False-alarm probability in relation to over-sampled power spectra, with application to Super-Kamiokande solar neutrino data

The term "false-alarm probability" denotes the probability that at least one out of M independent power values in a prescribed search band of a power spectrum computed from a white-noise time series is expected to be as large as or larger than a given value. The usual formula is based on the assumption that powers are distributed exponentially, as one expects for power measurements of normally distributed random noise. However, in practice one typically examines peaks in an over-sampled power spectrum. It is therefore more appropriate to compare the strength of a particular peak with the distribution of peaks in over-sampled power spectra derived from normally distributed random noise. We show that this leads to a formula for the false-alarm probability that is more conservative than the familiar formula. We also show how to combine these results with a Bayesian method for estimating the probability of the null hypothesis (that there is no oscillation in the time series), and we discuss as an example the application of these procedures to Super-Kamiokande solar neutrino data

Economic Consequences of Health Status: A Review of the Evidence

The correlation between health and economic performance is extremely robust across communities and over time. Many factors exogenous to income play an important role in determining health status, including a number of geographical, environmental, and evolutionary factors. This suggests the existence of simultaneous impacts of health on wealth and wealth on health. Potential health impacts on national economic performance are explored, and some important unanswered questions are identified.health, economic growth, human capital

THE ROLE OF EXPECTATIONS AND HETEROGENEOUS PREFERENCES FOR CONGESTION IN THE VALUATION OF RECREATION BENEFITS

Studies of recreation congestion generally utilize nonmarket valuation techniques to determine the use level and entrance price that maximize aggregate recreation benefits for a specific recreation area. This paper improves upon these previous studies by relaxing the assumption of homogeneous preferences among visitors of the same recreation area and accounting for visitor expectations of congestion. The results indicate that failing to account for heterogeneous preferences for congestion by time of visit leads to overestimates of the benefits of relieving peak-time congestion, while accounting for expectations raises questions about the validity of the standard optimal use model.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The 2004 Niger Food Crisis: What Role Can Price Discovery Play in Famine Early Warning Systems?

The 2005 food crisis centered in Niger received worldwide attention and extensive media coverage. Crops suffered from poor rainfall and were plagued by locusts throughout the growing season. Malnutrition flourished with the sudden disruption in food supplies. One-fifth of Niger's children suffered from moderate to severe forms of malnutrition by the summer of 2005. In an era of increased awareness and the introduction of famine early warning systems, the development community was left wondering why they were for the most part caught off guard by the food crisis. This paper tests whether market prices and price discovery could have played an active role in detecting the food crisis. Directed acyclic graphs are used to test whether price discovery mechanisms within Niger's millet markets were ahead of the early warning systems. Results suggest that as early as October 2005 markets in Arlit and the Dosso province had price anomalies that appeared to begin signaling the upcoming food crisis. This market based discovery came about two months earlier than the warnings issued by the regional early warning networks.Food Security and Poverty,

Direct Current Electrical Stimulation Increases the Fusion Rate of Spinal Fusion Cages

Study Design. A randomized experimental evaluation of direct current stimulation in a validated animal model with an experimental control group, using blinded radiographic, biomechanical, histologic, and statistical measures. Objectives. To evaluate the efficacy of the adjunctive use of direct current stimulation on the fusion rate and speed of healing of titanium interbody fusion cages packed with autograft in a sheep lumbar interbody fusion model. Summary of Background Data. Titanium lumbar interbody spinal fusion cages have been reported to be 90% effective for single-level lumbar interbody fusion. However, fusion rates are reported to be between 70% and 80% in patients with multilevel fusions or with risk factors such as obesity, tobacco use, or metabolic disorders. The authors hypothesized that direct current stimulation would increase the fusion rate of titanium interbody fusion cages packed with autograft in a sheep lumbar interbody fusion model. Methods. Twenty-two sheep underwent lumbar discectomy and fusion at L4–L5 with an 11- × 20-mm Bagby and Kuslich (BAK) cage packed with autograft. Seven sheep received a BAK cage and no current. Seven sheep had a cage and a 40-μA current applied with a direct current stimulator. Eight sheep had a BAK cage and a 100-μA current applied. All sheep were killed 4 months after surgery. The efficacy of electrical stimulation in promoting interbody fusion was assessed by performing radiographic, biomechanical, and histologic analyses in a blinded fashion. Results. The histologic fusion rate increased as the direct current dose increased from 0 μA to 40 μA to 100 μA (P \u3c 0.009). Histologically, all animals in the 100-μA group had fusions in both the right and left sides of the cage. Direct current stimulation had a significant effect on increasing the stiffness of the treated motion segment in right lateral bending (P \u3c 0.120), left lateral bending (P \u3c 0.017), right axial rotation (P \u3c 0.004), left axial rotation (P \u3c 0.073), extension (P \u3c 0.078), and flexion (P \u3c 0.029) over nonstimulated levels. Conclusion. Direct current stimulation increased the histologic and biomechanical fusion rate and the speed of healing of lumbar interbody spinal fusion cages in an ovine model at 4 months

Worldsheet Instanton Corrections to the Kaluza-Klein Monopole

The Kaluza-Klein monopole is a well known object in both gravity and string theory, related by T-duality to a "smeared" NS5-brane which retains the isometry around the duality circle. As the true NS5-brane solution is localized at a point on the circle, duality implies that the Kaluza-Klein monopole should show some corresponding behavior. In this paper, we express the Kaluza-Klein monopole as a gauged linear sigma model in two dimensions and show that worldsheet instantons give corrections to its geometry. These corrections can be understood as a localization in "winding space" which could be probed by strings with winding charge around the circle.Comment: 20 pages, REVTeX, v2: minor equation correctio

Second-generation p-values: improved rigor, reproducibility, & transparency in statistical analyses

Verifying that a statistically significant result is scientifically meaningful is not only good scientific practice, it is a natural way to control the Type I error rate. Here we introduce a novel extension of the p-value - a second-generation p-value - that formally accounts for scientific relevance and leverages this natural Type I Error control. The approach relies on a pre-specified interval null hypothesis that represents the collection of effect sizes that are scientifically uninteresting or are practically null. The second-generation p-value is the proportion of data-supported hypotheses that are also null hypotheses. As such, second-generation p-values indicate when the data are compatible with null hypotheses, or with alternative hypotheses, or when the data are inconclusive. Moreover, second-generation p-values provide a proper scientific adjustment for multiple comparisons and reduce false discovery rates. This is an advance for environments rich in data, where traditional p-value adjustments are needlessly punitive. Second-generation p-values promote transparency, rigor and reproducibility of scientific results by a priori specifying which candidate hypotheses are practically meaningful and by providing a more reliable statistical summary of when the data are compatible with alternative or null hypotheses.Comment: 29 pages, 29 page Supplemen