Assessment of valley cold pools and clouds in a very high-resolution numerical weather prediction model

The formation of cold air pools in valleys under stable conditions represents an important challenge for numerical weather prediction (NWP). The challenge is increased when the valleys that dominate cold pool formation are on scales unresolved by NWP models, which can lead to substantial local errors in temperature forecasts. In this study a 2-month simulation is presented using a nested model con- figuration with a finest horizontal grid spacing of 100 m. The simulation is compared with observations from the recent COLd air Pooling Experiment (COLPEX) project and the model’s ability to represent cold pool formation, and the surface energy balance is assessed. The results reveal a bias in the model long-wave radiation that results from the assumptions made about the sub-grid variability in humidity in the cloud parametrization scheme. The cloud scheme assumes relative humidity thresholds below 100 % to diagnose partial cloudiness, an approach common to schemes used in many other models. The biases in radiation, and resulting biases in screen temperature and cold pool properties are shown to be sensitive to the choice of critical relative humidity, suggesting that this is a key area that should be improved for very high-resolution modeling

A case‐study of cold‐air pool evolution in hilly terrain using field measurements from COLPEX

A case‐study investigation of cold‐air pool (CAP) evolution in hilly terrain is conducted using field measurements made during IOP 16 of the COLd‐air Pool EXperiment (COLPEX). COLPEX was designed to study cold‐air pooling in small‐scale valleys typical of the UK (∼100–200 m deep, ∼1 km wide). The synoptic conditions during IOP 16 are typical of those required for CAPs to form during the night, with high pressure, clear skies and low ambient winds. Initially a CAP forms around sunset and grows uninterrupted for several hours. However, starting 4 hr after sunset, a number of interruptions to this steady cooling rate occur. Three episodes are highlighted from the observations and the cause of disruption attributed to (a) wave activity, in the form of gravity waves and/or Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) instability, (b) increases in the above‐valley winds resulting from the development of a nocturnal low‐level jet (NLLJ), (c) shear‐induced mixing resulting from instability of the NLLJ. A weakly stable residual layer provides the conditions for wave activity during Episode 1. This residual layer is eroded by a developing NLLJ from the top down during Episode 2. The sustained increase in winds at hill‐top levels – attributed to the NLLJ – continue to disrupt the CAP through Episode 3. Although cooling is interrupted, the CAP is never completely eroded during the night. Complete CAP break‐up occurs some 3.5 hr after local sunrise. This case‐study highlights a number of meteorological phenomena that can disrupt CAP evolution even in ideal CAP conditions. These processes are unlikely to be sufficiently represented by current operational weather forecast models and can be challenging even for high‐resolution research models