Mobile Phone Literacy Program on Educational Outcomes

CGD non-resident fellow Jenny Aker and co-authors report on the results from a randomized evaluation of a mobile phone education program (Project ABC) in Niger, in which adult students learned how to use mobile phones as part of a literacy and numeracy class. Overall, students demonstrated substantial improvements in literacy and numeracy test scores. There is also evidence of persistent impacts: six months after the end of the first year of classes, students in the program retained what they had learned better than others. The effects do not appear to be driven by differences in teacher quality or in teacher and student attendance. The results suggest that simple and relatively cheap information and communication technology can serve as an effective and sustainable learning tool for rural populations.Education

Is Information Power? Using Mobile Phones and Free Newspapers during an Election in Mozambique*

African elections often reveal low levels of political accountability. We assess different forms of voter education during an election in Mozambique. Three interventions providing information to voters and calling for their electoral participation were randomized; an SMS-based information campaign, an SMS hotline for electoral misconduct, and the distribution of a free newspaper. To measure impact, we look at official electoral results, reports by electoral observers, behavioral and survey data. We find positive effects of all treatments on voter turnout. We observe that the distribution of the newspaper led to more accountability-based participation and to a decrease in electoral problems.International Growth Centre, Foundation Open Society Institut

Can mobile phones improve agricultural outcomes? Evidence from a randomized experiment in Niger

The widespread growth of mobile phone coverage worldwide has offered new potential for increasing rural households’ access to information and public and private transfers. Yet despite the proliferation of mobile phone-based interventions in the agricultural sector, there is mixed evidence on their impact. We report the results of a randomized evaluation in Niger, in which rural households increased their access to information technology and their capacity to use it. We find that households in treated villages planted a more diverse basket of crops, particularly marginal cash crops grown by women. This did not increase the likelihood of selling these crops or the farm-gate price received, suggesting that other market failures need to be addressed to improve farmers’ welfare

Can ABC lead to sustained 123? The medium-term effects of a technology-enhanced adult education program

Can information technology preserve the short-term learning gains associated with adult education programs? This study estimates the medium-term impacts of a mobile phone module (Project ABC) that was added to a standard adult education curriculum and for which there were significant short-term impacts on educational outcomes. Two years after the end of the program, students in ABC villages had reading scores that were significantly higher than those in standard adult education classes, and women and younger students were better able to decode numbers. This can be partially attributed to more active mobile phone usage in ABC villages. Households in ABC villages also were more likely to own certain durable assets, had higher levels of food security, and were more likely to save. Overall, these results suggest that short-term learning gains associated with technology can persist, especially if students have the opportunity to practice using that technology after the end of classes

Borders, Ethnicity and Trade

Do national borders and ethnicity contribute to market segmentation between and within countries? This paper uses unique and high-frequency data on narrowly-defined goods to gauge the extent to which a national border impedes trade between developing countries (Niger and Nigeria). Using a regression discontinuity approach, we find a significant price change at the national border, but one that is lower in magnitude than that found for industrialized countries. Yet unlike that literature, and in line with important characteristics of African economies, we investigate the role of ethnicity in mitigating and exacerbating the border effect. We find that a common ethnicity is linked to lower price dispersion across countries, yet ethnic diversity creates an internal border within Niger. The primary mechanism behind the internal border effect appears to be related to the role of ethnicity in facilitating access to credit in rural markets.

Are Borders Barriers? The Impact of International and Internal Ethnic Borders on Agricultural Markets in West Africa

This paper addresses two important economic issues for Africa: the contribution of national borders and ethnicity to market segmentation and integration between and within countries. Market pair regression analysis provides evidence of higher conditional price dispersion for both a grain and a cash crop between markets separated by the Niger-Nigeria border than between two markets located in the same country. A regressiondiscontinuity analysis also confirms a significant price change at the international border. The international border effect is lower, however, if the cross-border markets share a common ethnicity. Ethnicity is also linked to higher price dispersion within Niger; we find a significant intranational border effect between markets in different ethnic regions of the country. This suggests that ethnic similarities diminishing international border effects could enhance international market integration, and ethnic differences could contribute to intranational market segmentation in sub-Saharan Africa. We provide suggestive evidence that the primary mechanism behind the internal border effect is related to the role of ethnicity in facilitating access to credit in agricultural markets. We argue that the results are not driven by differences in price volatility or observables across borders.Africa, border effects, agriculture, regression discontinuity design