29 research outputs found

    Der Buchdruck und der Aufstieg Amsterdams als Nachrichtenzentrum um 1600

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    ClimateBench v1.0: a benchmark for data-driven climate projections

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    Many different emission pathways exist that are compatible with the Paris climate agreement, and many more are possible that miss that target. While some of the most complex Earth System Models have simulated a small selection of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, it is impractical to use these expensive models to fully explore the space of possibilities. Such explorations therefore mostly rely on one-dimensional impulse response models, or simple pattern scaling approaches to approximate the physical climate response to a given scenario. Here we present ClimateBench—the first benchmarking framework based on a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, AerChemMIP and Detection-Attribution Model Intercomparison Project simulations performed by a full complexity Earth System Model, and a set of baseline machine learning models that emulate its response to a variety of forcers. These emulators can predict annual mean global distributions of temperature, diurnal temperature range and precipitation (including extreme precipitation) given a wide range of emissions and concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and aerosols, allowing them to efficiently probe previously unexplored scenarios. We discuss the accuracy and interpretability of these emulators and consider their robustness to physical constraints such as total energy conservation. Future opportunities incorporating such physical constraints directly in the machine learning models and using the emulators for detection and attribution studies are also discussed. This opens a wide range of opportunities to improve prediction, robustness and mathematical tractability. We hope that by laying out the principles of climate model emulation with clear examples and metrics we encourage engagement from statisticians and machine learning specialists keen to tackle this important and demanding challenge

    Impact of integrating disaster risk reduction philosophies into infrastructure reconstruction projects in Sri Lanka

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    Major impacts on infrastructures due to natural and man-made hazards could result in secondary and additional impacts, compounding the problem for those communities already affected by the hazard. Integration of disaster risk reduction (DRR) philosophies into infrastructure projects has been an important solution to mitigate and prevent such disaster risks, as well as for a speedy recovery after disasters. “Vulnerability reduction” is defined by the research community as an enabler which facilitates the process of DRR. However, there is a research need to identify the most beneficial DRR strategies that would result in vulnerability reduction in an effective way. As part of this main aim, this paper seeks to explore the nature of various vulnerabilities within infrastructure reconstruction projects and their respective communities and to evaluate the DRR practises within these projects. Finally the paper attempts to map the effects of integration of DRR into infrastructure reconstruction on vulnerability reduction of infrastructure reconstruction projects and the communities which benefited from such projects. This study adopts the case study approach and the paper is entirely based on data collated from semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire survey conducted within one case study (a water supply and sanitation reconstruction project) in Sri Lanka and expert interviews conducted in Sri Lanka and the United Kingdom. Results reveal that emergency preparedness strategies are the most important group of DRR strategies, while physical/technical strategies are also very important. However, none of the emergency preparedness strategies are satisfactorily implemented, while most of the physical/technical strategies are adequately implemente
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