Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment

We construct indexes of investor sentiment for six major stock markets and decompose them into one global and six local indexes. Relative market sentiment is correlated with the relative prices of dual-listed companies, validating the indexes. Both global and local sentiment are contrarian predictors of the time series of major markets' returns. They are also contrarian predictors of the time series of cross-sectional returns within major markets: When sentiment from either global or local sources is high, future returns are low on various categories of difficult to arbitrage and difficult to value stocks. Sentiment appears to be contagious across markets based on tests involving capital flows, and this presumably contributes to the global component of sentiment.International finance ; Financial markets ; Stock market

Multivariate Spatiotemporal Hawkes Processes and Network Reconstruction

There is often latent network structure in spatial and temporal data and the tools of network analysis can yield fascinating insights into such data. In this paper, we develop a nonparametric method for network reconstruction from spatiotemporal data sets using multivariate Hawkes processes. In contrast to prior work on network reconstruction with point-process models, which has often focused on exclusively temporal information, our approach uses both temporal and spatial information and does not assume a specific parametric form of network dynamics. This leads to an effective way of recovering an underlying network. We illustrate our approach using both synthetic networks and networks constructed from real-world data sets (a location-based social media network, a narrative of crime events, and violent gang crimes). Our results demonstrate that, in comparison to using only temporal data, our spatiotemporal approach yields improved network reconstruction, providing a basis for meaningful subsequent analysis --- such as community structure and motif analysis --- of the reconstructed networks

A somatic mutation in moesin drives progression into acute myeloid leukemia

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) arises when leukemia-initiating cells, defined by a primary genetic lesion, acquire subsequent molecular changes whose cumulative effects bypass tumor suppression. The changes that underlie AML pathogenesis not only provide insights into the biology of transformation but also reveal novel therapeutic opportunities. However, backtracking these events in transformed human AML samples is challenging, if at all possible. Here, we approached this question using a murine in vivo model with an MLL-ENL fusion protein as a primary molecular event. Upon clonal transformation, we identified and extensively verified a recurrent codon-changing mutation (Ar

Estimating the Spins of Stellar-Mass Black Holes by Fitting Their Continuum Spectra

We have used the Novikov-Thorne thin disk model to fit the continuum X-ray spectra of three transient black hole X-ray binaries in the thermal state. From the fits we estimate the dimensionless spin parameters of the black holes to be: 4U 1543-47, a* = a/M = 0.7-0.85; GRO J1655-40, a* = 0.65-0.8; GRS 1915+105, a* = 0.98-1. We plan to expand the sample of spin estimates to about a dozen over the next several years. Some unresolved theoretical issues are briefly discussed.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, 1 table; to appear in "Astrophysics of Compact Objects" eds. Y. F. Yuan, X. D. Li, D. Lai, AI

The Rise and Decline of Car Use in Beijing and Shanghai

Chinese cities have primarily evolved around walking, bicycling and public transport with their dense, linear form and mixed land use. The recent urban growth spurt has involved private motorisation, but because of land constraints and not fearing urban density, as in Anglo-Saxon cities, the same dense urbanism has been maintained. This means that automobiles do not easily fit into this traditional fabric and especially the historic walking fabric. Issues like congestion and air quality have become major constraints to further growth. Using Beijing and Shanghai as case studies, the next phase of urban and transport development now appears to be to reduce car use with the dramatic growth in urban rail as in most developed cities in the twenty-first century. This decoupling of car use from economic growth is consistent with other developed cities but is a first for emerging cities, hence the paper aims to explain this pattern from the cultural, political and especially urban fabric perspectives. The application to other Chinese cities and emerging cities is now possible following Beijing and Shanghai’s lead